Second shock after Haryana, how will national politics be affected after Congress’s defeat in Maharashtra?

Rahul Verma, New Delhi: The results of Maharashtra Assembly elections surprised big political pundits. While the Bharatiya Janata Party alone performed the best ever, the NCP of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar were also showered with public blessings. On the contrary, Mahavikas Aghadi, which was hopeful of victory, got a windfall after this result. No big leader is ready to speak openly on this defeat. Congress has suffered the biggest blow. It has got only 17 seats out of 288, which is less than Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (21). Congress, which got more seats in the Lok Sabha than the parties of the Indian Alliance, has suffered its second setback after Haryana within 7 months. In such a situation, Congress’s upper hand in central politics has also weakened. Before the elections, many political analysts had expressed the fear of tough regional contests. It was being said that independent and rebel candidates would decide which alliance would get the upper hand. Many people also expected that after the results, many parties and MLAs would change sides to get the post of Chief Minister, but the results remained one-sided.

Mahayuti, an alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), defeated India i.e. Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance of Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. BJP has also left behind its best performance till date in 2014. At the same time, Congress had to be content with its lowest number of seats in the history of the state.

Change in the pattern that has been going on since 1990
These results seem to be changing the stable pattern that had been going on since the 1990s, where there was a direct contest between the BJP and Shiv Sena on one side and the Congress and NCP on the other. After the victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s expansionist attitude came to the fore. The party no longer wanted to remain second behind Shiv Sena in state politics. his/her move to contest alone in the 2014 assembly elections proved correct. The party emerged as the largest party with 122 seats, although falling short of a majority. The allies eventually came together to form the government and fought the 2019 assembly elections in alliance. However, due to the tussle over the post of Chief Minister, Shiv Sena joined Congress-NCP. Then there was the split between Shiv Sena and NCP which completely disintegrated the politics of the state, but the results of this election have decided in which direction the politics of Maharashtra will go.

How did Mahayuti get the big victory?
The question arises that what is the reason for this big victory of Mahayuti? Generally it can be assumed that women voters supported the alliance because of Ladki Behen Yojana, but such one-sided election results cannot come due to just one reason. It seems that Mahayuti did everything right and MVA did everything that could go wrong. Seat sharing was difficult for MVA allies. It could not be decided who would become the Chief Minister if the alliance won. Things like irregularities in ticket distribution, lack of coordination with grassroots level workers and difficulty in competing with Mahayuti in terms of money power also came to light.

Axis-My India had predicted a big victory for Mahayuti in its exit poll. Axis-My India had also indicated in its exit poll that Mahayuti was getting considerable support from women voters. It is important to note that the alliance had an edge across various socio-economic classes. The BJP-led alliance was ahead in all communities except Muslims (and Dalits). The alliance got marginal gains in the Scheduled Tribes, Maratha and Kunbi communities. At the same time, its lead among other OBCs and general castes was double that of MVA.

How will the country’s politics be affected? Understand from 5 things
What impact will these results have on state and national politics? First, the results indicate marginalization of political parties outside these two alliances. This trend was visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well as the assembly elections held thereafter. In the 2019 Maharashtra elections, independents and small parties had won a quarter of the total votes polled and 29 seats. In this election their vote share and seat share has almost halved. It is possible that many such political parties may now try to join either of these two alliances.

SecondIt remains to be seen which Shiv Sena will take forward the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. But his/her family’s political influence has weakened. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is already marginalized and Uddhav’s faction had a poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections also. If Uddhav’s party faces a similar defeat in the BMC elections, it will be difficult for him/her to retain the MLAs who won on the party ticket.

thirdIt seems that Congress is back to the same place after its excellent performance in the Lok Sabha elections. This is not only in state politics but also at the national level. It had a minor role in the India Alliance’s victory in Jharkhand and in Jammu and Kashmir a few months ago. However, its failure to win in Haryana and Maharashtra after challenging the BJP in these states points to a deeper structural problem.

fourthWhat do the results of these elections mean for the future of Sharad Pawar’s family? Given that Ajit Pawar’s party has performed well, there are many possibilities. Will there be reconciliation within the family?

fifthThe BJP may have got some relief after Maharashtra and Haryana, but it also needs to seriously consider what went wrong in Jharkhand, where the party was hoping to return to power.