Lok Sabha elections raised hopes but states disappointed, story of ups and downs of Congress in 2024

CL Manoj: After a decade of continuous defeats and crises, the year 2024 proved to be a year of ups and downs for the Congress and the opposition. This year was a year of moments of liberation, joy and then despair. The Modi-led government won its third consecutive term, but the India Bloc was relieved that the BJP lost the majority on its own. This decline in numbers created some political space for the opposition. This helped the India Bloc maintain pressure on Modi 3.0 in the initial sessions of the new Lok Sabha. However, even before the enthusiasm subsided, the opposition suffered crushing defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra. These were the main states he/she was hoping to win to strengthen his/her Lok Sabha election performance.

from excitement to discord

The two defeats not only halted that ambition, but also stifled opposition victories in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand. Worse, they exposed rifts within the India block. In this, some allies raised questions on the ability of Congress and Rahul Gandhi to lead the fight against BJP. So, for the Congress and the opposition, 2025 is ripe with possibilities—recovery or withering.

cracks under the facade

Why did Congress’s defeat in Haryana and Maharashtra have such a massive impact on the opposition alliance? According to many opposition leaders, these defeats exposed the tensions and conflicting interests that were hidden in the excitement over the Lok Sabha results. The latest results have sparked a blame war within the bloc.

Some opposition leaders said that the Congress leadership took credit for the India Bloc’s Lok Sabha performance after its consecutive election defeats since 2014. It also damaged the reputation of the Gandhi family. The faction highlighted its victory in 99 seats out of a total of 234 seats as a sign of a dramatic comeback. It attributed its success largely to the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and the impact of his/her two ‘Bharat Jodo Yatras’.

Congress lags behind its allies in Lok Sabha

BJP’s failure to get a majority on its own despite an aggressive ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 Par’ campaign gave additional space to the Congress to show off. Whereas the fact is that 99 seats is the third lowest Lok Sabha score in the history of Congress. Congress won 44 seats in 2014 and 53 seats in 2019. On the other hand, many regional parties felt that it was their performance that halted the BJP’s advance.

At least five regional India Bloc parties have overtaken the Congress in terms of resistance and strike rates in their respective states. SP (37 seats), Trinamool (29), DMK (22), Shiv Sena-UBT (9) and NCP-SP (8) together won 105 seats, while Congress contested 326 seats across the country and won 99 seats. .

Regional parties looked strong

Regional party leaders said it was their grassroots strength that stopped the BJP’s advance in key states like UP, West Bengal and Maharashtra. In comparison, the Congress performed poorly in most states. Especially where he/she directly challenged the BJP. These include Madhya Pradesh (0/27), Gujarat (1/23), Assam (3/13), Odisha (1/20), Chhattisgarh (1/11), Uttarakhand (0/5), Himachal Pradesh (0/4). And Delhi (0/7).

It lagged even in Karnataka (9/28) and Telangana (8/17). Only in Rajasthan (8/22) and Haryana (5/10) did the Congress make a partial comeback against the BJP.

Rift increases before Delhi elections

Regional party leaders said most of the Congress’s Lok Sabha seats came either by fighting against regional parties or by patting allies on the back. he/she argues that this means that the Bharat Jodo Yatra has failed to make a dent in the BJP’s strongholds. The growing uneasiness within the Bharat Bloc was expressed in a public demand by the Trinamool.

In this, some allies were also involved, that Mamata Banerjee should be made the leader of India Bloc. AAP is clearly gearing up before the Delhi elections. She is threatening to oust Congress from the alliance, due to which the rift is widening.

Bad sign for India Block

India Bloc’s weak internal chemistry is evident from the fact that its top organizational leaders did not hold any systematic meeting after the June 4 Lok Sabha results. The last such meeting was held in Delhi on June 2, after their previous conferences in Patna, Bengaluru, Mumbai and Delhi. Here it was announced that their exit polls showed the block winning at least 295 seats.

