Opinion: India was the only lion that grabbed China by the neck and the dragon groaned, the agreement was not reached just like that

Author: Pranab Dhal Samanta
India has given a tough competition to China in Eastern Ladakh. In this diplomatic tug of war, China has been forced to compromise with India. This proves that by being firm, building bargaining power and having tough talks, an aggressive neighbor like China can be forced to retreat. This agreement is an end to the long-standing border dispute between the two countries, especially Depsang. And focuses on patrolling rights in Demchok areas. Since 2020, China had blocked India’s access to an area of ​​about 650 square kilometers in the Depsang plains and two patrolling points in Demchok, which India historically considers its territory.

China’s argument was that these issues predate the 2020 standoff, so they should be treated as ‘legacy issues’ and resolved separately. However, India rejected this argument, insisting that all these issues are part of the current standoff and the standoff cannot end without resolving them.

China had increased its military presence at a narrow pass called ‘bottleneck’ in Depsang, making it difficult for Indian troops to patrol. India insisted on the right to patrol around 70% of its historical claim area in Depsang (about 650 square kilometres).

The area of ​​dispute in Demchok was small, but the issue here was one of principle. India clarified that the agreement will not be acceptable without restoring India’s access to the two patrolling points where China has blocked access to the situation before 2020. Besides, the issue of access to traditional grazing lands of local people across the Indus River and Charding Nullah was also important as China is trying to delineate the Line of Actual Control (LAC) along these water bodies on its side.

China had refused the agreement in 2022. Since then there was a deadlock between the two countries. China had also suggested creating a ‘non-patrol zone’ in Depsang and Demchok on the lines of Pangong Tso Lake. However, India rejected the proposal saying that the size of the disputed area in these two locations is very large and cannot be compared with other smaller disputed locations where troops are separated by only a few kilometres.

It appears that by 2023, China’s stance had started to soften and an agreement was likely to be reached before the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. However, China backed out at the last moment possibly due to pressure from the PLA.

India stuck to its stand and waited for a year. During this time, India strengthened its military deployment at strategically important places in the eastern region such as the Yangtse and Asphala, increasing pressure on China. Ultimately China had to bow down and agree to a compromise.

However, the Indian Army is still cautious as adherence to such agreements must be ensured at the ground level as well. This is why India is insisting that the extent to which the agreement has been implemented on the ground should be investigated.

Talking about other disputed places, the no patrolling principle is still in force there. This was largely the model for resolving the Wangdung (also known as Sumdorong Chu) incident in 1986–87. After talks, both sides withdrew their forces from the heights. After that, the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1988.

This background is important because that visit initiated the negotiations that led to the signing of the Border Peace and Harmony Agreement in 1993. This was followed by a Military Confidence Building Agreement in 1996 to ensure that differences over an undefined and unmarked border do not escalate into violent confrontation.

However, China clearly violated these agreements and several related commitments by deploying large numbers of troops on India’s northern borders in 2020. China did not follow the rules laid down in these agreements, under which any additional military activity along the LAC must be informed to the other side in advance. This clearly reflects hostile intent, as was also seen in the violent confrontation at Galwan Valley in which 20 Indian soldiers were martyred.

Therefore, the first task of the Special Representatives on the border issue – NSA Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi – will be to reach an agreement on operational principles that will be followed by troops on both sides to ensure peace and harmony until A final solution is not found.

The mechanism, which will be relaunched after the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi in Kazan on Wednesday, will also have to decide whether previous agreements are now obsolete and whether new arrangements need to be negotiated. If this process is successful, then a plan can take shape through which India and China can reduce the number of their respective troops on the LAC in Ladakh.

This is the next step for India in the three-phase process of withdrawal of troops, normalization of situation and revival of bilateral relations. But China has not officially agreed to this order and wants to reflect a degree of normalization of relations after the withdrawal of troops and the patrolling agreement. This will be a big decision for the Indian government in the coming days as it will mean relaxation of economic and other sanctions imposed on China.

Once the Army confirms that access has been restored to all patrolling points in Depsang and Demchok, India can consider some aspects of normalization such as gradual confidence building measures.

But any major decision like withdrawal of Press Note 3 (which restricts investments from countries sharing a land border with India) will require more confidence on the border front. In this context, a strong de-escalation model with a freshly approved arrangement on anticipated military behavior along the LAC should be preferred.

The four-year effort to finalize immediate disengagement and patrolling arrangements is a significant success for India as it has forced China to be flexible and compromise. This is an aspect that cannot be seen in any Chinese deal worldwide.