Tuesday, February 18th, 2025

India Sri Lanka Relation: Despite the assurance of the new President, Sri Lanka may create tension, what if India does?


New Delhi: The landslide victory of Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his/her party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in Sri Lanka has signaled a major change in politics. The new President of Sri Lanka is not new to politics. he/she is very active in strengthening India-Sri Lanka relations. Following his/her visit to India in February, he/she praised India for supplying food and medicine to Sri Lanka in its economic crisis. he/she acknowledged how Delhi supported Colombo in difficult times. During the election campaign, he/she stressed that Sri Lanka’s land, sea and airspace would not be used against India’s security interests.

New government in Sri Lanka

Earlier, right-wing governments in Colombo made efforts to woo China in return for substantial investment in infrastructure. This became a noose for them. Most of them got trapped in the debt trap. The outcome was disastrous for Sri Lanka and the process seriously jeopardized India’s security interests. Now the question has become even more serious. This is because a Marxist-supporting party is in power in Sri Lanka. In such a situation, India has every reason to be apprehensive about its action. Even though President Dissanayake has given assurances to the contrary.

Sri Lanka’s new President Dissanayake’s party realizes India’s strength, forgets decades-old enmity and finds good in friendship

Leftist party JVP took command

It is believed that JVP gives shelter to groups within its party which are anti-Tamil. Any conflict between Tamil groups and Colombo could trigger pre-2009 agitation by pro-LTTE organisations, activists and some elements of DMK, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. It can be revived by those who are trying to take advantage of such issues to remain relevant in politics. This situation may create domestic security problems for the central government. President Dissanayake should exercise caution in dealing with sensitive issues affecting India’s security and strategic interests.

Challenges before the new President Dissanayake

The new government of Anura Kumar Dissanayake in Sri Lanka has a long list of problems. There are four issues facing this government that require immediate attention of President Dissanayake. This included economic reforms, domestic stability, foreign policy and reconciliation with the Tamil minority. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis stemmed from loans given by China and due to this the IMF had to intervene. India had to help. The new administration will have to balance economic revival with addressing long-standing ethnic and political issues.

How the situation worsened in Sri Lanka

The situation in Sri Lanka had become serious during 2022 due to the debt-ridden economy. People’s anger against the government came out on the streets, which increased the problems of common citizens. They had to stand in queues for daily needs and even life-saving medicines. There was a complete breakdown of the Constitution which led to the fall of the government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

That’s why the people changed the government

However the subsequent regime led by Ranil Wickremesinghe tried its best to restore stability and peace. But economic troubles and widespread anger over elitism in governance persisted. The elections that followed gave the public an opportunity to vent their anger and press the reset button and elect a government capable of arresting the economic decline.

China’s debt increased the crisis

While the Tamil issue has historically dominated the political narrative in Sri Lanka, the economy became a matter of serious concern in 2022 due to the Chinese debt trap. Beijing improved its relations with Colombo in the final stages of the civil war by supplying military hardware to the Sri Lankan army and opposing UN resolutions condemning the island nation, receiving commercial projects such as the Hambantota port in return.

Unable to repay the loan, Sri Lanka converted its share into equity. Under which Hambantota was handed over to China Port Holdings. As of 2017, Colombo was spending about 83 percent of its revenue on debt servicing. In this, interest payments will almost double from $2 billion to $4.2 billion by 2022.

IMF imposed conditions, then India supported

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to Sri Lanka’s rescue but imposed strict conditions, putting the Wickremesinghe government under public attack. During this crisis, Colombo got a big relief with a total assistance of 4 billion dollars from India. There is a consensus among all political parties regarding the timely assistance provided by India.

What does the new government of Sri Lanka mean for India?

The JVP, infamous for its involvement in two major rebellions in 1971 and 1987, is now part of Sri Lanka’s multi-party parliamentary democratic process. With parliamentary elections coming up in November, political rhetoric should be positive and less acrimonious. The general election may result in a fractured mandate, but this should not hamper the economic revival process in a presidential system.

Ideologies and differences among religious sects have taken a back seat in Sri Lanka due to an acute economic crisis that has affected both the rich and the poor. President Dissanayake can get the economy back on track by avoiding wasteful spending and staying away from the debt trap with ambitious white elephant projects.

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