Sunday, February 16th, 2025

Opinion: The world is changing, if India seizes the opportunity then it will set the rules, else it will remain a follower

Author: Vijay Gokhale
Looking at the state of international affairs, the West sees our world as currently in a state of turmoil. Russia is threatening their peace. China and emerging economies are threatening their businesses and livelihoods. The Global South is threatening to overturn their values. This is understandable because the West built the world order after the end of World War II, and they continue to seek dominance through force and the power of negotiation. But this is not the world as seen through the prism of others. Our world is undergoing change. More precisely, two changes are important.

New center of gravity
The millennium transition is beginning with the steady shift of the world’s economic centre of gravity from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. This first transition offers new opportunities as India is located at the centre of the Indo-Pacific. The strategic direction of this major shift was set in Prime Minister Modi’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June 2018.

The second change is marked by the fragmentation of the global order built by the US after 1945, a century ago. This change can pose challenges for us as the disintegration of the global system leads to a more irregular world for India. The inability of the United Nations Security Council to keep the world peaceful, the reluctance of multilateral institutions to manage monetary, financial and trade policy with the concerns of the Global South; and no framework for negotiating international governance for outer space, underwater and cyberspace domains make the coming decade even more unpredictable.

The West continues to refuse to accept the right of non-Western countries to shape their own democratic systems. The West’s insistence on imposing a one-size-fits-all rule for every model encourages many in the Global South to be attracted to ‘soft dictatorships’.

Many poles are being prepared
There may be more than one view on whether such fragmentation allows for a more multipolar world. It is already true that issues such as climate change, water and food security, or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction are no longer exclusively reserved for the major powers. The perspectives of middle powers and groups of smaller countries matter. The world today is more multilateral than ever since 1945. But, yet it remains a multilateral world with strong bipolar characteristics. India has had to navigate these years with significant deficiencies in its economic and national security capabilities.

The way to India
The policy of multi-alignment is the bedrock of Indian diplomacy. It is based on a realistic understanding of the world we live in. It has allowed successive governments to build partnerships without being bogged down in commitments. And it has leveraged India’s geographic, demographic and economic strengths to serve domestic goals. The next decade will test India’s ability and resolve to navigate our uncertain world as political uncertainties in both major powers could accelerate the fragmentation of the current global order.

indefinite time
The elections in the US this November are perhaps the most important in the last 50 years as they could determine the direction of US involvement in international politics. The political uncertainties in China are less obvious, but no less important. The current leader has abolished all rules on age and term limits, making the transfer of power to the next generation both uncertain and unpredictable. In the past this did not matter so much because the Chinese economy was isolated from the rest of the world. Now it is the world’s second largest economy and underpins a quarter of global supply chains, and any political disruption would have global ramifications, including for India. Moreover, the rivalry between China and the US could also force the rest of the world to choose between the two.

True Multi-Alignment
It is important to reduce the influence of bipolarity in the international system, else it may force us to make choices that can create long-term dependency. Our position as a swing state can best be leveraged through multi-alignment to maximize the security and economic benefits from this situation. But, genuine multi-alignment needs to be backed by solid economic growth. Aatmanirbharta should not become an excuse for vested interests to close the doors to the outside world, but an opportunity for Indian companies to compete with the best in their class.

Preparing legal and technical talent to participate in multilateral negotiations for standard-setting in new technologies should also be on the Indian government’s list of priorities. Unless this talent pool is systematically identified and trained, India will remain a mere follower rather than a rule-maker. For this to happen, the mindset that disdains external expertise must change. Qualified legal and technical experts from the private sector must be integrated into our machinery for international negotiations. A transformative world is favourable to India on balance if we turn off our self-reflexivity, work on the opportunities and prepare ourselves to deal with the pitfalls.

(The author is a former foreign secretary.)

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