The situation is not like that of 2004… Will the exit polls prove right or wrong?

Rahul Verma: The exit poll figures released on 1st date are shocking. Everyone had said in their pre-poll survey that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is winning the elections comfortably. But nobody had imagined that their seats would increase so much. Especially during the elections, many such things came up that there is a close contest in many places! It was said that BJP may not even get 272 easily! In that sense, these are shocking figures.More seats than before: The question arises whether things will change when the actual results come on June 4? I believe no. The numbers given at the national level in most exit polls are almost the same. All have said that BJP can easily go above 320 and NDA above 370-375. On the other hand, Congress will increase its seats only marginally. Since there is a similarity in all the polls, it is very difficult for the results to be opposite to this. At the most 10-15 seats can change here and there, but now it should be assumed that BJP is coming to power with an absolute majority, and with more seats and votes than in 2019.

Profit and Loss : The second big thing we saw in the exit polls is that BJP is performing the same way in its core states as it did in 2014-2019. These states are Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Whatever little loss it may face, it may happen in Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Bihar. You can also add Assam and North East in this series. But these losses will be very small.

Beyond Imagination : BJP is going to get a big advantage in almost all the states on the coast of the Bay of Bengal. I think even BJP might not have imagined such a big advantage. In Bengal, it was believed that maybe two-four seats will increase and it can achieve a big victory there. The same is happening in Odisha-Telangana. In Andhra, BJP is winning a lot of seats in alliance with TDP. If the exit poll is correct, then this will be the first time when BJP will have at least one MP in every big state of the country.

The condition of India Exit polls show that Congress has retained its stronghold in Kerala and Punjab. It has made some gains in Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana and Rajasthan. But the main thing is that there has been no significant improvement in the performance of Congress. The biggest setback seems to be for Aam Aadmi Party, which may not have any seats, or may get one or two seats from Punjab. Bharat Rashtra Samiti is also facing a setback in Telangana. Biju Janata Dal is facing a setback in Odisha and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

Opposition’s strategy : This situation also happened because perhaps the strategy that the opposition was making during the elections did not succeed. The opposition wasted its time from September 2023 to February 2024 in talks about alliances, who is going out, who will contest how many seats? Ultimately, they are having to bear the brunt of it.

three things If what was shown in the exit polls on June 1 comes true on June 4, then it will be a big change for Indian politics. The first change started from 2014. In which BJP, which was earlier a party of only the North-West, reached the North-Eastern states in 2019, and in 2024 it expanded its scope. It also went to the states adjacent to the Bay of Bengal and the South. Secondly, when the BJP government led by Prime Minister Modi is coming back for the third consecutive term, it is increasing its vote and seat share every time.

Chanakya Lok Sabha Chunav Exit Poll 2024: Record is close to being broken… BJP is surprising in not one or two but many states, see the results of the exit poll
History will be made: This is a very unique thing. This has never happened in India before. Nehru ji had also won three terms but his/her party’s expansion was not increasing. The same thing happened with Indira ji as well. Thirdly, if these results are correct then difficulties will increase for the opposition in the coming times. This does not mean that there will not be a tough fight at the level of assembly elections and BJP will win easily. But the opposition’s dream of challenging BJP at the national level has now been postponed for five years. (The author is a political analyst and fellow at CPR)