India’s role increased between Russia and Ukraine… Modi got a big opportunity as soon as he/she became PM for the third time

Author: Harsh V PantAt the beginning of his/her new term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has got a good opportunity. This is an opportunity to mediate in the peace conference, which is being described in the West as the most important peace conference after the Second World War. Narendra Modi, who has secured his/her third consecutive term in the world’s largest democracy, is today among the most senior and longest-ruling global leaders. The special thing is that India, which is considered the leading voice of the Global South, has already been a strong advocate of establishing peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Protector of the Global South
Participation in the peace conference will position India as a key advocate for the Global South, especially in addressing supply chain disruptions and energy crisis and food insecurity. Therefore, India should emphasize the importance of democracy, diplomacy and dialogue as the three pillars to bring peace to Ukraine and lasting stability to the region.

Timing of the conference
This peace conference is taking place at a time when Modi is not only basking in the glow of a new mandate, but the aura of India’s success in G20 leadership is also intact. The European countries that were initially critical of India’s stance for not directly condemning Russia are also trying to woo it by toning down their criticism. Obviously, this conference is giving India and PM Modi a valuable opportunity to strengthen New Delhi’s credibility as a global mediator through its messages of peace.

The crisis of the Global South
The Russia-Ukraine war has also diverted many crucial development funds from the Global South, further exacerbating the economic impact of the war on these countries. Obviously, with its non-aligned stance and ties with both countries, India can emerge as a leader of the Global South by playing an effective role in the peace talks.

Impact of G20 Presidency
Developing countries have been saying that rich countries should increase efforts to help their economies. These economies were badly affected by the Corona epidemic. War has further increased the challenges. An example of this is the reduction in official development assistance to the Global South and the increase in the debt burden on these economies. India’s successful G-20 presidency in 2023, which made the joint declaration on the Russia-Ukraine war possible and ensured the African Union’s entry into the G-20, is a clear indication of India’s growing influence in shaping the emerging global order.

Europe’s interest
Europe is also interested in India’s potentially influential role. Of note, there has been a growing realisation in recent times that European countries have not done much to win the trust of developing countries. In such a situation, when both the West and the Global South accept India’s leadership and influence, it has a favorable opportunity to find a way out that is free from the burden of the past. If peace is established between Russia and Ukraine under India’s leadership, then economic security will increase for the countries of the Global South and India’s position as its leader will be strengthened.

The sword of food crisis
Imagine for a moment that if the export of wheat from Russia and Ukraine really stops due to war, then its annual supply to the countries of the Global South will decrease drastically. There will be a reduction of 19% in South Asia, 57% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 26% in South East Asia, and 39% in Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa. This will lead to a serious food crisis. Due to sanctions on Russia, the world’s major energy supplier country, there has already been a shock of sharp increase in prices. Although the governments of European countries can protect their citizens from these shocks, it is difficult for the economies of the Global South.

There is an opportunity and a custom too
India’s unique position as a friend of both East and West and its aspiration to emerge as a leader of the Global South in climate negotiations could make a possible formula for Russia-Ukraine peace possible. This summit is a golden opportunity for India to take a concrete step towards lasting peace in Eurasia and rebalance security relations with Europe.

Straight talk from Russia
Note that the Indian Prime Minister has publicly told President Vladimir Putin that “this is not a time for war”. In this context, India’s ability to call out Russia as a trusted partner makes it an important voice in the current environment. India has also participated in US efforts to assess and prevent the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in late 2022.

india’s interest
It is also in India’s strategic interest to restore peace in Europe as soon as possible. This war has put India in a difficult tightrope walk of maintaining a balance in its relations with Russia and the West. Peace talks led by the Indian Prime Minister will not only strengthen his/her personal credibility as a global leader, but India’s successful mediation will also have long-term benefits. As an emerging power on the global international stage, such a leadership role is the need of the hour for New Delhi.

(The author is a professor at King’s College, England)