Why is the Modi government on the backfoot? From mid-term elections to attack on the neighbour… what are the options

New Delhi: Why has the Modi government come on the back foot? The continuous reversals or U-turns indicate this. Be it the withdrawal of the Supreme Court’s decision on the creamy layer in the Scheduled Castes or the U-turn on lateral entry. Looking at this attitude of the government, it seems as some people jokingly say that the government is afraid of angering the ‘Dalit Brahmins’. After the government’s U-turn, the question that arises is what happened to the BJP’s agenda of nation first?

Many issues of the government are lying in cold storage

Apart from this, there are many controversial issues which are lying in cold storage. Many economic reforms including Uniform Civil Code (UCC), Waqf Board Amendment Bill 2024, Digital India Act and New Industrial Policy may be postponed. Instead, the government will have to face the opposition’s demands for caste census. On the other hand, farmers have again talked about agitation and protests. Here the youth facing unemployment and economic difficulties are also standing against the government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategy is to focus on the foreign front. This is evident from his/her recent visits to Russia, Ukraine and the US tour in September. However, these measures are likely to be only partially successful.

But why is this so?

Indeed, Modi’s real strength comes from his/her electoral victories and the support of the people, not from embracing foreign leaders and making somewhat exaggerated claims about India’s growing importance in the world. Who can deny that he/she is on the back foot electorally, not as strong as he/she would like to be? So what is the way out of this?

Are mid-term elections the only option?

Should the BJP look at the option of mid-term elections to strengthen itself again? But what is the guarantee that this will be successful? The BJP will try to return to power with a massive mandate. Like in the elections held after the 2002 Gujarat riots, where Modi again won a thumping majority. We will remember that Modi had called for a new mandate after the Gujarat riots earlier that year.

Modi had won hearts in Gujarat elections

On February 27, a train carrying kar sevaks from Ayodhya was set on fire at Godhra. The coach in which the kar sevaks were trapped was burned, killing about 60 people. More than a thousand people were killed and several thousand displaced in the riots that followed. The state held fresh elections on December 12. Modi returned to power with a landslide majority, with the Bharatiya Janata Party winning 127 of the 182 assembly seats. he/she became Gujarat’s longest-serving 14th chief minister, won an unprecedented third term in December 2012 and returned to the Centre as India’s 14th prime minister in May 2014.

Will you be able to repeat the Gujarat record?

The question is, can Modi repeat that feat now? Nothing is impossible in politics, but then again, you cannot come to the same place twice. The second time or the time after that-it will be a different place, a different time, different circumstances and of course, different results. One thing is clear: Modi is no longer as young as he/she was in 2002. 22 years take a toll on one’s energy and capabilities.

Central elections are a tough job

Besides, central elections are far more complex than state elections. Every state has different priorities and compulsions. Managing the narrative in 28 states and eight union territories is no joke. The party and its cadre are also tired of the general elections held a few months ago. So, even if there are mid-term elections, we are nowhere close to it. But more importantly, there is no single issue right now on which Modi can dissolve Parliament and seek a fresh mandate.

Air strike will not do anything

These days the government is not only grappling with unrest and protests within the country, but the situation outside the country’s borders is also not good. The rapidly deteriorating situation in Bangladesh is a matter of concern. Growing Islamization and anti-India activities there are becoming a big challenge. Similarly, there is instability all over the world with wars in Ukraine and Israel. To come back to power, Modi will not need a small strike like Balakot in 2019, but a very big attack on the scale of the partition of Pakistan and liberation of Bangladesh by Indira Gandhi in 1971.

Can India really attack?

There is a lot of talk, especially on social media among security advocates and extreme Hindus, that India may launch an attack to widen our ‘chicken neck’ connecting West Bengal to the North East. From a military point of view, this is not a very difficult operation. But its political and diplomatic fallout could be far beyond expectations. Worse, it could have long-term strategic and military consequences. Whichever way we look at it, this will be a very risky operation, requiring courage, determination, resources and reserves that will shake up the entire country.

Not India’s attacking style

Does Modi and his/her cabinet have the guts to take on such a big and audacious task? Certainly, this has not been India’s style, not only as a republic but even before. We have rarely attacked our enemies. We do stand up to defend ourselves from attacks. The Mughals and the British who ruled India even before Independence spent their energies on defending our borders or on internal conquests rather than attacking other countries. Though the British attacked and conquered Burma in 1885, their Afghanistan campaign had little success.

At the moment, Modi’s options are limited. But as India’s shrewdest political leader, we can be sure that he/she is far from a status quo monger. Keeping his/her cards close to his/her chest, as is his/her nature, he/she is constantly thinking about how to extend his/her power in the present and secure his/her legacy for the future.