NDA lost even after winning, India won even after losing, these are the results of Lok Sabha elections

What is the meaning of this mandate?

This time after the Lok Sabha elections, people are discussing that both the ruling party and the opposition are happy with this result. Some people are saying that NDA is happy because it has come to power for the third time but why is the opposition happy? The biggest reason for the opposition being happy is that in the Narendra Modi wave, the opposition was slowly vanishing and was being broken. The opposition was not even in a position to fight its own battle. But today the opposition is in a position where it can fight its own battle even while being in the opposition. The defeat of the ruling party is that the state from where it got the maximum number of seats in the last election was Uttar Pradesh but it got a tough defeat there. BJP set a huge target of 400 seats but failed to get even as many seats as it got in the last Lok Sabha elections. The victory of the ruling party is in the sense that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scoring a hat-trick. he/she will be the second leader after Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru who has become Prime Minister for the third consecutive time.

Why did this happen?

• The trump card of Ram Mandir did not work!

On 22 January, on the day of the consecration of Ram Mandir, a different atmosphere was seen in the country. There was an atmosphere of celebration not only in UP but in the whole country. The day was also big because the dream of building Ram Mandir was coming true. With the enthusiasm that was visible that day, BJP tried to create a strong wave in the whole country including UP. But this issue gradually faded among the public and BJP could not understand it. BJP was considering Ram Mandir as its trump card which did not work. The biggest example of this is Samajwadi Party getting 37 seats in UP and BJP’s crushing defeat in Awadh region. Generally, the discussion among the people dominated that Ram Mandir was achieved but apart from this there are other issues too.

• Some statements scared the backward people

During the election campaign, one or two BJP leaders made statements that changes can be made in the Constitution. However, later they or the party also distanced themselves from those statements. But the leaders of the INDIA alliance took full advantage of it. During his/her election campaign, Rahul Gandhi was seen showing the Constitution in public meetings. he/she kept repeating that we are fighting to save the Constitution. In the last few years, BJP was successful in wooing the backward vote bank, but this time the backward class did not support BJP.

• Inactivity of RSS

RSS and BJP have always been close friends but this time in the Lok Sabha elections, both kept a distance. Rather, it can be said that BJP did not ask for the support of RSS. RSS pracharaks and volunteers engaged in social and contact work among the common people across the country were not seen during the election process. Earlier in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, such inactivity of RSS volunteers was seen, due to which BJP had to be out of power despite the slogan of ‘India Shining’. BJP National President J.P. Nadda had indicated in his/her statement that BJP does not need anyone.

• BSP coming openly in the field

In the last decade, BSP has weakened itself a lot. BSP has been accused of working as BJP’s B team. This time BSP gave priority to Muslim candidates in ticket distribution so that the vote bank of India alliance could be dented but Dalit class and Muslim voters considered voting for BSP a waste of votes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP’s vote percentage fell to 2.07%, which was 3.67% in 2019. BSP’s vote percentage decreased by 1.6% and seats became zero.

• The opposition was in a do or die situation

In this Lok Sabha election, it was a do or die situation for the opposition because ED and CBI were constantly raiding the opposition leaders. The last 5 years have been very difficult for the opposition leaders. Suspension of about 150 MPs from the House, Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren going to jail on corruption charges, Rahul Gandhi being expelled from the Lok Sabha were important decisions against the opposition. Due to these developments, the opposition put its heart and soul into this election. Its effect was also seen in the election results.

• caste census issue

INDIA alliance has been vocal about caste census from the beginning. The politics of caste census in Bihar was started by Tejashwi and Nitish Kumar. Caste census was conducted in Bihar. After this, both Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi played this card aggressively. Using this as an excuse, they reached out to OBCs. They also got success in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. However, in the middle of the elections, Narendra Modi definitely tried to counter the opposition on the issue of caste census. he/she said that the opposition wants to divide the reservation of backward classes among Muslims, but somewhere the opposition got the benefit of continuously sticking to this issue.

• ‘Bharat Jodo’ Yatra changed the image of Rahul Gandhi

Congress’s ‘Bharat Jodo’ Yatra completely changed Rahul Gandhi’s image. Rahul Gandhi’s political credibility increased and the confidence of Congress workers returned. During this journey, he/she developed an understanding of the local issues of different areas of the country. During this journey, he/she met thousands of farmers, laborers, women, youth, and common people. he/she understood their issues like inflation and unemployment and was successful in explaining them to the people in his/her public meetings. Congress, which had won 52 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, won 99 seats.

