What will happen to PoK, will there be a change in Modi’s foreign policy in his/her third term?

Saibal Dasgupta
No matter how much the opposition celebrates, the reality is that Narendra Modi’s third consecutive victory has further enhanced his/her global image. Now he/she will present his/her views as the leader of a coalition government, which has many political parties. This will only strengthen India’s geopolitical position.

Victory of democracy: This general election gave a comeback to the opposition parties, which is being seen as a victory for Indian democracy in the West and neighboring countries. The country’s democratic credentials are an important reason why the Modi government has been able to smoothly transition from the non-aligned philosophy of previous governments to a pragmatic multi-aligned policy.

Previous team: There seems to be no scope for major changes in the country’s foreign policy. This is because the four personalities who influence it have not changed. They are – PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. The only exception heard is that of NSA Ajit Doval. he/she has completed his/her tenure and has now expressed reluctance to take further responsibility.

Need for improvement: There may be some improvements in foreign policy. Despite Modi’s presence on the world stage, his/her government has generally been seen as a Hindu right wing and majoritarian government. This is how the Western media describes the Modi government. Due to this, India’s relations with the Muslim world have been affected from time to time, despite India’s growing strategic closeness with the Gulf countries.

Nupur Sharma case: For example, in the year 2022, when BJP’s national spokesperson Nupur Sharma and the party’s Delhi media head Naveen Kumar Jindal made derogatory statements about Prophet Mohammad, the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) objected. The BJP leadership had to take immediate action on this. Nupur was suspended by the party, while Jindal was expelled. The Ministry of External Affairs described the OIC’s statement as baseless and narrow-minded. But, this episode had created diplomatic uneasiness.

Anti-India Campaign: Recently, the ‘India Out’ campaign was run in Maldives. Due to this, along with many other things, Mohammed Muizzu, who was inclined towards China, also got victory. he/she became the President of Maldives in November 2023. Interestingly, Muizzu was also among the foreign guests who attended Modi’s swearing-in ceremony.

Neighbours’ concerns: Earlier this year, some opposition political groups in Bangladesh also tried to launch an ‘India Out’ campaign. However, they did not have much success. Both Maldives and Bangladesh are Muslim majority countries. A section of their population is worried about the right-wing government in India.

Changes to the image: The Modi government includes political parties like TDP and JDU. In such a situation, the right-wing image of this government should change. These parties are considered secular and minority friendly. During the Lok Sabha elections, Bihar CM and JDU chief Nitish Kumar had told Muslim voters, ‘You should know about communal disputes beforehand. Graveyards were neglected. I got fencing done. Never forget this.’ TDP has made it clear that it will continue the policy of giving 4% reservation to Muslims under the OBC list. This is contrary to the stand of BJP, which is in favor of ending reservation for Muslims under the ‘Hindu’ OBC quota. It will not be right for BJP leaders to speak directly or indirectly against the Muslims of the country in the current political situation.

Work on the image: The Modi government has already begun to change its image. Addressing the NDA members for the first time on June 7, PM Modi said that his/her government believes in ‘Sarva Panth Sambhaav’. At the diplomatic level, the image of a friendly and accommodating government will help it make many friends, especially in the oil-producing Arab world. It will also weaken Pakistan’s relentless campaign against India.

Beijing flare-up: Modi had started sensing the effort for change even before his/her swearing-in, when he/she first spoke with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te via messages. But, he/she did not call Lai. China has not recognized Lai’s victory in the elections held last month. It claims rights over Taiwan. In such a situation, the conversation between Modi and Lai was enough to provoke it. It reminded India of the ‘One China Policy’ and said that it does not recognize Taiwan as a separate country.

Taiwan Card: The Modi government is expected to ask Taiwanese semiconductor companies to invest in China. China will strongly oppose any such attempt. The big question is whether India will also use the Taiwan card to resolve the border dispute with China. Whenever any country builds direct relations with Taiwan, China becomes nervous.

What will happen to PoK: An important question is whether the new government will move forward as per the wishes of the BJP and raise the issue of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir at the international level. Amit Shah has been saying continuously that PoK is ours and we will take it back. he/she did not clarify whether the step to be taken for this will be diplomatic or military action. The new NDA government will look like the old BJP government with proper checks and balances. This is good news for India on the world stage.