Opinion: Russia knows that China is a threat to it too, that is why it is making cautious moves, understand India’s strategy too

Author: Indrani Bagchi
If one wants to understand what differentiates a multipolar world from a bipolar one, then India-Russia relations are an example of this. A Twitter expert had given this example. Modi’s task of coming to Russia for a bilateral summit with Putin after five years was never going to be easy. It became especially difficult when the scenes of Modi-Putin ‘hugging’ became famous when the pictures of the inhuman missile attack by Russia on a children’s hospital in Ukraine were in the news. Sick and injured children were killed in the attack. Children are the worst hit by the horrors of war and here their hospital was attacked. Modi condemned Russia’s attack on the Ukrainian hospital before a private conversation with Putin. he/she said, ‘When innocent children are killed, when we see innocent children dying, it is heartbreaking.’

Modi agreed to the summit within a week, when the NATO summit in Washington dominated the front pages of newspapers. This was a big diplomatic bonus for Putin. Putin managed to send the message that Russia is not ‘isolated’, and that his/her diplomatic foray into the ‘non-Western’ world has been largely successful. Pocketing the diplomatic gift given by Modi, Putin said, “We have a particularly privileged strategic partnership.” Modi reiterated his/her now famous stance that this is not an ‘era’ of war. Calling for dialogue to end the war, Modi said, “Solutions will not be found on the battlefield. Solutions and peace talks do not succeed amid bombs, guns and bullets.” This could have been a dig at Putin’s indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine. Conversely, it could also have been a silent reminder to NATO that simply giving arms to Ukraine will not really get the job done.

India did attend the recent peace summit in Switzerland at the level of senior officials but refrained from signing the communiqué. And rightly so. In Switzerland, India made a clear call for Russia to come to the negotiating table. That may well happen, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House in November. India thought it would negotiate with Putin on its terms. Modi also met Ukrainian President Zelensky and renewed ties with the G7 a few days after being sworn in for the third time. So, in terms of ticking the boxes, India has made no missteps in this balancing act.

India’s ‘Ukraine dilemma’ begins in 2022. It can be best understood as 3 F’s and a C. These are Fuel, Food, Fertilizer and China. India has overcome the energy crisis, with Russia topping the charts as an oil supplier.

But China has emerged as a challenge to India. Interestingly, it has emerged as a challenge to Russia as well. It was not as if Beijing was celebrating when Putin hugged Kim Jong Un last month. So, Russia is making its move, and India is a big part of its game. India last month snubbed the China-dominated SCO. It wants to prevent BRICS from becoming a Chinese colony, and therefore wants to help Russia at the next summit in October. At a strategic level, Russia is fully aware that India is its best bet against China.

India’s current dilemma on Ukraine is this – it wants to stop the war, and wants a fair peace settlement. According to Indian strategists, Russia may not lose this war, but it must be brought to the peace table. Can India do that? Modi and Putin discussed Ukraine ‘openly’. Meanwhile, NATO is pledging to increase arms production to keep Ukraine armed. Peace has not been achieved but India is prioritising its ‘interests’ with limited success. It also has full support domestically in this.

The old wisdom is that New Delhi keeps Moscow close to prevent a ‘borderless’ Russia-China relationship. India wants to diversify its investments in Russia, find ways to bring its oil revenues back to Russia without sanctions.

India is doubling down on its investments in Russia’s energy sector, particularly in the Far East. This is significant because Russia fears losing those lands to continued Chinese migration and encroachment. Russia has also rebuilt its military-industrial complex, putting its industries to work to boost its war economy.

The Ukraine war is also teaching lessons. It is teaching India and many countries in the Global South that along with the pursuit of high-tech weapons, there must also be mass-produced medium-tech weapons. Russia is still manufacturing them, supplying many countries in the non-Western world. For India, which is trying to build a domestic defence industry, Russia remains accessible in terms of technology and production.

Nuclear energy has re-entered the bilateral agenda with Russia as part of India’s energy transition plans. Russian cooperation and knowledge sharing is not as rosy as what we have seen at Koodankulam. But it is the only option currently available. India is taking it.

This summit may be entirely bilateral, but as long as Ukraine is not resolved, it will always remain uncomfortable. Discomfort is a key feature of the multipolar world.

(The author is the CEO of Anant Centre. The views expressed in the article are personal.)