Lok Sabha results changed the political wind in Bihar and Modi made a big move, what will happen to Tejaswi?

New Delhi: New political dynamics are emerging in Bihar after the results of the Lok Sabha elections. Seven MPs from Bihar have found a place in the Modi 3.0 cabinet, including three from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and four from allies. These include Nityanand Rai from Ujiarpur and Giriraj Singh from Begusarai. Other members in the current cabinet are new faces. Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan, son of the late Ram Vilas Paswan, have been included in the cabinet. Dr. Raj Bhushan Chaudhary represents the Mallah community from Muzaffarpur. At the same time, Ramnath Thakur, son of the messiah of social justice and late former Chief Minister Karpuri Thakur, has also joined the cabinet.

BJP is laying a trap to trap Tejashwi in Bihar

The inclusion of NDA allies in the central government shows that the BJP is focusing on political mobilisation for the upcoming Bihar assembly elections. One of its key strategies is to keep extremely backward class (EBC) and Dalit votes in its fold to corner the RJD and its leader Tejashwi Yadav. The importance of EBC votes has increased after the Bihar government’s caste survey as it revealed that 63% of the state’s population are OBCs. EBCs are part of this category. When Dalits and Adivasis are added, the figure reaches 85%. This reinforces the narrative of 85 vs 15 i.e. backward vs forward, which has been an important aspect of Bihar’s caste politics since the 1980s.

A new camp is being formed in Bihar

The importance of backward caste politics has increased in post-Mandal politics. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav bet on non-Yadav OBCs, especially the Kushwaha community. he/she gave the formula of MY BAAP (Muslim Yadav, Bahujan, Adivasi, half population-women, backward) in the Lok Sabha elections. In the election, Tejashwi’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had an alliance with Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Sahni represents the Nishad community, which includes about 22 castes involved in river-related businesses. Raj Bhushan Chaudhary, BJP MP from Muzaffarpur, was originally a member of Sahni’s VIP who lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Sahni’s rise on Bihar’s electoral scene shows that there is an opportunity for new leaders within the Nishad community. Sahni said, ‘We are making others leaders by voting, now we will make our people leaders and increase the power of our vote.’

Who is the new leader of EBC castes?

Leadership has been a persistent challenge for many EBC castes, leading to the formation of small caste-based parties in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The BJP has gained a large share of the vote bank of many EBC communities by leveraging the symbols of Hindutva politics. However, the forward versus backward narrative from the caste census has seen the EBC vote return to the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in Bihar.

Nitish started EBC politics

Nitish Kumar has maintained his/her influence over EBC votes with welfare schemes and developmental policies. However, his/her unstable alliances and declining personal appeal have raised doubts about whether he/she will continue to hold power in the future. The low vote share of JDU despite its presence shows that Nitish Kumar’s personal popularity will face tough scrutiny in the 2025 assembly elections.

What will happen in the 2025 assembly elections?

The inclusion of EBC and Dalit leaders in the Modi government is a strategic move keeping in mind the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. By making leaders from these communities Union ministers, the BJP is setting the stage for the upcoming state elections. The BJP may also project Chirag Paswan as a contender against Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar.

Chirag is seen as a progressive young leader. his/her appeal within the Paswan community and his/her wide support base can be a threat to the growing popularity of Tejashwi Yadav. Tejashwi does not want to let his/her image be created as the leader of the Yadavs. For this, he/she coined the formula of Mai-Baap.
The results of the Lok Sabha elections are giving clear indications that Bihar is waiting for new leadership. The upcoming 2025 assembly elections will be very interesting in the sense whether any leader will be able to fulfill this wait.