Why was PM Modi invited to the SCO meeting, does Pakistan want to improve relations or is it just a formality?

New Delhi: In a significant diplomatic development, Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has officially invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Islamabad this October. The invitation is linked to the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Government meeting. However, given the historically tense relations between these two countries, the possibility of Modi visiting Pakistan seems quite remote. This is exemplified by Islamabad’s failed attempts to host the SAARC summit in the last eight years due to ongoing tensions with India.

India had also sent an invitation and Zardari had come to Goa

India had also sent an invitation to former Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for the meeting of Foreign Ministers to be held in Goa in 2023. The invitation received by Modi from Pakistan is also a formality in accordance with this multilateral framework of the SCO. This is the reason why Pakistan is not expecting PM Modi’s presence in the SCO meeting despite sending an invitation. The reason for Pakistan’s apprehension is not only its strained relationship with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it his/her tradition to attend the summits of the SCO Council of Heads of State instead of the meetings of the heads of government.
Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar participates in the meetings of heads of government.

Modi has his/her own tradition for SCO

Modi has been a regular participant in the SCO heads of state summits, though he/she could not attend the summit held in Kazakhstan earlier this year due to the ongoing Parliament session. Nevertheless, he/she assured Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of India’s support for the summit, reflecting India’s commitment to this security-focused alliance. The bloc comprises Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well as China, Russia and Iran.

SCO membership is a symbol of strategic autonomy

India has tried to play an active role in the organisation since joining the SCO as an observer in 2005 and gaining full membership along with Pakistan in 2017. This engagement is particularly important for India given the backdrop of the US’s rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan. India wants to exercise its strategic autonomy through its participation in both the Quad and the SCO. Moreover, the SCO charter prohibits discussion on bilateral matters such as Jammu and Kashmir. For this reason too, India has no problem joining the SCO.

SCO support with conditions

India supports the SCO, but not unconditionally. Jaishankar has minutely highlighted the group’s core mission to fight terrorism. India never explicitly mentions Pakistan, but cautions against duplicity in thought and practice on the issue. Modi too has emphasised the need to find a solution to the scourge of terrorism. he/she has also hinted at China’s influence on UN sanctions against individuals linked to designated terrorist organisations in Pakistan.

India’s strategy in view of connectivity

India recognises the importance of connectivity within the SCO. India is clear that such initiatives must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states. This is especially important in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Interestingly, India is the only SCO member that refrains from supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative as it has refused to join the economic strategies proposed under the SCO framework due to alleged Chinese dominance.

Will PM Modi go to Islamabad?

As the date of the SCO meeting approaches, the Indian government has to take a crucial decision on whether to go or not. The Ministry of External Affairs has confirmed Modi’s invitation but has refrained from making a statement about his/her likely attendance. If Jaishankar attends, as he/she did at the meeting in Bishkek last year, a bilateral meeting with his/her Pakistani counterpart is likely. However, it is important to note that during his/her visit to Goa last year, Jaishankar met Bhutto Zardari without any formal bilateral meeting.

Pakistan weakened in all respects

G. Parthasarathy, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, believes that Jaishankar should go ahead with the meeting of heads of government, but any decision about bilateral discussions should depend on the prevailing circumstances. Currently, Pakistan is facing severe economic difficulties, lacking both internal and external financial stability. It is also facing disappointed hopes of the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s diplomatic relations with Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also turned towards India, reducing its influence in the region.

Pakistan has wrong expectations from India on Jammu and Kashmir

The Indian government is wary of recent terror incidents in Jammu and any attempt to disrupt the upcoming elections in the region, prompting Modi to warn Pakistan against using terrorism and proxy warfare. Jaishankar has reiterated that India will respond dynamically to both positive and negative changes in relations with Pakistan.

At the same time, it is important to understand that Pakistan does not see its invitation to Modi as merely a gesture of goodwill but hopes that India will reverse its 2019 decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir for any meaningful dialogue to commence. From India’s perspective, the key issue is Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism.

Now, Jammu and Kashmir is due to go to the assembly elections. The Indian government may soon restore its full statehood. Pakistan says that these steps do not take away the right of self-determination of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. However, demanding more from India on this front seems baseless to many. The Indian government has maintained its firm stance. It argues that the only matter left for discussion is Pakistan’s illegal occupation of a part of Kashmir.

There is a ceasefire, but relations have not improved

India and Pakistan have lacked adequate bilateral contact since the failed attempt to resume dialogue in 2015. Although a ceasefire was successfully negotiated along the Line of Control in 2021, its effect could not be restored. The main reason for this is Pakistan’s expectations regarding Kashmir which can never be fulfilled. It was hoped that the return of the Sharif brothers to power in Pakistan could reduce tensions with India. However, concrete progress in this direction is still a mirage. Hence, there is no ray of hope in the current environment.