Punjab’s political path has always been different, no one’s wind blows here

Ashutosh Kumar

There are different options for elections in every state of the country and there are different political parties. In such a situation, it can be said that every state is a small democracy. For this reason, states are the best unit of analysis to understand elections. Punjab has a lot in common with other states, yet there is something that makes it different.

distance from congress
The first reason is that even in the initial years after independence, there was no ‘Congress System’ in Punjab. Compared to other states, Congress here had to face tough competition from Akali Dal and Jan Sangh. This is the reason why after the state reorganization in 1966, formation of coalition governments was common in Punjab.

political power
In most states, the middle and lower castes have emerged as political forces in the last three and a half decades. However, Punjab is different in this matter. One third of the population here is Scheduled Caste. Despite this, political power remains in the hands of Jat Sikh farmers who own land. This is evident from the failure of Congress in the last assembly elections. To avoid the anti-incumbency wave, Congress had made a Dalit Chief Minister at the last moment, but it did not get any benefit.

weak BJP
In Punjab, BJP entered into alliance with Akali Dal from 1997 to 2021. Despite this, the party has not yet been able to register its strong presence in terms of seats or vote percentage. This thing separates Punjab from other states where BJP used to be weak earlier. There it formed an alliance with powerful regional parties and then became a winning party itself. Odisha, Bengal, Bihar, Karnataka are examples of this.

local issues dominate
Punjab never came under the influence of the wave going on in the country, neither during the time of Congress nor now during the time of BJP. BJP is trying to contest elections on national issues like Article 370, Uniform Civil Code, country’s security and India’s growing stature on the world stage, but it does not seem to have much impact in Punjab. Here also local issues have been decisive in the Lok Sabha elections.

AAP’s strength
Punjab is the only state where Aam Aadmi Party has so far been successful in winning any Lok Sabha seat. In the 2014 general elections, AAP was a two-year-old party and had won four of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. It became the main opposition party in the 2017 assembly elections. Then in 2022 captured 92 out of 117 assembly seats. AAP is also in the fray in this general election.

distance from change
Ideological change seems to be taking place in the entire country. Despite having a large Hindu population, Punjab is also untouched by this. Even after the Amritpal Singh episode and Simranjit Mann’s victory in the Sangrur Lok Sabha by-election, there are no signs of re-emergence of fundamentalist ideas in the Sikh community.

decline of akali dal
Another thing that differentiates Punjab from other states is that even regional parties are not performing well here. On the other hand, in many states, parties with region-specific political, cultural and economic agendas are challenging the big parties. Akali Dal is more than a hundred years old party in Punjab. It had set the political agenda of the state since the days of the British Raj. But, now it is on a continuous decline. Its situation is not because of BJP, but because of its strategic mistakes and organizational issues.

farmers movement
Punjab is influenced by the powerful farming community. In such a situation, the serious crisis faced by the agriculture sector in the state after the Green Revolution is a matter of great concern. Farmers have been standing at the Indus border for more than three months. This reminds us of the farmers’ movement of 2020, which took place in protest against the three agricultural laws.

modi magic
Now the big question is whether Punjab will remain different from the rest in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. After a long gap of 27 years, BJP is contesting the elections alone in the state. It will be interesting to see the party’s performance in those seats where it is contesting for the first time and where there is a sizeable population of Hindus. These are especially the seats of Ludhiana and Jalandhar. Similarly, there are also those Lok Sabha constituencies where the party has won in the past in alliance with the Akali Dal. For example, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur have been won five times, while Amritsar has been won thrice. It will also be interesting to see whether the magic of PM Narendra Modi finally works in Punjab or not.

(The author is Professor of Political Science, Punjab University)