Friday, March 29th, 2024

Why the last 12 months have been disastrous for Russia in the Ukraine war, what lies ahead, understand from the expert


Portsmouth (UK): A year ago, when the shabby Russian army entered Ukraine, very few people said anything in favor of Ukraine. After all, he/she had spent eight years trying unsuccessfully to fight pro-Russian separatists (heavily backed by Moscow) in the east of his/her country. Meanwhile, Russia was ostensibly developing and modernizing its armed forces and using them with decisive effect in Syria. Analysts focused on Russia’s so-called ‘hybrid’ ‘approach to war’ are puzzled by two things. Firstly, the capability of an army is not measured by the shiny uniforms and the hue and cry. Second, a well-armed nation united, motivated and well-led is a very formidable opponent.

The Russian army used to look good in parades, but behind the paint and uniforms, corruption, fraud and inefficiency caused its condition to fall into disrepair. The people manning its modern equipment were led by generals who failed to observe the essential rule that good planning and preparation do not lead to poor performance. The soldiers were not trained properly or at all, and had little or no idea of ​​what they had to do. Battle planning must involve a deep understanding of the environment in which the army is to operate – this is called ‘battlefield intelligence preparation’. While Western generals are making very sensible comments on these matters, they have made exactly the same mistakes in their disastrous wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Russian Black Sea Fleet ship sunk

This was already indicated when units of Russia’s elite airborne troops were wiped out at Hostomel airfield near Kiev. It took only a month to drive the disorganized and dilapidated military units of Russia out of Kiev. A well-known Russian tank brigade met the same fate in the Battle of Chernihiv and was defeated by a Ukrainian armored unit one-tenth its size. It was one of many embarrassing defeats for Moscow’s war machine. All at sea (and in the air) the Ukrainian air defense was equally organized and prepared while the Russian Air Force was incomplete in every way. Ukraine turned them around, ensuring the survival of most of its aircraft and an intact and superbly efficient ground-based air defense system was able to save Ukraine.

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Even inside Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks on its most important and secure targets have forced Russia’s most capable bombers to seek protection. In the maritime domain, Ukraine not only sank the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia. It was also able to recapture Snake Island, which is not only an iconic symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, but a key asset in the Battle of the Western Black Sea. Russian ships now rarely venture out, and when they do, they usually return to port to avoid Ukrainian attacks by firing cruise missiles at civilian targets. What to Expect After winning the Battle of Kherson and retaking the Kharkiv region after a vigorous offensive, preparations are made for the next and decisive phase. The war – for now – is going on like the last days of World War I-style, where artillery dominates.

Russia now cashing in on its only advantage

Massive numbers of poorly trained soldiers and mercenaries. It has been said that quantity is a virtue of its own, but the validity of that axiom in modern warfare has serious limits. This is only true if that volume can be protected by some sort of armored mobility and protection (besides deep trench systems). Western aid has been important and will be important in two major respects. First of all, Ukraine needs to strengthen its air and ground defenses and reorganize them along high-quality NATO lines. NATO and other Western tanks, missiles and particularly precise gun and rocket systems such as the brutally effective HIMERS have given Ukraine the power to counter Russian advantages in artillery.

Second, given the number of casualties in Ukraine, especially among its most experienced units, training will become more and more important. As the Russians learned early in the war, the equipment was of little use unless the soldiers were properly trained to use it. It is a herculean task of coordinating infantry, tank artillery and air power, especially in combined arms warfare. Ukraine will strike back, perhaps in the spring, and will need all the help it can get if it is to drive Russian forces back to their borders. Compared with World War II, the moral there was clear to Britain and its allies, this is the “good war” of our generation. In the last one year it has been well fought by men and women defending their people, country and culture.

Ukraine’s army will now have to avoid counter-attack

They are also defending what remains of the international order. After defeating Russian forces in the battles of Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson, the Ukrainian army must now fend off counter-offensives and carefully demonstrate to the West that they can regain and secure their country. Their success over the next few months would define the shape of the rest of the war, determining whether there would be victory this year, or whether it would be a longer and more severe struggle. Last week, General Mark Miley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, argued that neither side is likely to win this year, saying Russia has already lost strategically. If nothing else, Ukraine has demonstrated that it can and will surprise us, generals, analysts and everyone else, during this phase of the war. They will do it again this year.

(Frank Ledwidge, University of Portsmouth)

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