Opinion: After India seized land on LAC, has China now given up deception and started winning hearts?

Author: Vijay Gokhale
There are signs of reducing tension on the border between India and China. Both the countries have reached a mutual understanding to resolve the standoff on LAC in eastern Ladakh since April 2020. The meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping in Russia has also given a positive message in this direction. This is an important step towards improving relations after the long-running tension between the two countries. This agreement has been reached after months of talks between India and China. There are many benefits of this agreement. Firstly, with the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan, political dialogue between the two countries has resumed. Foreign Minister and National Security Advisor level talks will also resume. This is very important because there was no meeting between the top leaders of the two nuclear powered countries for five years. Starting the conversation reduces the risk of misunderstanding and increasing tension.

Second, resolution of the deadlock in Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh will reduce the tension that has been going on for five years and will bring stability in the border area. The process could last a few weeks, but early signs suggest both sides are serious about implementing the agreement. Complete details of the agreement have not been made public yet. But, according to the information, India has not only got the right of way for its military patrol, but has also got back the grazing rights for its herders. In other words, it fulfills the important condition set by the Indian government for normalizing relations with China in 2020.

The agreement covers a large part of the western sector of the India-China border, so it will take time to be fully implemented. Geographical conditions and weather will also affect the process. Talks between the armies of the two countries will continue in eastern Ladakh. It is too early to say whether Indian troops will be able to patrol again in the seven disputed areas in eastern Ladakh where incidents took place in 2020. But, it is expected that India will keep a constant eye on China’s activities. Once there is stability in the border areas, both sides will discuss ways to resume patrolling in these areas.

As of now, the news that there has been an agreement regarding patrolling in some disputed areas in the eastern sector of the border is only speculation because no official announcement has been made in this regard. It is unlikely that there is any connection between the recent agreement in eastern Ladakh and any possible similar exercise in the eastern region. Unless the Indian government is confident that everything has returned to normal in the western region, it is difficult for this to happen. But, the agreement reached in Eastern Ladakh can be implemented as a model in other areas of the India-China border where there are differences over LAC.

As far as the ‘buffer zone’ is concerned, this system was implemented in Barahoti in 1956 and Sumdorong valley in the 1990s. If such a solution reduces tensions and is acceptable to both parties, then it should be kept as an option.

The next phase will be more difficult to reduce tension in eastern Ladakh and make the agreement sustainable. For this, both the parties will have to negotiate patiently. Neither side will want to reduce its military presence unless it is confident that the other side will not take advantage of it. This requires trust, which is lacking.

It is expected that the meeting of the leaders in Kazan will begin the process of rebuilding trust. But, building trust takes time. Until then, the Indian government should follow the principle of ‘trust but test’ and continue to strengthen its military capability. Negotiations and military power building complement each other and are essential for national security. Continuing to invest in the military sector means that future defense budgets will have to increase.

Relations between the two countries should also improve in other areas such as connectivity and trade. Reducing risks in strategic sectors does not mean banning all Chinese goods and investments. Economic interdependence is a reality of the globalized world, and national security interests can be protected through controls without shutting down everything.

It is being said that there are broader geopolitical reasons behind the recent steps taken by India. Fundamentally, this is in line with the government’s stated foreign policy objective, which is multidimensional. Improved relations with China do not mean that other strategic partnerships will be diminished, including the partnership with the US. A multilateral policy is incomplete unless we trade with all major powers, and China is the second largest economic and military power globally.

China may also have considered similar factors in pursuing its relations with India. The Chinese statement has several times mentioned the strategic importance of its relations with India in the context of the global balance of power. After all, its current foreign policy is under pressure from more than one neighbor. On the other hand, the structural nature of the competition between the US and China is also likely to be influenced by who sits in the White House next January.

Progress on the border and the leaders’ meeting probably would not have happened unless China felt it was necessary to normalize relations and understood that this would require compromise. Overall, it can be said that a good start is half the victory and the other half requires rebuilding trust. The responsibility for this lies on China.

The author is a former Foreign Secretary.