The winner is the king… There is no big challenge in Modi 3.0, know how this bubble of the opposition will burst

Nitish-Naidu very important in the new government

So, as of today, will any of them benefit from joining the India Block? Unlikely, and even if it does, the India Block will still be far from a majority. Even if it manages to get a few more seats from smaller parties, such an alliance will be very weak and easy to break. The BJP is adept at getting turncoats to join its side and garnering a majority. Look at its past record. In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, it fell short of a majority and a JDU-Congress government was formed. But the BJP ‘persuaded’ 17 MLAs of the ruling coalition to resign. Then it became the single largest party and came to power.

BJP far from majority, still not tensed

There was talk at the time that a lot of money could be involved. Something similar happened in Maharashtra after the 2019 assembly elections. Shiv Sena unexpectedly broke its alliance with BJP to form a government with Congress and NCP. But then BJP ‘persuaded’ most of the Shiv Sena MLAs to defect. It was said that those who defected benefited from alleged immunity from the charges they were facing. Will BJP losing a few seats change its political style? Despite the wishes of liberals, this is unlikely. After all, BJP’s team is working fully. Non-bailable laws like UAPA, which the opposition and society claim are being used as a weapon, can still be used.

BJP will move ahead with this plan

Don’t expect Nitish Kumar or Naidu to object to any such tactics. In fact, they may welcome the use of such methods against their local opponents. Both have their own agendas that are against the BJP. Some analysts believe this could lead to differences with the BJP. Nitish wants a national caste census to ensure reservation for the most backward castes, which the BJP opposes. In Andhra Pradesh, Naidu had earlier brought in a law giving 4 per cent quota in government jobs to backward Muslims. This goes against the belief system of the BJP, which opposes reservation based on Islam or any other religion. Will this cause a rift? Again, unlikely.

She has been seen in a changed style even before

The BJP is not as ideologically rigid and Hindutva-obsessed as some would like to portray it. Their stance can be opportunistic and flexible when needed. On an issue as close to the heart of Hindutva as banning cow slaughter, the BJP has taken a different stand in some states. The party refrained from such action when it came to power in Goa and some northeastern states, which have a significant Christian, beef-eating population. The reason given was that voters would be unhappy with a ban on beef supply, which is as non-ideological as any other reason. In a recent column, I wrote about how the Yogi government reined in cow vigilantes in UP and got buffalo meat exports back on track.

Minor changes will be seen in Modi 3.0

In terms of differences with allies, Nitish Kumar has already conducted a caste census in his/her state and ordered reservations for extremely backward castes supported by the local BJP. Naidu has joined hands with the BJP despite his/her differences and will be allowed to keep his/her 4 per cent Muslim quota. These issues pose no threat to the BJP-led coalition. So, expect the BJP-led NDA government to last the full five years, unless Modi himself feels that he/she is on strong enough ground to call a mid-term election and get an absolute majority on his/her own. Expect only minor changes in political style during this time despite the reliance on allies. Media pluralism may get a boost as the BJP now knows it was misled by some sycophants about its popularity. Expect occasional stirrings in communalism. However, politics will not change much during this time.