Will BJP win Jammu and Kashmir elections relying on Muslims, in the list of first 15 candidates only 7 are Hindus

New Delhi: BJP’s first list for Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections came on Monday. The party first released a list of 44 candidates, but it was withdrawn shortly after. Later, a new revised list of 15 candidates was released by the party. All the 15 candidates in this new list are the same as the list released earlier. BJP has released a re-list of candidates for Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections on Monday. These include the names of 15 candidates of the first phase. There is no change in this. Earlier, the party had released a list of 44 names at 10 am, which was withdrawn within 1 hour. At around 11 am, the party deleted its list from social media handle X. The names of 3 famous faces, two former deputy CMs Nirmal Singh, Kavinder Gupta and Jammu and Kashmir party president Ravindra Raina, were not in the removed list.
In fact, a meeting of the BJP’s Central Election Committee was held under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, in which the party’s top leadership, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President JP Nadda, participated. During this, the strategy to get a majority in the 90 assembly seats of Jammu and Kashmir was discussed. It is believed that the BJP has also planned to win this election relying on Muslim candidates and Muslim voters. At least 8 of the 15 candidates released just now are Muslims. Let’s understand from experts what is the electoral mathematics of the BJP.

In the list of 15 candidates, there are eight Muslims and seven Hindus

There are eight Muslim and seven Hindu candidates in the BJP list, out of which a woman candidate has been fielded on one seat. Voting will be held on 24 seats in the first phase of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections. BJP has released names for only 15 seats. At present, the candidates for the first phase of nine seats are yet to be announced. The first phase of voting in Jammu and Kashmir is to be held on 18 September.
BJP’s formula for assembly elections, will fight alone in Jammu, will bet on independents in Kashmir

Who is BJP’s only woman candidate Shagun Parihar?

The Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded Shagun Parihar, niece of Anil Parihar, one of the veteran BJP leaders, from Kishtwar seat. Shagun Parihar is the daughter of Ajit Parihar. BJP has fielded Shagun Parihar considering Anil Parihar’s dominance in Kishtwar, Doda and Bhaderwah districts. On 1 November 2018, Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists killed BJP leader Anil Parihar, who was a strong voice of Hindus in Kishtwar, and his/her brother Ajit Parihar. Anil Parihar was an active member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. In 2008, Anil Parihar got a ticket from the Panthers Party, but he/she lost. After this, he/she joined the BJP. he/she helped in strengthening the BJP in his/her area.

Entry in 2014, sidelined since 2019… BJP has made a big move with the return of Jammu and Kashmir’s ‘magician’ Ram Madhav

The last assembly elections were held in 2014

The last assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held in 2014. Then BJP and PDP formed a coalition government. The government fell after the coalition broke in 2018. After this, Governor’s rule remained in the state for 6 months (according to the Jammu and Kashmir Constitution at that time). After this, President’s rule was imposed. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held amidst President’s rule, in which BJP returned to the Center with a huge majority. After this, on 5 August 2019, the BJP government abolished Article 370 and divided the state into two union territories (Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh). In this way, assembly elections are being held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years.

BJP alone will fight against India alliance

In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP has decided to contest on its own. Congress has joined hands with National Conference. This time India Alliance will be in a stronger position. In such a situation, BJP will have to play some different tricks to fight the India Alliance. It is possible that it may repeat the successful strategy tried in the Lok Sabha elections, 2024 in the assembly elections as well.
BJP does a U-turn within an hour, withdraws the first list of candidates released for Jammu and Kashmir elections

This move defeated the opposition in Muslim majority seats

In the 2024 general elections, the BJP had fielded candidates on Jammu and Udhampur seats of Jammu region, while it did not contest the elections on Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag seats. Due to this move of the BJP, veteran leaders like NC leader Omar Abdullah and PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti lost the elections in Baramulla. Independent Sheikh Abdul Rashid alias Engineer Rashid succeeded in becoming an MP. In this assembly election too, instead of contesting elections themselves on many Muslim-dominated seats of Kashmir region, a plan has been made to support independent candidates.

Only 43 seats can make BJP king

Dr. Rajiv Ranjan Giri, Assistant Professor at Delhi University, says that to gain power in Jammu and Kashmir, BJP will have to win 46 out of 90 seats. It is putting all its efforts to win 35 to 37 seats out of 43 in Jammu region. In 2014, BJP had wiped out all the parties in Jammu region. At that time, BJP was the second largest party to win assembly seats after PDP. In such a situation, this time too, BJP is preparing to contest the elections with full force for the 43 seats in Jammu region. At the same time, there is a plan to win 10 to 12 seats in Kashmir region.

BJP wants to win the elections in the valley by relying on Muslim candidates

Dr. Rajiv Ranjan Giri says that this time BJP wants to proceed cautiously in the state. That is why it is changing the list again and again. This is the reason why BJP can either field Muslim candidates on Muslim dominated seats in Kashmir region or it can support independent candidates. This experiment of BJP was quite successful earlier also. BJP has included Chaudhary Zulfiqar Ali, PDP leader and minister in Mehbooba Mufti government, in its fold. Jammu region is Hindu dominated while Kashmir region is dominated by Muslims.

Allegation: Number of seats increased to increase the influence of Hindus

Two years after the removal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, the government delimited the assembly seats in such a way that Jammu got six additional seats. At the same time, Kashmir got only one additional seat. Now the number of assembly seats here has increased to 90. Before 2019, there were 37 assembly seats in Jammu and 46 in Kashmir. After this, BJP was accused of increasing the number of seats in Jammu and Kashmir to increase the influence of Hindus in electoral politics. However, political analysts say that despite some electoral success, BJP has not been able to create its influence on the ground. This can also be a reason behind changing the list repeatedly.

BJP’s best performance was in 2014

BJP performed best in the 2014 assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Then it emerged as the second largest party. At that time BJP had formed the government in alliance with PDP. BJP had won 25 seats in Jammu out of a total of 87. This was the last assembly election, because in 2018 the alliance between BJP and PDP broke, after which Governor’s rule was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir. BJP performed well in the local elections held in the year 2020. BJP had also won three seats in Kashmir then.

BJP’s door-to-door campaign a hit in Kashmir

Rajiv Ranjan Giri says that in the last few years, local BJP leaders have also worked extensively to increase their base in Kashmir by starting ‘door-to-door campaign’. During this campaign also, BJP and Sangh workers went among the Muslims and told them about the policies of the Modi government and tried to connect them with the mainstream of employment and development in Jammu and Kashmir. In such a situation, BJP did not field any candidate from Kashmir Valley in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is believed that this campaign can give BJP a big victory.

BJP will capture both Hindu majority seats in 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Like 2019, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both the seats of Hindu-dominated Jammu are currently with the BJP. In 2019, Jugal Kishore Sharma from Jammu and Jitendra Singh from Udhampur won the election, but the BJP does not have any of the three seats in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley. Out of the total 5 Lok Sabha seats, the seat of Baramulla is with an independent while the seats of Srinagar and Anantnag are with the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference.