This time, think carefully… Why does BJP need to strike a balance with introspection?

Opinion polls just before the election campaign had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would win more seats. However, it may fall short of its 400-plus target. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approval rating was 74 per cent. Exit polls conducted after the polling also gave the NDA 400 seats. Then how did the BJP get only 240 seats? How did the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA alliance manage to reach a slender majority with the support of Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu? The BJP must reflect on this and also balance it. Above all, it must learn how counterproductive it is to stifle dissent in the media.

The truth came out in secret voting

Media criticism is never pleasant to accept, but it does expose realities that the ‘Godi Media’ can hide. This fear fosters false praise and the illusion of universal support, while dissenters and critics remain silent, believing that discretion is the better part of valour. The more fear there is, the more misleading public opinion and popularity surveys are. The truth comes out only in secret ballots.

meaning of election results

Elections can make even the most seasoned politicians lose their sheen. Recently, Modi said in a TV interview: ‘I am sure that ‘Parmatma’ (God) has sent me for a purpose, he/she does not reveal his/her cards, he/she just keeps me working.’ These results show Modi as yet another politician, undoubtedly a very talented and successful person, but still mortal. Liberal jubilation notwithstanding, the conclusion is that the BJP is here for five years, and has a chance to win another five years in 2029. But we will not get simultaneous elections at the Centre and in the states anymore. We will not be able to remove references to secularism from the Constitution. We will not get a Hindu state. Gone are the days when the government could pass bills with minimal or no debate in Parliament.

Opposition’s strength doubled

The opposition has now doubled its strength. NDA allies who felt slighted earlier will be far more vocal this time, and Modi will have to step into uncharted territory and play a new role as negotiator. Both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu have left the BJP before. They are opportunists, not loyal friends. But there is no major reason for either of them to leave Modi in the near future.

Voting against whom?

Voters did not vote for communal polarisation or an ‘autocratic’ Modi. But what did they actually vote against? Some analysts attribute this to unemployment, agrarian distress, rising inequality (the so-called K-shaped recovery) and backlash against Hindutva. Such pan-India explanations fail scrutiny because the trend varies so widely across states.

Why did BJP lose Faizabad?

The BJP made a near clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, Assam and Odisha. This is why Naveen Patnaik’s 25-year-old rule in Odisha came to an end. Yet the BJP performed very poorly in UP and also suffered serious setbacks in Rajasthan, Haryana and West Bengal. The construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya was the biggest media event of the year, attracting record viewership. But it seems that millions of people did not see it as an election issue. The temple attracted tourists, but not voters. The BJP also lost the Faizabad seat, in which Ayodhya is located.

What happened to BJP in UP-Haryana-Rajasthan?

Can one claim that employment and K-shaped recovery were not problems in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal or Uttarakhand, but were serious problems in UP, Haryana and Rajasthan? The BJP’s gains and losses in different states were clearly due to very local issues, not any pan-India issues. In Uttar Pradesh, reporters claim that the SP and Congress managed to create a good caste equation.

Hopes rise for BJP in Tamil Nadu

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC managed to win despite corruption allegations and the Sandeshkhali controversy. In Andhra Pradesh, BJP allies Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan Kalyan won landslide victories, with the BJP playing a key role. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP failed to convert a strong effort into electoral success, but a ray of hope came its way in the form of a vote share of 11.3 per cent. In Haryana, the BJP-led government had already lost its majority due to defections, and its poor performance in the Lok Sabha was already predictable.