Opinion: Be it Rajput or Yadav, Maratha or Dalit; This time only BJP is the center of tide among castes.

Rajput taking oath

The presence of Karni Sena in Amethi along with former Congress chief minister of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot in a bleak, wave-free election created curiosity among the crowd. Karni Sena, which demands reservation for Rajputs, is touring north India, organizing oath ceremonies in which participants swear not to vote for the BJP.

There is controversy over the caste identity of Mihir Bhoj, a medieval ruler in western Uttar Pradesh; was he/she a Rajput or a Gurjara, as newly installed statues suggest? Elsewhere in Uttar Pradesh, BJP voters are divided over whether their Rajput leader Yogi Adityanath has been sidelined by those in power.

In Gujarat, a Union Minister’s statement regarding the collusion of Rajput rulers with the British has provoked widespread anger. When Ravindra Singh Bhati, a young Rajput politician in Rajasthan, did not get a BJP ticket, he/she challenged the party candidate as an independent candidate. These different campaigns have connected each other through digital media and are increasing anger among Rajputs against the Modi government.

Jat, Maratha, Yadav alliance

In Rajasthan and Haryana, Jats demanding OBC status have rejected the BJP and supported the Congress-led INDIA alliance, while there have been surprisingly close contests in Barmer, Jhunjhunu, Sirsa and Bhiwani-Mahendragarh. However, it is not clear whether the Jats will move on this path in western Uttar Pradesh or not.

Maratha voters in Maharashtra are supporting the opposition by holding the state government responsible for not granting OBC status. The Yadavs of UP and Bihar are historically voting for regional parties dominated by Yadavs, but a large section of them have also leaned towards non-Yadav candidates. The Yadavs’ caste counterparts in Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, which have voted for the BJP in recent elections, may also support INDIA. Like the Rajputs and Jats, Yadavs are also getting organized in new ways in the states due to the anti-incumbency wave.

Are Kshatriya voters really angry with BJP? Or the satrap is killing two birds with one stone… inside story

Mandal politics is back!

These developments are being seen as the return of Mandal politics after a decade of Hindutva dominance. Due to this greed, opposition parties are opening the front for caste census in remote states like Karnataka and Bihar. But there are significant differences between the present times and the days of the Mandal Commission.

Firstly, the BJP is currently in power at the Centre. Till now its political strategy has been to divide the OBC and SC groups and give a new edge to Hindutva through the newly formed groups. The BJP under Modi’s leadership talks with leaders of each group separately, even giving them very important positions like policy making. In turn, sub-castes from reserved categories may prefer to enter the corridors of power rather than suffer political resentment for the next five years.

Second, new economic pressures are now driving the politics of major farming castes like Rajputs and Jats. Due to caste-based reservations, people from OBC, SC and ST backgrounds have made considerable progress compared to dominant groups in rural areas of North India. On the contrary, agriculture is no longer as attractive or prestige-enhancing as it used to be. The castes which earlier gave importance to farming are now fighting for jobs because it has now become a guarantee of financial security. This is the reason why the Modi government has tried to fulfill the wishes of the rural elite by creating the EWS category.

Opinion: When I went searching, I couldn’t find Modi wave anywhere, what are people saying about the elections?
Third, the caste survey in Bihar has given rise to demands for similar surveys in all states from Karnataka to Maharashtra and Telangana. However, so far only the opposition alliance has supported him/her. Congress has proposed a nationwide caste census to guide national welfare policies and remove reservation caps.

BJP has been ignoring this issue. Like Karnataka, many times he/she has mentioned Muslim sub-quota among OBCs. But the BJP has lost a big political opportunity to emerge as the voice of the subordinate castes in Bengal or Tamil Nadu. The promise of a caste census based on the approach of ‘as much population, as much rights’ could have destabilized regional parties in these states.

Opinion: No job, no marriage… Will the army of bachelors not allow Modi to have good luck in the elections?

Rise of small ethnic groups

These elections seem to promise the beginning of an era of new democratic rebirth of the caste. On the one hand, Brahmins and Rajputs can work together with Dalits or tribals under the larger banner of contemporary Hindutva. On the other hand, the rift between OBC and SC groups could give rise to a new wave of anti-BJP politics. Both trends could play out simultaneously in different states, leading to a range of unpredictable electoral possibilities.

To understand these conflicting trends going on in North and South India, we need a new perspective. As India is emerging as a society of many different middle classes with varying levels of uncertainty and security, ethnic pride and anger are becoming dominant ways of demanding welfare and social security benefits.

Changing political alliances within and outside castes are now vying for power. These are demanding policies that pit fragments or micro-groups against each other rather than entire caste groups. In this new game of snakes and ladders, social justice for some can lead to social destruction for others. Therefore, we are forced to think, whose right is at stake and whose justice is at stake?

Bharat Hun is a social anthropologist. Uday Chandra teaches politics and history at Georgetown University, Qatar.