India is stronger than China for mediation in Russia-Ukraine, know what is the big reason

Jayanta Kalita: There are no signs that the Ukraine war will end in the near future. This is because Kiev recently intruded into Russia’s Kursk region. After this Moscow carried out a series of retaliatory airstrikes. This also included an attack on a Ukrainian army training center. More than 50 people were killed and hundreds injured in this attack. Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin says he/she is still ready for peace talks with Ukraine. he/she has named India as one of the potential peace mediators. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 5, Putin said that the agreements not implemented at the March 2022 Istanbul talks could serve as the basis for future peace discussions.

Putin took the name of India

Putin said, “Are we ready to negotiate with them (Ukraine)? We have never refused to do so, but not on the basis of some short-term demands, but on the basis of the documents that were agreed upon and in fact started in Istanbul.” Putin further said that he/she is constantly in touch with India, China and Brazil regarding the Ukraine war. he/she said that these countries are making sincere efforts to resolve the military conflict that has been going on for more than two years. his/her remarks came days after the conclusion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine. There is speculation that New Delhi can help start a new dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.

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What are the experts saying

Global affairs experts say that India has an edge over China in terms of establishing peace. This is because New Delhi is a relatively ‘fair player’ compared to Beijing. Shari Malhotra, Associate Fellow for Europe at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), strongly believes that India has better chances than China in terms of mediating or establishing peace on the Ukraine war. he/she said that this is because India is a relatively fair player compared to China. India signed a no-limit partnership with Russia in February 2022, just before Moscow started the war. China is also assisting Russia’s war efforts by supplying dual-use items.

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India, on the other hand, has close ties with both Russia and the West, which is assisting Ukraine’s war efforts. Therefore, it can play the role of a bridge power. Malhotra says that comparatively, China’s currently fractured relations with Western countries – strategic rivalry with the United States, and the EU’s attempt to re-arrange its relations with China make it a less reliable mediator. She also highlights India’s consistent position on the war as it is calling for dialogue and diplomacy, advocating for peace. India is urging countries to return to the negotiating table.

Effective mediation, she concludes, is only possible if both sides genuinely want it and are committed to a peace initiative, which, at the current juncture of the conflict, appears unlikely. Nevertheless, India can continue to play an active role at the margins and reiterate its willingness to play the role of a peace-maker, she added.

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How does India have an edge over China?

At the same time, India has made it clear that it does not tolerate violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty, Malhotra said. Therefore, if India attempts to mediate, it will be taken more seriously than China based on India’s overall stance on the war. However, she points out that the time is not right for mediation or negotiations as both sides have not yet reached a point of exhaustion in the war. Malhotra stressed that Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region has changed the situation. The approaching US elections and their results can also play a major role in changing the dynamics and trajectory of this war.

Will Putin prefer India over China?

In addition, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia Daily that India can help establish a dialogue on Ukraine. Underlining the ‘highly constructive, even friendly relations’ between Modi and Putin, he/she said that the Indian Prime Minister ‘can play a leading role in obtaining direct information from the participants in this conflict’. One reason for this is that he/she communicates freely with Putin, Zelensky and the Americans. Prime Minister Modi visited Moscow in July this year. During that time he/she told Putin that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. This was followed by a visit to Kiev in August. During this visit he/she reiterated India’s willingness to contribute in all possible ways to facilitate an early return to peace. On his/her return, Modi spoke to Putin. he/she conveyed India’s readiness to actively support any political or diplomatic solution.

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Modi has already asked Ukraine for mediation

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Prime Minister Modi’s rapprochement with Putin, his/her Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky and the US gives India a great opportunity to exert its weight in world affairs, to use its influence. This will inspire the Americans and the Ukrainians to use more political will and move forward on the path of a peaceful solution. Peskov also said that there are no ‘specific plans’ for Modi’s mediation on this issue. The Kremlin spokesman said that at the moment they are hardly present, because we do not see any preconditions for talks right now. Modi visited Ukraine on 23 August. There he/she told Zelensky that both Ukraine and Russia should sit together without wasting time to end the war. India is ready to play an ‘active role’ to restore peace in the region.

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Is Modi’s popularity an important factor?

With an approval rating of 78% in India, Modi emerged as the world’s most popular political leader earlier this year, according to a survey report released by US business intelligence company Morning Consult. he/she overtook outgoing US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, whose approval ratings in their respective countries were 37% and 23%. PM Modi has returned to power for the third time.

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In March, a CNN report said that Modi played a key role in preventing a nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022. While Russia denied this, there was no confirmation or denial from the Indian side. Moreover, Modi’s friendship with the Russian President is known around the world. At an event in Moscow in June 2023, Putin called PM Modi a ‘big friend’ of Russia. he/she said that his/her ‘Make in India’ campaign has had a ‘really impressive impact’ on the country’s economy.

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Modi was one of the few international leaders who congratulated Putin on his/her re-election in March this year, after he/she won a landslide victory in a highly uneven election, further consolidating his/her already strong grip on power. Modi had said he/she and Putin agreed to work together to further deepen and expand the India-Russia special and privileged strategic partnership in the years to come. While discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Modi reiterated India’s consistent position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward, a statement from the Ministry of External Affairs had said.

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During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan last year, Prime Minister Modi had told Putin that the 21st century is not the ‘age of war’. Moreover, India has abstained from Ukraine-related resolutions and votes at the United Nations more than half a dozen times.

What is India’s stand?

India has consistently said that it will not initiate any peace process on its own. India will mediate only if it is asked to do so. New Delhi has also stressed that lasting peace is possible only when both sides are involved in any initiative. However, for India to play any role, it is important that Zelensky also agrees. During Modi’s visit, he/she had suggested that India could consider hosting the next peace summit, but then he/she effectively excluded India from it as he/she insisted that only a country that had endorsed the joint communiqué at the first summit could host. India did not participate in the first summit, held in Switzerland in June, as Russia was not invited.