This year the tension with China reduced but… read the account of India’s relations with neighboring countries in 2024

Author: Michael KugelmanIndia’s relations with neighboring countries remain quite challenging in 2024. The departure of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, increasing attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, deepening conflict in Myanmar, and China’s activities in Bhutan, all became a matter of concern for India. New governments in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives were seen moving closer to China.

India signed power agreements with Bangladesh and Nepal

However, peace maintained along the LoC between India and Pakistan and informal relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan also continued. The new China-inclined leaders do not want to join any one camp, but want to build balanced relations with both India and China. India also achieved some diplomatic milestones like power agreements with Bangladesh and Nepal and border agreements with China.

Yet India faces some form of challenge with most of its neighboring countries, many of which grapple with domestic instability, posing a national security threat.

India trying to improve relations with neighbors

India’s neighboring countries are trying to diversify their relations, making India no longer their first choice. Countries like Maldives and Bangladesh can increase their defense relations with China. Bangladesh is also moving towards building better relations with Pakistan. If India’s traditional neighbors are deepening their ties with its two regional rivals, it would be a strategic blow to India.

Tension due to increasing closeness between Bangladesh and Pakistan

This may also encourage anti-India sentiments. In some countries, the perception of India’s meddling and interference is long-standing, rooted in concerns about regional power imbalances. Public anger has also flared up against India’s domestic policies, such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). India will have to pay attention to such public sentiments and also give importance to the interests of its neighbourhood. But this will be a big diplomatic challenge.

Many countries depend on India’s economic aid

India’s influence gives it the advantage of mitigating some regional challenges. Some neighboring countries depend on Indian economic aid and cannot jeopardize it. They also recognize the strategic need to maintain solid relations with a regional power. However, when it comes to major strategic challenges like China and diplomatic challenges like Bangladesh, this impact remains limited.

How tension between India and China?

The border agreement between India and China has not reduced bilateral tensions, which are based on issues like Tibet, Pakistan, Chinese surveillance, naval show of force and LAC threats. But with its own regional problems, India cannot afford a further deterioration in relations with Beijing. Therefore, in 2025, if the hurdle of mistrust can be overcome, India can use the diplomatic opportunity created by the border agreement for greater economic cooperation with Beijing, focused on increasing Chinese FDI inflows (Which may also provide economic benefits to India amid low GDP growth rate last summer).

India can take advantage of relations with China

India can also take advantage of its limited agreements with China to reduce tensions with other neighbours. For example, he/she could relax rules that restrict Nepali energy imports linked to China. These rules promote the perception of India’s dominance in Nepal. Also, India can leverage its competition with China to strengthen relations with neighboring countries. With Beijing’s BRI slowing down in recent months, India has a golden opportunity to capitalize on infrastructure progress along its border. From power agreements with Bangladesh and Nepal to international railway plans with Bhutan.

India faces a major challenge in Bangladesh: diplomatic tensions, security concerns and negative public sentiment. India’s Bangladesh challenge could become even more complex next year if growing public discontent with an embattled interim government escalates political turmoil or if the conflict spills over from Myanmar, increasing the risk of instability in Bangladesh. For India, it will be important to keep communication channels open with the Bangladesh government to protect its interests in this volatile backdrop, which it may not like but will have to accept.

(Kugelman is director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center.)