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Tuesday, July 23rd, 2024

Lok Sabha elections: Huge drop in vote share, loss of 63 seats… BJP’s report card is very poor

New Delhi: BJP is going to form the government with the help of NDA allies. PM Modi will take oath as Prime Minister for the third time. Despite that, there is a lot of discussion in political circles about the decline in BJP’s seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 303 seats with a spectacular victory, out of which it got more than 50% votes on 224 seats. This time not only did BJP fail to cross the majority mark and won only 240 seats, but it got more than 50% votes only on 156 seats. In 2019, BJP got more than 50% votes on 224 seats, out of which it got more than 70% on 7 seats, between 60% to 70% on 77 seats and between 50% to 60% on 140 seats.

BJP lost huge seats

In 2024, BJP again got more than 70% votes on 7 seats, but won only half the seats as compared to 2019, that is, 39 seats with 60% to 70% vote share. The number of seats with 50% to 60% votes also decreased from 140 to 110. Apart from this, the party won 78 seats with 40% to 50% vote share and 5 seats with 30% to 40% vote share. Voting did not take place in Surat as the BJP candidate was alone. Out of 224 seats with more than 50% votes in 2019, this time BJP was able to save 176 seats and lost 45. Of these, 29 seats went to Congress and 8 seats to Samajwadi Party (SP). This time BJP had left 3 seats out of 224 seats for its allies JDU, JDS and Rashtriya Lok Dal and all three won. Of the 176 seats where BJP had won by getting more than 50% of the votes in 2019, this time BJP’s vote share decreased in 132 seats and increased by 5% or more in only 12 seats. If we exclude the seats that BJP gave to allies and the Surat seat, where BJP won without any contest, then BJP’s average vote share decreased by 5.31% in the remaining 224 seats.

How was the performance of BJP in the states?

In Barmer, Rajasthan, BJP’s vote share dropped from 59.52% in 2019 to just 17% this time, and Congress won this seat. Out of the 156 seats that BJP won with more than 50% of the votes this time, only 10 seats were such that BJP could not win in 2019, while there are 5 seats which BJP won with less than 50% of the votes in 2019. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won all 25 seats with more than 50% of the votes, this is the highest number of seats from any state where BJP has got more than 50% of the votes. BJP did this in 2019 as well. BJP won 23 out of 26 seats in Gujarat and 17 out of 28 seats in Karnataka by getting more than half the votes. In the four other states where the BJP won all the seats – Delhi (7), Uttarakhand (5), Himachal Pradesh (4) and Tripura (2), all the victories were achieved by securing more than 50% of the votes. The BJP had similarly won all the seats in Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh in 2019.

How was the report card of India Alliance?

The India Alliance of opposition parties won 68 seats with more than half the votes, but none of them got more than 70%. 8 seats got between 60% and 70% of the votes, and the remaining 60 seats between 50% and 60%. The highest number of seats with more than 50% of the votes came from Tamil Nadu, where the DMK won 8 seats. It was followed by Congress with 2 and CPI(M) with 1. In Maharashtra, the India Alliance won 9 seats with more than half the votes. Congress won 5, NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT) won 2 seats each. In Rajasthan, Congress won 6 seats with more than half the votes, CPI(M) and Bharat Adivasi Party won 1 seat each. Similarly, the India Alliance won seats in other states as well, including West Bengal (7), Uttar Pradesh (6), Karnataka and Kerala (5-5), Assam, Jharkhand and Telangana (3-3), Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir (2-2), and Lakshadweep, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Puducherry (1-1). India Alliance parties secured more than 50% of the votes in 68 of the total 233 seats. In 2019, this number was just 54 out of 120 seats, when the Shiv Sena and NCP were together. Congress secured more than 50% of the votes in 37 of its 99 seats. It was followed by the DMK with 8 seats and the Trinamool Congress with 7 seats.

BJP’s performance is poor in these states including UP

BJP’s performance has been weak in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. These are the states from where the party won many seats with more than 50% vote share in 2019. Last time, out of the total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, BJP won 40 seats, out of which it also got more than half the votes. This time this number has come down to just 13. In Maharashtra, the seats with more than 50% votes decreased from 15 to 5 and in Rajasthan this number decreased from 23 to 12.

How was the performance of BJP’s allies?

Apart from BJP, other parties in the NDA won a total of 53 seats this time, out of which they got more than 50% of the votes in 30 seats. Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had more than 50% vote share in 13 out of 16 victories. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) got more than 50% of the votes in 4 out of 5 seats it won in Bihar. JDU achieved this feat in 3 out of its 12 victories. Among other NDA members, JD(S), Shiv Sena and Jansena Party got more than 50% of the votes in two seats each. Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Hindustan Awami Morcha (Secular), NCP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) achieved this feat in one seat each.

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