Opinion: Will relations be back to normal before 2020? Know why we cannot trust China

Tanvi Madan: In 2017, an agreement with China was announced to end the Doklam crisis. Similarly, a few days ago an agreement was also announced regarding the dispute on LAC. There were reactions to the 2017 announcement as well and even after the recent announcement, reactions are coming in most parts of the country. However, it is surprising to compare the two. Indian officials have been more cautious in describing the agreement. An important step forward is the acceptance of public comment in this matter. As such, this agreement is being described as a possible outcome of Indian diplomatic and deterrent capability and global situation. It is also being said that Beijing cannot be trusted. This is an indication that the way India and China move forward in the future, it will not be the same as before 2020. China has repeatedly called for getting relations back on track, but its actions have damaged that path. As indicated by Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Misri said the agreement opens up the possibility of a new path, but whether and how it is built and what its goal is depends on China fulfilling its old and new commitments. Despite this, China has already transformed India. It is unlikely that, without significant changes in his/her intentions or actions, it will normally be possible to return to the situation as before.

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We still don’t know exactly what prompted the actions Beijing took in 2020, or why it made the deal at this time. We know that he/she has tried to stabilize the deteriorating relations with Australia and the US over the last few years. Analysts have speculated that they and the current efforts by India stem from the strategic and economic pressures faced by China. This has potential domestic consequences for governance. At the same time there is uncertainty about the outlook of the next US President.
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Its interactions with India, Australia and several European countries also reflect its old strategy of creating rifts between partners in balancing alliances. India did not take as much time as it took China to reach this point. It has strengthened its deterrence capabilities and partnerships. Even though there is still a lot to be done. Furthermore, the border situation has changed with the strengthening of troops, weapons and infrastructure. In part, this is because there is little confidence that the agreements will restrain China. China has come to be considered as a challenge, if not a threat to India.
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India has viewed China as an obstacle to achieving Indian objectives. That relationship was supposed to be a source of stability, but has now become a source of insecurity. Economic ties were considered an opportunity, but are now considered a weakness. From helping India find its rightful place on the global platform, today China is considered India’s main rival in the Global South and even in BRICS. By helping to enhance India’s strategic autonomy – by becoming a partnership option – Beijing is seen today as a significant deterrent to India.
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At the same time, India’s partnerships with like-minded countries have broadened and deepened unprecedentedly in the last decade since the 2014 border standoff, and especially since 2020. For example, shared concerns about China’s assertiveness have not only advanced India-US cooperation in defence, technology, economic security and even multilateral areas, but also encouraged them to manage differences. It is surprising that even during sensitive talks with Beijing, Delhi has left no stone unturned in taking several steps with its partners – as it could have done before 2020.

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These include PM Modi’s reply to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and inauguration of Taiwan’s third representative office in India; This includes India welcoming the US Congressional delegation to meet the Dalai Lama. Also attending the Quad summit and signing strict language on China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, hosting the Malabar and Tarang Shakti exercises; and Australia’s participation in maritime reconnaissance cooperation activity with its Quad partners during Exercise Kakadu. Perhaps India has gone from seeing deepening ties with the US and other partners as an obstacle to negotiations with China to believing that they are an enabler, bringing Beijing to the table.

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India’s partners, such as the US, will not be surprised by the recent agreement. It has been clear for months that talks between Delhi and Beijing were serious. Washington will consider this a notable step to reduce tensions, but given Beijing’s track record, it will also wait to see if it actually works. The US itself has worked to ground its relations with China, but like Delhi, it has seen no change in the fundamentals. There is an understanding of the special pressures India faces as its continental neighbor to China.

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However, the US and other partners will be wondering how the new agreements might affect India’s willingness to cooperate with them. This is no different from India’s concerns about the implications of the US or Australia’s interactions with China. And just as they should keep India informed about those negotiations, India should do the same to keep its balancing partners on board.

(Tanvi Madan is the author of ‘Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations During the Cold War’.)