Pure politics: The season of challenges has just begun for the Modi government

Narendra Nath: The general elections are over and the NDA led by Narendra Modi has taken charge of its third term. Usually, there is a lull in politics for a few months immediately after the general elections. But this time the situation is different. The kind of results that came on June 4 and the return of coalition politics in the country after a decade indicate that the story is yet to end in 2024. The next few days can see many upheavals and big activities from governance to politics. That is, in a few days, some such incidents are going to come to the fore, which can have a profound impact on the politics of the country.

What is the first challenge for the Modi government?
The biggest challenge before the new government led by Narendra Modi is to show that his/her credibility has not diminished even after coming into the coalition. The first big proof of this will be seen immediately on July 23 when the first full-time budget of the third term will be presented. Before the budget is presented, ally Chandrababu Naidu is pressing for a big financial package for Andhra Pradesh. If the central government gives him/her a package, then the pressure from other states will also increase. Also, whether the government continues its path towards reform in the budget or shows the temptation of adopting a populist agenda, this will also decide the direction of the country.

Eyes on big decisions
Before the elections, Narendra Modi had repeatedly said that the third term would be of big decisions. In such a situation, the path to a big decision goes through the budget or the Parliament session. In the budget session, not only the budget but also the other bills will be kept in mind which will be presented by the central government. Remember how, immediately after assuming the second term in 2019, the Modi government had passed the Citizenship Amendment Act in the first Parliament session in addition to removing Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. But is the government ready for big decisions now? Are the government and BJP still ready to take risks for this? This will also be seen in the next few days, especially in the budget session of Parliament. At the same time, in the first session of Parliament itself, the opposition parties have clearly indicated that now they are not going to bow down and are fully prepared for a confrontation with the government. In such a situation, how the government deals with the aggressive opposition will also determine the future direction.

Apart from this, the government has to take a decision on the census in the next few days. Census data was not released in 2021. The central government has indicated that its notification may be issued in October. But there is already pressure from the opposition to add caste census in it. On top of that, JDU and TDP are such parties as allies who have already been in favor of caste census. Nitish Kumar has already got caste census done at the state level in Bihar. In such a situation, it will not be that easy to ignore the opposition pressure.

Apart from governance, the entire script is ready for a fierce battle on the political pitch in 2024. The assembly elections to be held in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir in the next few days have now become very important. Experts believe that this time these elections will be a make or break moment for the central government and the reputation of the BJP. If the BJP performs better in these elections, then it will not only regain its lost shine, but will also attract parties that are currently trying to show a neutral stance. The proximity of leaders of other parties to the BJP can be seen again, which will strengthen it. Along with this, its control over the states will remain, which will also have the support of political mandate for big decisions. But if the opposite happens, then the road ahead will become very difficult for the BJP and the central government. From here, the real form of pressure from allies can also come to the fore.

Allies try to dominate
Not only this, adverse results can affect the internal structure of BJP and factionalism can come to the fore. This is the reason why BJP is taking this election on a do or die basis. To deal with the strong opposition in Maharashtra, the NDA government led by Eknath Shinde launched Madhya Pradesh’s Ladli Yojana in which the government gives assistance of Rs 1500 to women every month. It was implemented with immediate effect in a hurry. Similarly, BJP is putting its all in Haryana and Jharkhand too. But the party knows that this election is not easy. In fact, in the election results that came on June 4, these were the states where the opposition performed better than expected. Also, there is no major election in 2025. Elections will be held only in Bihar where BJP is already in government with JDU. In such a situation, JDU will try to dominate BJP there too at all costs.