The European Council on Foreign Relations has urged “harsh, swift” sanctions against China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is advocating “tough and swift” sanctions against China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. This approach is outlined in their policy brief, “Harder, faster, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario,” the Taipei Times reports.

The ECFR recommends that the EU should leverage its economic power to deter China from invading Taiwan, particularly by targeting China’s access to the EU market, said the ECFR policy published earlier this month. .

The pan-European think tank brief, published on September 19 and written by senior policy fellow Agathe Demaris, aimed to draw insights from Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and propose sanctions against China in cross-Strait conflict scenarios . taipei taiwan.

“China’s leader Xi Jinping has long affirmed that Taiwan’s “reunification” with the Chinese mainland is “inevitable.” One of the worst scenarios for such “reunification” is a Chinese maritime blockade of the island, followed by a full-scale military invasion of the area, Demaris wrote.

“To prepare for this far from certain scenario, the EU and its member states need to start considering their economic governance options against China, including financial sanctions and trade measures. In doing so, they can draw valuable lessons from the comprehensive sanctions that have been imposed on Russia since 2014,” she said.

According to Taipei Taiwan, the EU’s threat of sanctions against China could be “game-changing” because Beijing, like Moscow, would find it impossible for the EU’s 27 member states to unify on sanctions, Demarais wrote.

Although China could threaten to retaliate against EU sanctions, “explicit threats from the bloc would signal to Beijing that the costs of aggression are even higher than those the Chinese leadership already expects,” and Russia’s The experience will prompt China “to think twice about ignoring Europe’s warnings,” she said.

However, traditional financial sanctions may not work because “China has spent years protecting itself from financial sanctions through ‘de-dollarization’, ‘de-swifting’ and the development of digital currencies,” he/she said.

Furthermore, he/she stressed that, while China’s financial independence would soon make economic sanctions ineffective, trade sanctions targeting its export-based economy could still be an effective leverage point for Europe.

By 2028, “threats of measures targeting China’s access to Western financial channels or currencies will be unlikely to change Beijing’s calculations around Taiwan, as Chinese leaders are making rapid progress toward financial self-reliance,” Demaris said.

“This means that Europe’s strongest advantage probably lies in trade measures targeting China’s access to the EU market,” she said.

China’s economic growth depends on exports of manufactured goods, he/she said, and this dependence “could become its weakness”.

Highlighting China’s dependence for employment on foreign demand, Demarais affirmed, “Exports account for about 20 percent of China’s GDP, about 40 percent of which goes to the G7-EU economies,” while China’s 100 million jobs depend on foreign demand he/she said, including at least 45 million from G7-EU economies.

In their report, they also suggested that the EU and its G7 partners should ban these items, which account for 13 percent and 9 percent of total Chinese exports, respectively. While a short-term supply decline may be manageable for Western consumers, it will be extremely painful for China.

he/she said the EU and its G7 partners should ban imports of non-critical, finished consumer goods, especially electronics and low-end goods, which account for 13 percent and 9 percent of total Chinese exports, respectively.

“The decline in supply of these commodities will be manageable for Western consumers, at least for the time being. But for China, joint G7-EU measures to curb shipments of these products would be extremely painful,” Demaris said.

“This means that if containment fails and EU policymakers choose to impose sanctions on China, they should take stronger action,” he/she said.

Gradually increasing sanctions would risk “supporting Chinese efforts to build long-term immunity to financial sanctions”, and would be unlikely to prevent the EU and its allies from causing a balance of payments crisis in China through a centralized economic system. Can. Bank stores,” she said.

The ECFR urged Beijing to discuss potential Taiwan-related triggers for sanctions and consider the consequences of a significant reduction in trade relations with China.

“European policymakers need to start discussing potential Taiwan-related triggers for sanctions on Beijing and explore the consequences of a sharp reduction in trade relations with China,” he/she said.

“The EU needs to think about a financial compensation package for those EU firms most affected by sanctions and seriously enhance its capacity to deal with sanctions disinformation,” he/she said.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is an award-winning international think-tank focused on European foreign and security policies. They conduct independent research and provide a platform for leaders, activists and influential people to share ideas and shape Europe’s global role.