• The opposition was successful in making inflation and unemployment an issue

The issue of unemployment and inflation was there among the people but it had been marginalized. Under the pretext of Ram Mandir, BJP tried to fight this election on the agenda of Hindutva. The opposition stuck to the issue of unemployment and inflation. But BJP could not present any counter to this. Every time it used to happen that BJP used to prepare the pitch of Hindutva in the election field and the opposition had to play on this pitch even if it did not want to. This time the INDIA alliance prepared the election pitch of unemployment and inflation.

• Anger of Rajput and Jat community

The effect of Rajput and Jat community’s resentment against BJP was also seen in the election results. Congress and other regional opposition parties directly benefited from this resentment. In Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and other states, Congress and regional parties took advantage of the resentment of these communities and created an atmosphere in their favour. Despite knowing everything, BJP kept ignoring it. In UP, BJP ignored the Rajput community in ticket distribution, while there was also a situation of discontent over the issue of farmers’ movement and Jat reservation.

What will happen next?

• Opposition in a strong role

The election results have given a clear message that this time the opposition will be in a strong role. The effect of this strength will be that the opposition will be more aggressive both inside and outside the House. For the first time in 10 years, the Leader of the Opposition will get a place in the House. The Leader of the Opposition has the status and protocol of a cabinet minister. he/she will have a role in all major decisions. At the same time, the number of opposition members is more, so in such a situation the opposition will be able to speak more openly on any wrong decision.

• Changes in the proceedings of Parliament

Changes can be seen in the proceedings of Parliament. BJP will have to take the opinion of other alliance partners in every proceeding of Parliament. Because of this, what is going on within the government will also come in the media and through this, this news will also reach the common people. Till now, most of the standing committees of the Parliament House remained inactive, which are called mini parliament. But now they can come into a strong and active role. Earlier, BJP was in majority on its own, so other parties which were not in the alliance also used to support it in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha. Earlier, many bills were passed in the House without any discussion, but now its possibility seems less.

• Bills on BJP’s agenda will be shelved

For the first time in his/her political career, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading a coalition government. Earlier, it used to happen that if any law came in the House, it was almost guaranteed to be passed, but now this will not happen. BJP has been continuously demanding the implementation of Uniform Civil Code in the country. At the same time, bills like Population Control Law and One Nation One Election are also BJP’s priority. But in the coming time, it will be difficult to bring such a bill in the House because it does not seem that the coalition partners will agree on it.

• What will happen to the Agniveer scheme

All the opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and Tejashwi Yadav raised the issue of Agniveer Yojana aggressively in their public meetings. Its effect was also seen in the election results. Nitish Kumar is a partner in the NDA alliance. Before the formation of the government, JDU spokesperson K.C. Tyagi said that the Agniveer scheme for army recruitment should be reviewed. In such a situation, there is full hope that the government will think about it again or make changes in it.

• Credibility of agencies will increase

Agencies like ED and CBI have been under question in the last few years because most of the action has been taken against opposition leaders. In a coalition government, there will be fewer questions on the credibility of these agencies because the opposition and the ruling party’s coalition partners will also have a big role in the selection of the chief of these agencies.

• Reliability of EVM will increase

In the last decade, questions have been raised about EVM. Whenever BJP came to power with a huge majority in the centre or in any state, the opposition would raise the issue of EVM prominently. The issue of EVM reached such a point that the Election Commission had to install VV Pad to ensure its credibility. It was also discussed in the Parliament. This matter reached the Supreme Court. But the mandate has increased the credibility of EVM.

• The era of coalitions is back

Even though BJP is confident of running the government easily for 5 years, it will be dependent on parties like JDU and TDP. BJP ran the government with a clear majority for 10 years, but now the era of coalition government has returned. Due to this, the role and importance of regional parties will increase in important decisions of the country.

• Tough decisions may create hurdles

The government remained firm on tough decisions like demonetisation and agriculture bill. The farmers’ agitation continued for a long time. The government also remained silent on the Manipur incident. But in the coming times, the government will have to listen to everyone, whether it is the opposition or the allies. The discontent that had grown among the people against the central government will also reduce.