Opinion: Zelensky understood worldliness after two and a half years of war! Understand the compulsion of expectations from India

Author: Rudronil Ghosh
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview to Times of India (TOI) explained in detail his/her new idea and strategy to end the war with Russia. Reading his/her interview carefully, it becomes clear how Zelensky’s thinking toward ending the war is evolving. First, he/she seems to accept that even if he/she were to defend against Russian attacks, the United States and our Western partners, but the war cannot be ended without the support of the countries of the Global South. he/she hinted at this during the interview when he/she acknowledged that sanctions against Russia are not working fully. In other words, Russia has been able to avoid the impact of sanctions through bilateral trade with some countries.

The problem in Zelensky’s view is that these countries talk about the need to end the war, but are also expanding trade with Russia for their own economic self-interest. They cite the need for dialogue to avoid taking a position on war. Therefore, Zelensky’s strategy now appears to be twofold. Their strategy is to label neutral countries as indirect supporters of Russia and put pressure on those who talk about bringing peace to take steps in this direction.

In the process, Zelensky is setting the parameters for negotiations to end the war. Such negotiations should emanate from Ukraine’s Peace Formula and the Joint Communiqué of the Peace Summit, or they should be seriously pursued. Negotiations may also take place on specific points of the formula or communique, such as the return of forcibly deported Ukrainian children. In this way, Zelensky feels that Ukraine can control the negotiations in its favor.

Second, Zelensky is well aware that engaging in peace talks now is not beneficial for Ukraine. Despite the Kursk operation, Ukraine has not been able to completely stop the Russian attack. The reason for this is the delay in Ukraine getting military supplies from America whereas Russia already has a wealth of weapons. Russia can afford to let corpses pile up on the battlefield, but not Ukraine. So as Zelensky said in the interview, Ukraine has to save its people by giving up its land. On the other hand, Putin, given his/her position in the Russian political system, could give up the people of Ukraine in exchange for land. If Ukraine gives its land to Russia, a possible way to end the war could be prepared.

To avoid this loss, Zelensky now has a ‘victory plan’. he/she wants the West to give Ukraine a package of long-range weapons along with NATO membership. Zelensky feels that both these steps will force Russia to rethink its military strategy. This would help Ukraine counterbalance Russia as there is still no consensus even among European countries on what level of support they should set for Kiev. Not only this, with the change of government in any country, the current level of support can also change completely.

Zelensky believes that if Ukraine becomes a part of the European security structure through NATO membership, it will have greater bargaining power at the decisive negotiating table with Russia. Zelensky also fears that if the war continues like this, Russia may intensify it at any time in the future. European and NATO security guarantees are the best way to thwart such nefarious designs of Russia in future.

And finally, Zelensky has come to appreciate India’s strategic autonomy. he/she remains disappointed about India-Russia defense and oil trade, yet he/she feels New Delhi may have more scope than China to understand Ukraine’s point of view at this time. There have been very few days of friendship between Beijing and Moscow. On the other hand, New Delhi can seek coordination between BRICS and Quad. This is why he/she is calling for the return of Ukrainian children to India.

Modi may ask Putin to search for Ukrainian children and return them to Kiev. However, Putin may argue that these children were brought from Ukraine to Russia to save them from the war. This will certainly embarrass the International Criminal Court, but Ukraine will get its children back. On the other hand, Modi will get a diplomatic victory and Putin will get some credit.

This in turn will also be a litmus test for India as to how far it is willing to go to facilitate talks. And if progress is made on returning the children, other negotiations could take place to end the war.

Zelensky knows he/she has to come to the negotiating table to end the war. They know that military power alone will not stop Russia on the battlefield. They need a hybrid strategy that combines deterring Russia on the front lines and negotiating with countries in the Global South so that they are in a stronger negotiating position. Since the US elections are very close, they are hedging their bets. Zelensky is showing a willingness to be flexible.