NDA vs INDIA: Who will form the government? Who has how many arrows in his/her quiver… Who will be crowned, understand all the equations

New Delhi: Not even 24 hours have passed since the results of the Lok Sabha elections were declared and signs of turmoil have started to appear regarding the government at the center. BJP has become the largest party by securing 240 seats, but is far from the majority figure. To form the government, BJP now has the support of allies including TDP and JDU. As soon as RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar were seen sitting one after the other in the same plane on Wednesday morning, political speculations also started about the formation of the government at the center. Actually, the opposition alliance India has got 234 seats. In such a situation, a question is in everyone’s mind that who will be crowned? Who can form the government at the center? First of all, let’s talk about NDA, which has got 292 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. 272 ​​seats are needed to form the government at the center. NDA’s 292 seats include BJP’s 240, TDP’s 16, JDU’s 12, Shiv Sena (Shinde)’s 7, LJP (Ram Vilas)’s 5, JDS’s 2, RLD’s 2, JSP’s 2, AGP’s 1, UPPL’s ​​1, AJSUP’s 1, NCP’s 1, HAM’s 1 and Apna Dal’s 1 seat. There is a buzz in political circles that the opposition alliance India may now try to bring JDU chief Nitish Kumar to its side. Since Nitish Kumar has changed sides many times before, this buzz is creating more buzz.

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What will happen if Nitish and Chandrababu Naidu leave each other?

Now if we assume that Nitish Kumar once again leaves NDA and joins INC, then with the removal of his/her 12 MPs, the number of NDA will decrease to 280. That is, NDA will still have sufficient numbers to form the government in that situation. Another speculation is going on on social media that the opposition can also try to bring Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP with them. Now if we also assume that after Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu can leave NDA, then after the removal of his/her 16 MPs, the number of NDA seats will decrease to 264. That is, NDA will be 8 seats behind the magic number. In this situation, with the help of Jagan Mohan Reddy’s 4 MPs of YSRCP and 7 independents, the possibility of NDA forming the government will remain. Because, if TDP had separated from NDA, there could have been a possibility of joining hands with YSRCP.

Can a coalition government be formed in India?

Now let’s come to the opposition alliance ‘India’. In the results of the Lok Sabha elections, ‘India’ has got 234 seats. These include 99 seats of Congress, 37 of Samajwadi Party, 29 of Trinamool Congress, 22 of DMK, 9 of Shiv Sena (UBT), 8 of NCP (Sharad Pawar), 4 of RJD, 4 of CPM, 3 of IUML, 3 of Aam Aadmi Party, 3 of JMM, 2 of JKNC, 2 of VCK, 2 of CPI, 2 of CPI (ML) and 1 seat each of KC, RLTP, BADVP, MDMK and RSP. In this way, the opposition alliance is 38 seats short of the numbers needed to form the government.

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Where can 38 seats come from for a majority?

Now if the opposition alliance ‘India’ takes steps towards forming the government at the centre, then first of all it will have to arrange for these 38 seats. Suppose the opposition gets the support of 6 independents and Chandrashekhar of Azad Samaj Party except Pappu Yadav, then its number will increase from 234 to 241. That is, still 31 seats away from the majority figure. Here, if we do the calculation according to the equation written above and add Chandrababu Naidu along with Nitish, then after adding the number of MPs of both, the opposition will have 269 seats. This number is still 3 seats less than the figure of 272. Now for these three seats, the opposition will have to take along Apna Dal (1) and RLD (2), after which it will have the majority figure. But, in this situation, the biggest question will be who will get the post of Prime Minister in this coalition government?