Ram Mandir, Article 370….yet this is the situation! 7 reasons that shocked BJP

New Delhi : Counting of votes for the Lok Sabha elections is underway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan of ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ has been shattered. It is a blessing that after 20 years, BJP and NDA were able to repeat their ‘feel good’ and ‘India Shining’ moment. In the trends, NDA seems to be getting majority but BJP seems to be at least 30-35 votes behind the magic figure of 272. This is when BJP’s agenda of building a grand Ram temple in Ayodhya has been completed. When BJP’s promise of ending the special status given to Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 has been fulfilled. If these trends turn into results, then Prime Minister Narendra Modi can do the miracle of coming to power for the third consecutive time after the first PM Jawaharlal Nehru, but this is not possible without the support of the alliance. If they form the government for the third time under the alliance after BJP lost the absolute majority, they will have to be at the mercy of JDU chief Nitish Kumar and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu. Nitish, who has earned a bad name of ‘Paltu Chacha’ due to frequent alliance changes, is insisting that he/she will not leave NDA but discussions have started about him/her. There are also discussions about Nitish Kumar being offered the post of Deputy PM by India Alliance. Efforts are also being made to woo Naidu. So what were the reasons that went against BJP, let’s understand.Overconfidence!
Overconfidence can be said to be a big reason for the setback to BJP. It seems that the slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ backfired. Due to the atmosphere created after the construction of Ram temple and no sign of public resentment against the Modi government, BJP became a victim of overconfidence. Just like in 2004, during the time of then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it suffered a setback due to overconfidence in the form of ‘feel good’ and ‘India shining’. Despite BJP’s excellent performance in states like Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and even opening its account for the first time in Kerala, its seats seem to be decreasing from last time. The reason is that it suffered losses in states like UP, Rajasthan, Haryana and West Bengal. Even in the Prime Minister’s home state Haryana, this time BJP could not repeat the magic of ‘perfect 26’, whereas in 2014 and 2019 the party had captured all the seats there. In the noise of ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’, it is possible that like BJP, some of its supporters also fell prey to the illusion that they are going to win and did not bother to reach the polling booth. BJP will have to review this. BJP was confident of a landslide victory this time. So confident that this time it did not announce any scheme that would benefit any section before the elections. Last time PM Kisan Samman Nidhi was announced but this time the Modi government did not announce any such scheme. On one hand, the opposition alliance made populist promises, on the other hand BJP relied on ‘Modi ki Guarantee’, which perhaps did not work as much this time. There was also a 10-year anti-incumbency trend on the ground, which BJP failed to sense.

Ram Mandir issue did not help
This was the first Lok Sabha election after the construction of the grand Ram temple in Ayodhya, UP. After centuries of waiting, the dream of temple construction was fulfilled. The Prana Pratishtha ceremony was held with great pomp on January 22. The kind of atmosphere that prevailed in the country including UP at that time, BJP must have expected benefits from it. This was the reason why the party kept trying to take credit for the temple construction even during the elections. Despite this, BJP suffered heavy losses in UP. Looking at the trends, it seems that the construction of Ram temple did not benefit BJP. Even from the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat under which Ayodhya falls, the BJP candidate lost. It seems that a good portion of those who voted for BJP last time were happy with the construction of Ram temple, but were more angry with the party due to other reasons.

The opposition narrative of ‘reservation, constitution in danger’ worked
The opposition raised the fear of ‘reservation ending’, ‘constitution ending’. India Alliance repeatedly said that if BJP comes to power again, dictatorship will come. ‘Reservation ending’ will happen. ‘Constitution ending’ will happen. BJP wants more than 400 seats so that it can change the constitution. It can end reservation. Whether it is Rahul Gandhi or Akhilesh Yadav or any other big leader of the alliance, they kept saying this from their respective platforms. BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried their best to break this narrative of the opposition but it seems that they were not completely successful in it.

BJP’s Pasmanda card fails
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been trying every possible way to attract Muslims towards BJP since his/her second term. Muslims have benefited the most from the welfare schemes run by the Modi government, which was also promoted by the BJP leaders themselves. A special campaign was launched to woo the Pasmanda Muslims, but this card of BJP has been a flop, especially in UP. In 2019, even after the SP-BSP joined hands, the NDA managed to win 64 seats in UP. This time SP and Congress were together. The Grand Old Party was considered very weak in the state, despite this, the SP-Congress alliance has performed tremendously this time. The reason behind this performance is the one-sided voting of Muslim votes in favor of the India Alliance.

UP’s ‘two boys’ pair’ is a superhit this time
This time in UP, the ‘two boys pair’ (Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav) has been a superhit. In the 2017 assembly elections, SP and Congress came together but then the pair of these two boys from UP flopped. This time it did not happen. This pair campaigned together in UP. Claims were made like giving 1 lakh rupees annually to women and eradicating poverty ‘in no time’. The public was shown fears like ‘the Constitution being over’, ‘reservation being in danger’ and ‘dictatorship’ coming. Slogans like ‘Remove BJP, save the country’ were given, which had an impact on the voters and BJP’s seats seem to be decreasing from last time.

Agneepath scheme with Agniveer, youth angry due to repeated paper leaks!
A major reason for the decline in BJP’s performance is its below-expected performance in UP, the biggest state in political terms. Rahul Gandhi made the Agneepath scheme of Agniveer a big issue. he/she promised that he/she will end this scheme as soon as he/she comes to power. In UP, Rahul and Akhilesh made repeated paper leaks and unemployment a big issue and tried their best to cash in on the anger of the youth. Many papers were leaked in UP in the election year itself. The UP Police Recruitment Exam paper was leaked, the UPSC RO ARO Exam paper was leaked, the UP Board papers of some subjects were also leaked. There was anger among the youth about this and the opposition aggressively surrounded the BJP on this issue. This can also be a big reason behind BJP’s disappointing performance in UP.

Irregularity in ticket distribution, cannot win on the basis of Modi’s name alone!
There is a big message hidden in the election results and trends for BJP that elections cannot be won only on the name of Narendra Modi. The shine of ‘Brand Modi’ has faded. ‘Modi Magic’ has faded. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself has won the election from his/her seat Varanasi by a much lesser margin than last time. The public’s resentment against the candidates at the local level has probably cost BJP heavily. To reduce the public’s resentment against the MPs at the local level, BJP did cut the tickets of many sitting MPs but also gave tickets to a large number of turncoats. Every fourth candidate of BJP was a turncoat. Perhaps this cost the party dearly.