Most India Bloc allies refused to join the Gandhi-led Congress protests in Parliament on the Adani issue. Most of them decided to carry on with their own agendas. This also exposed disagreement on the floor of the House. Home Minister Amit Shah’s alleged derogatory remarks against BR Ambedkar may have provided a meeting point for the block at the end of the session, but it had more to do with their sensitivity towards the ‘Dalit vote bank’.

It is necessary to implement Belagavi declaration

Even though the alliance may have benefited from collectively mobilizing the Dalit-OBC-minority sections during the Lok Sabha elections, the group has so far shown no desire to take to the streets en masse on the fresh ‘start’ given by Shah’s remarks. Is shown. With its agitation plans announced at the Belagavi CWC meeting, the Congress has now decided to hit the ground. However, many say the challenge will be to ensure that the ‘Belagavi Action Plan’ is not limited to mere symbolism and paper, as was the case with the ‘Udaipur Declaration’.

ego clash

The underlying conflict of ambitions, egos and regional rivalries within the India block is clearly visible. This makes the Gandhi-led Congress and the parties of Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal uneasy allies. For many regional allies, the ‘looming threat of BJP’ is any day better than a ‘resurgent Congress’ to help them retain their region and vote bank.

This fact leads to the work of a strategic caucus of regional parties against the Congress within the India Bloc. Apart from this, after the defeat of MVA, there is uncertainty on the paths of Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP and Thackeray’s SS-UBT. After the Jammu and Kashmir elections, there is a clear thaw in Congress-National Conference relations. It is also a guessing game as to how long the DMK can resist its basic instinct to bargain with Delhi, especially if the tussle within the bloc continues.

Gandhi family and party

The defeat in the state elections and the discord in the alliance have once again focused attention on the working style of the Congress leadership, especially Team Gandhi, rather than on the political, organizational and alliance management. In comparison, the Gandhi family demonstrated a protective and pragmatic approach to protecting their family interests last year.

The family trio avoided any heroic personal fight to reclaim the family glory in Amethi. It outsourced to Kishori Lal Sharma. Also, to secure their seats in Parliament and strengthen their hold on leadership, they chose the safe routes of Rajya Sabha, Wayanad and Rae Bareli. All this happened when Mallikarjun Kharge appeared to be happily adjusting to the role of a nominal Congress chief.

Whereas ‘Family Planning’ underlined a larger issue of survival. It also triggered whispers within Congress office-bearers that they wanted an equal focus on securing the broader interests of the party. As there is a clamor for attention in party circles.

Rahul Gandhi appears confident that his/her seasonal priorities will work. These include ‘Janeudhari’ efforts for political ‘austerity’, emphasis on Mandal themes, awareness of Ambedkar and constitutional causes, leftist-to-leftist mockery of ‘Adani-Ambani’.

There is a growing feeling within the party that to secure the future, the work at the grassroots level and in the organization should have been much better, sustained and focused. But, given that the AICC establishment continues to operate on a system designed to exchange the loyalty of nominated functionaries for the protection of the Gandhi family. In such a situation, any internal open discussion and debate on unpleasant truths and party matters would be like stepping into a landmine.

Priyanka Factor
Amidst this lull in the party, many Congressmen are seeing AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into Parliament as an interesting beginning. It is too early to decide whether his/her Lok Sabha innings will help in improving his/her forgettable record of ‘Mission Uttar Pradesh’ and bring about change or not. But Priyanka’s entry into Parliament has further strengthened her as the third power center within the family.

This has led to the ‘working of’ and never-ending palace struggle for ‘professional loyalists’, ‘tired Rahul loyalists’, ‘impatient Priyanka campers’, and ‘secretly disgruntled’ people among the ‘structural engineers’ in the Congress establishment. In conspiracies one gets a new area and plot to ‘play’. Trust them to make this their ‘real’ New Year’s resolution number 1, beyond the Belagavi announcements.