Modi 3.0: What are the challenges before India regarding foreign policy, understand each point

New Delhi : Narendra Modi has started his/her third innings as Prime Minister. In the new government, the responsibility of the Ministry of External Affairs has once again been handed over to S Jaishankar. In such a situation, the question is what can be the foreign policy in the third innings of the Narendra Modi government? The absence of any change at the top in the Ministry of External Affairs largely indicates continuity. However, there may be some changes and re-fixing of the agenda for specific areas based on the changing global situation and Indian strategic imperatives. In such a situation, the next five years will bring challenges as well as opportunities for Indian foreign policy. Let us take a look at what challenges India is going to face on the foreign front.

The China Challenge

The border standoff is about to enter its fifth year. The task before Modi 3.0 is difficult and complicated. India has said that everything cannot be settled until the situation on the border normalises. New Delhi wants a complete withdrawal and then de-escalation. It will take a lot of time to remove 50,000-60,000 troops and weapons from both sides of the border. High-level contacts, especially Modi’s meeting with President Xi Jinping during the SCO summit in Kazakhstan in the first week of July, could increase the chances of this situation opening up.

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Relations with Pakistan

In his/her swearing-in ceremony in 2014, Modi had invited the leaders of SAARC countries, including Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. India’s relations with Pakistan fluctuated in 2014 and 2015, but the relationship deteriorated further after the terrorist attacks in Pathankot and Uri in 2016. Relations with Pakistan took a serious blow after the Pulwama attack and the Balakot attack in 2019. Article 370 was abolished in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. This led to a deterioration in diplomatic relations between the two countries. The situation in Pakistan has changed since then. Imran Khan, who was prime minister in 2019, is in jail. Pakistan’s economy is in deep crisis. Now Nawaz Sharif, who now has the support of the army, is back in power. Nawaz and his/her brother, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, have given a message of peace. PM Modi has said that combating Pak-sponsored terrorism is India’s priority. For the last nine years, New Delhi’s policy has been that terrorism and dialogue cannot go together. The series of terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir in the last few days have destroyed the possibility of building public opinion in favour of a possible dialogue.

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Nepal’s delicate challenge

Relations with Nepal pose a delicate challenge. China has a strong political hold in Nepal. The Kathmandu government, in which former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is a key player, is believed to be trying to use the Beijing card against New Delhi. Nepal’s decision to put unilaterally redrawn borders on the national currency suggests this will continue. New Delhi will have to work hard to regain the trust of the Nepali people, which suffered a setback after the 2015 economic blockade.

Preparations for talks with Maldives

President Mohamed Muizzu was present at PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. his/her visit was particularly significant. After India removed Indian Air Force military personnel from the Maldives and deployed trained technical personnel in the Maldives at the request of the Muizzu government, New Delhi and Maldives appeared ready for talks.

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No diplomatic relations with Afghanistan

There has been no diplomatic ties with Kabul since the Taliban took power in August 2021. There has been low-level engagement through a technical team appointed to help with humanitarian assistance, but high-level engagement has been ruled out for now. The working relationship is likely to continue.

Myanmar will be monitored

PM Modi has not invited Myanmar to his/her swearing-in ceremony. India’s challenge at the moment has been to engage with the junta government which has been engaged in armed resistance internally. Myanmar’s government army has been on the defensive since the fighting began in October 2023. It has been suggested in Indian strategic circles that given the possibility of the government falling, New Delhi should start engaging with opposition groups.

Common objectives with Bangladesh

Election rhetoric about infiltrators has often soured relations with Dhaka. Greater restraint by the government and ruling party members during Modi 3.0 may prove beneficial, as both sides have the same objective of combating extremism, radicalism and terrorism.

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Bhutan: Hope good relations continue

India is ready to assist Thimpu with its five-year plan, financial incentive package and Gelephu Mindfulness City project. This is expected to continue, especially as China tries to negotiate the border with Bhutan on its terms. India wants Bhutan, which is caught between the two Asian giants, to be on its side.

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Sri Lanka: Emphasis on strengthening the economy

The goodwill that India earned on the Sri Lankan streets after helping Sri Lanka deal with its economic crisis has been put at risk by unnecessarily raising the Kachchatheevu issue ahead of elections in Tamil Nadu. Strengthening Sri Lanka’s economy through financial assistance as well as investments will be a key task ahead of the elections later this year.

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Western countries: Engagement will continue

The Modi government’s engagement with the West has been more transactional than that of many previous governments. It has also developed strong strategic ties with the US, Europe, Japan and Australia. There was a lot of noise about Western ‘interference’ during the campaign as criticism of the government in the Western media was provoked. The aggressive Indian response showed that the government, even after a decade in power, is extremely sensitive to comments in the West. Also sometimes to mild comments from Western governments. Demarches were issued against friendly Western governments like the US and Germany during the election season. India’s relationship with the US has the support of both parties. It is not expected to be affected by the results of the presidential election in November. Defence and cutting-edge technology will drive the relationship going forward. Economic and political relations with European countries like France and Germany have improved. The UK is keen to enter into a free trade agreement (FTA) with India. India and the EU are also keen to enter into an FTA for the mutual benefit of their economies.

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Political relations with Canada

Relations have been on a downward slide since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of having a hand in the killing of yet another Khalistani separatist. This is likely to remain tense at least until the 2025 Canadian elections. However, economic ties and student flows to Canada have not been affected. Western countries would like to see Modi 3.0 less sensitive to criticism and comments and more willing to engage and do business with them. From New Delhi’s point of view, the ideal scenario would be to keep Indian interests secure, benefit from Western capital and technology, while not lecturing it on its domestic affairs. The Prime Minister’s participation in the G7 in Italy could signal a step in this direction.

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Russia: Ukraine war becomes a test

India’s relations with Russia are being tested by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Defence needs are the main reason for India’s dependence on Russia. Also, the availability of cheap oil has now expanded to include energy. Russia has not bowed to Western sanctions. It now has a broad edge in the war. India is likely to skip the highest-level peace conference to be held in Switzerland on June 15-16. This is because Russia will not be there. However, India is expected to be represented at the official level and emphasize on dialogue and diplomacy. For peace, both Russia and Ukraine must come to the negotiating table. While Modi 3.0 will want to contribute to the process, he/she will not want to harm himself.

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West Asia: A lot is at stake

There is a lot at stake in West Asia. Modi 1.0 and Modi 2.0 have built relationships with countries and leaders from Saudi Arabia to Israel, UAE to Iran, Qatar to Egypt. Energy security, investment and the 90 million Indian diaspora in the region have been of utmost importance to India. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), I2U2, International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC) are all considered game changers, but the Israel-Hamas conflict has created uncertainty. India would like to see an end to the war in Gaza.