Rain till October, then severe cold… Expert told about the weather condition of the coming month

New Delhi: This year, India may experience severe winters due to La Nina. There is a possibility that La Nina may become active in mid-September. Due to this, the rainy season here may extend till October, while severe cold will also trouble people in many parts of the country. This year, first the scorching heat, then the devastating monsoon troubled people. Now similar claims are coming out regarding winter. According to IMD, La Nina is expected to become active in September. Due to this, there may be severe cold from mid-December to January. La Nina usually causes a drop in temperature. It also causes more rain in winters. Due to this, winters are longer and more intense.

During La Nina, the eastern winds push the sea water towards the west. Due to this, the sea surface becomes cold. According to the IMD’s estimate, there is a 66 percent chance of La Nina becoming active between September and November. There is more than 75 percent chance of it remaining in winter. Monsoon ends in India by October 15. But this time due to the condition of La Nina, it may be quite late. It may also affect the north-eastern monsoon coming to South India at the end of October.

The year is turning out to be like 1999

This year the behaviour of monsoon has been unusual. There is a lot of change in the incidents of excessive rain and floods across the country. This time the monsoon did not take a break after the initial halt in the winds in June. In August, the cyclone in the Arabian Sea also surprised the meteorologists. There is still a possibility of excessive rain in September. According to experts, this can happen till the end of October as well. La Nina is yet to start, in such a situation, the conditions that are being created are making the situation similar to that of 1999.

Odisha faced two consecutive cyclones

According to the Meteorological Department, in October 1999, two consecutive cyclones hit Odisha. The most devastating of these was the Odisha Super Cyclone. This cyclone killed more than ten thousand people. Talking about monsoon, between June 1 and September 1, eight states have received less than normal rainfall. The country has received seven percent more rainfall during this period. Nagaland and Manipur have received the least rainfall. There has been 28 percent less rainfall here. Bihar, Punjab and Chandigarh have received 25 percent less rainfall. One-fourth of the country’s districts have received less or very less rainfall.

What are the hottest years?

There was extreme heat in April of the year 2024 and 1999. April 1999 was the hottest April of the 20th century. In this, the temperature remained 40 degrees or more for about fifteen days in most parts of northwestern and central India. On the other hand, the humid heat in April this year broke records. Similarly, 1999 was also a La Nina year and before that a strong El Nino was formed in 1997-98. This situation is also similar to 2024.

Why will it rain till October?

Professor Raghu Murtugude of IIT Bombay said that this year the monsoon arrived on time, but there was less rain in June. There was better rainfall in July and August, but the distribution of rain showed some familiar patterns and some new hotspots. The central eastern part had less rainfall and now there may be more rain here. The reason for this is that there are signs of rain till October. At the same time, a hot spot of dry anomalies remains in eastern Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh. It is very difficult to understand this. The northern region and the foothills of the Himalayas have also received 23 percent less rainfall.