What Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook could not do during Trump’s previous tenure, will Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy be able to do it this time?

Author: Dan Cassino
Donald Trump has become President of America for the second time. his/her supporters believe that in his/her second term he/she will be successful in bringing radical changes in the American government, which he/she could not do in his/her first term. This time Trump is free from the compulsion to contest elections again. At the same time, he/she won’t have to deal with the same internal appointments that curbed some of his/her hardline views last time.

Big responsibility for Musk and Ramaswamy

Appointments made by the outgoing president include far-right Matt Gaetz as attorney general and former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard as intelligence chief. One announcement that has particularly excited MAGA Republicans is the appointment of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). However, despite the confidence of Trump supporters, it will not be easy for him/her to implement his/her ambitious agenda.

It will not be easy to pass the bill

However, a US President can do much on his/her own, such as action on immigration, tariffs or foreign policy. But most of the changes expected from DOGE, like domestic policy changes, have to go through Congress. Trump will take over with majorities in both the House and Senate, and will likely have two years before Democrats take control of one or both chambers, but that doesn’t guarantee passing the bill will be easy.

Major importance of President’s popularity

An American president’s ability to sway Congress to his/her demands depends largely on his/her popularity, and Trump is taking office with the same low approval ratings as he/she had in his/her first term. When Eisenhower was president in the 1950s, he/she was extremely popular. he/she was even more popular than many members of Congress in his/her districts, and he/she was able to use that popularity to crush opposition to his/her agenda.

Jimmy Carter, on the other hand, had become so unpopular by the end of his/her term that his/her legislative proposals were routinely ignored by Congress. Unable to get anything done in Congress, his/her work was limited to completing the tennis program for the White House courts. Trump can threaten members of Congress, but his/her low popularity means he/she can also ignore them.

Speaker has to have majority to help pass the bill

Their efforts to pass the bill will also be complicated by their razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, which operates by majority rule. If the Speaker commands a majority in the House, he/she can get any bill passed with little or no opportunity for debate or amendment.

Previous speakers have passed bills

Some speakers, like former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, proved adept at commanding a majority even with a narrow margin. But current Speaker Mike Johnson may face problems. Trump’s pressure on members of the party’s far-right wing, who have been Johnson’s biggest thorn in the side, could prove helpful. But to pass controversial bills through the House, Johnson will have to do a much better job than he/she has so far.

Need support from 7 Democrats

Proportionally, Trump would have a larger majority in the Senate, but would face the additional obstruction of the Senate filibuster. 60 votes are needed in the Senate to pass any major bill and Republicans will need the support of seven Democrats to reach that mark. Trump and his/her supporters, like Democrats, have already begun to argue that the filibuster needs to be weakened to pass their legislative agenda. While there may be a majority of Republicans willing to vote for that agenda, historically, there has never been a majority willing to substantially reduce the power of the filibuster.

What are senators worried about?

Senators like the power they have as the people to shape laws, and they are concerned about what the other party would do if they did not have to worry about the filibuster if they were in the majority. Unlike Trump, senators are likely to be concerned about what will happen five or ten years from now, when they are no longer in the majority party.

This fact may help Trump

Of course, Trump is helped in both the House and the Senate by the fact that Trump-suspicious Republicans like John McCain or Mitt Romney are no longer in office. Many conservatives who opposed Trump’s legislation during his/her first term, such as when McCain blocked passage of Trump’s effort to repeal Obamacare, are no longer in office.

Trump may have a smaller majority to work with in Congress, but those votes are far more loyal than in his/her first term. Many of the people Musk, Ramaswamy and Trump are bringing into the government believe that they can come and fix the system.

What happened in Trump’s first term?

In his/her first term, Trump included people like Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook in the government. Under the leadership of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, an effort was made to give a new look to the government on the lines of technology companies, which is still an example. Like DOGE, it started with big ambitions. These people played a big role in solving the opioid crisis, boosting the economy, and modernizing the government. Being talented and close to the President, it seemed like a sure bet.

However, in the end it made some recommendations, which were largely ignored by Congress, and it was disbanded. Unless Trump does something radically different this time, and is somehow able to overcome the major obstacles he/she faces in his/her second term, his/her legislative agenda and DOGE are likely to meet the same fate. Is.

(The author is Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University.)