Yahya Sinwar Killing: Could ‘The End’ of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar be a chance for peace?

Author: Aydin Sezer
While West Asia was discussing the timing of a possible Israeli attack on Iran, Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar was assassinated. This was a surprise for some people. But, after the assassinations of almost all the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, many people also expected that Sinwar, the second most powerful person in Hamas after Ismail Haniya, who was killed a week earlier, would also be eliminated. Of course, there is a possibility that Sinwar’s death may have been accidental. Although israel The killing of Sinwar is being presented as a major military success. Some Israeli sources say that his/her death was not a planned murder, but the result of an accidental encounter between military units on the ground.

America-Israel Vs Hamas-Iran

Israeli PM Netanyahu described Sinwar’s killing as a new phase, after which Hamas’ dominance over Gaza will end. “With Sinwar’s death, we have dealt a blow to the evil forces, but our mission is not yet accomplished,” Netanyahu said. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz linked the date of the assassination to the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack. he/she said that ‘Sinwar, who played an important role in the October 7 massacre, was killed by Israeli military forces a year later.’ US President Biden also commented on this murder. he/she said, ‘This is a good day for America and Israel, a moment of relief for Israel.’ Vice President Kamala Harris said that ‘justice has been done.’

Within Hamas, Sinwar’s death was expressed with sadness. The pro-Hamas post said that ‘Sinwar knew very well that he/she would not die a natural death in bed. he/she died fighting with his/her weapon, as he/she wanted to do. Meanwhile, Iran’s military posted on This post was made on Sunday. It said, ‘Commander Yahya Sinwar: I have well memorized this sentence of Imam Ali, in which it is said that there are two days in a person’s life. A day when death is not your destiny, and a day when death is your destiny. On the first day, no one can harm you, and on the second day, no one can save you.’

after sunday

Sinwar, whose ‘codename’ was Abu Ibrahim. he/she was dubbed by Israel the ‘Butcher of Khan Yunis’ after his/her birthplace in the Khan Yunis refugee camp in southern Gaza. The killing comes barely 10 weeks after Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. The founder of Hamas’s military wing, Sinwar, 62, spent nearly 22 years in Israeli prisons. he/she was released in 2011 along with 1,026 Palestinians in a prisoner swap for a kidnapped Israeli soldier. Sinwar, known for his/her harsh punishment of Palestinians who allegedly collaborated with Israel, was elected leader of Hamas in Gaza in 2017. he/she was the ‘de facto ruler’ and the second most powerful person in Hamas after Haniyeh.

Sinwar’s death will undoubtedly weaken Hamas, and its ability to run the organization may also be affected. But no one expects that Hamas’s military activities will stop completely. Sinwar’s death is said to have created a void, affecting not only the internal structure of Hamas but also the future of anti-Israel movements in West Asia. Regional alliances can be expected to realign and reshape the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

time for politics

The search within the organization to replace Sinwar has emphasized the role of Hamas’s political wing. Hamas’s interim leader Khaled Mashal may, in fact, become more influential. As a result, the peace process and negotiations with Israel are likely to yield rapid results. This is an opportunity to take concrete steps towards peace in Gaza. Some experts say that this murder has raised hopes for a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities. However, such incidents can often increase tensions over time, leading to new conflicts.

Given that Haniyeh, who was in favor of negotiations with Israel, was also assassinated in Tehran, it is not difficult to imagine that Khaled Mashal could be targeted next. Israel, Iran or America? On whose side these killings are actually committed is another question. While it is true that the killing of every prominent Hamas and Hezbollah figure raises hopes for peace, we should not be optimistic about a breakthrough until after the US elections or until January, if Trump is elected.

Other groups in Gaza may take advantage of the power vacuum created to expand their influence. In particular, they could take a more active role in operations in Gaza. They can hope to compensate Hamas’s military position to some extent. The largest organization after Hamas is the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement, which will try to turn this situation into an opportunity.

Then there is victory!

With Sinwar’s death, Fatah will undoubtedly become more prominent in the political conflict, which has so far fallen out of the narrative among Palestinians. This could potentially put the Palestinian movement back on the path to peace. The international legitimacy and recognition of this party, established by Yasser Arafat and controlling the Palestinian Authority, will be further strengthened. Thus, Sinwar’s death could have positive consequences for Fatah chief Mahmoud Abbas and the Arab monarchies who support him/her.

It goes without saying that Arab monarchies are allergic to fundamentalist religious groups and Hezbollah, Iran’s representative in West Asia. It must be said that he/she welcomed Sinwar’s death. If this happens, we can expect that in a few months Hamas will look like an organization that has buried its animosity and gone to sleep indefinitely. Of course, the fire of their struggle will not be completely extinguished.
(The author is a former diplomat)