MP gave accurate prediction but why did Phalodi satta bazaar fail in Lok Sabha?

New Delhi: Till the evening of June 3, a day before the results of the Lok Sabha elections, no one had any idea that the results coming the next day would surprise in this way. Almost all the exit polls were giving a huge number of seats to the BJP. Even some exit polls showed the BJP-led NDA touching the 400 mark. The BJP leaders themselves believed that PM Modi’s charisma would work and they would get more seats than the majority. But, when the election results came on June 4, all the claims were shattered. Exit polls proved wrong. Even the famous Phalodi Satta Bazaar of Rajasthan, which predicts in every election, also failed. Phalodi Satta Bazaar is known for its accurate predictions in the matter of elections, cricket matches and weather forecasts. This time, Phalodi Satta Bazaar had predicted the seats of BJP for both the country and Rajasthan. However, Phalodi Satta Bazaar proved wrong in both the places. Till late Monday night, a day before the counting of votes, Phalodi Satta Bazaar was giving 303 to 306 seats to the BJP. The betting market had placed a price of 1:1 on this prediction. This meant that a bet of Rs 1 would give a profit of Rs 1.

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Bets were also placed on Rajasthan seats

Along with BJP, Phalodi Satta Bazaar had also made predictions about Congress. Satta Bazaar had estimated that Congress will get 61 to 63 seats. Phalodi Satta Bazaar had kept a 1:1 rate for Congress as well. Apart from seats across the country, bets were also placed on Rajasthan seats in Phalodi Satta Bazaar. Satta Bazaar predicted a maximum of 20 and a minimum of 19 seats for BJP in Rajasthan. Whereas, Satta Bazaar’s prediction for Congress was 6 seats.

The air of the speculative market has gone out everywhere

When the results were declared on 4th June, BJP got only 240 seats. Apart from this, BJP won only 14 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan. Congress won a total of 99 Lok Sabha seats. It got 8 seats in Rajasthan. In this way, Phalodi Satta Bazaar failed in predicting the seats of both BJP and Congress. Neither its prediction was correct for Rajasthan nor in the case of 543 Lok Sabha seats of the country. What was the reason that the Phalodi Satta Bazaar, which gave an accurate prediction for the seats of Madhya Pradesh Assembly, collapsed in the Lok Sabha elections.

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What is the reason behind the failure of Phalodi Satta Bazar

A bookie who keeps a close eye on the Phalodi Satta Bazar says that till the last minute there was no indication in the market that BJP will win less than 300 seats. If there is a difference of 7-8 seats in the Satta Bazar survey, then it is a big deal. Another bookie told about this that there are many strong sources of political information in the Satta Bazar. People associated with big and major political parties are involved here. The Satta Bazar decides the price on the basis of the input received from them. However, it keeps fluctuating according to the trend.

The speculative market decides the price based on the trends

This bookie further said, ‘When the Phalodi Satta Bazaar opened two months before the Lok Sabha elections, very few seats were predicted for the BJP. However, by the middle of April, this number increased. Bookies were expecting the BJP to win a maximum of 325 and a minimum of 322 seats, and they were accepting bets accordingly. However, this does not mean that all the bookies lost. Some had placed bets on the BJP and some on the Congress. The market decides the price only on the basis of trends. The Phalodi Satta Bazaar does not work to influence any bookie. People can place bets as they wish.’