In Modi 3.0, the command of the Foreign Ministry is again in the hands of Jaishankar, how will he/she deal with the challenges of Indian diplomacy?

New Delhi: In Modi 2.0, many dimensions of India’s foreign policy were seen as different. From the success of bringing both the Western and Russian blocks on one platform in the world divided by the Ukraine war during the presidency of the G-20 to the effort to present itself as the voice of the Global South. However, during this time, the allegations made by Canada and the comments of the US on the issue of religious freedom became a challenge and made the path of Indian diplomacy challenging. In such a situation, the presence of changing world order and regional conflicts has only increased India’s challenges. ORF Fellow Kabir Taneja believes something similar, he/she says that ‘Jaishankar’s priorities start from those issues which he/she had left incomplete before the elections. The complexities of the ever-changing world are not decreasing, but are increasing. The nature of the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza has not changed. In such a situation, as he/she has been doing for the past years, he/she will try to protect India’s priorities, one of his/her major priorities will be that geopolitical events do not have a negative impact on the economy.’ In such a situation, it is believed that Jaishankar will continue to shape foreign policy on the India narrative and the agenda of the Global South.

However, some experts say that even if there is no change in the basic structure of foreign policy, some gross changes can be seen in diplomacy. Amitabh Singh, an expert on international affairs and a JNU professor, says that ‘In view of the Israel-Hamas conflict, after the 7 October attack last year, India’s stance on terrorism had a strong message, some changes can be seen in it. Along with this, it will now be difficult for India to take the kind of stance that right-wing governments take on conflicts around the world, although it was seen in the previous government on the issue of the Middle East. Along with this, there is a possibility of a decrease in the Modi-centric atmosphere in foreign forums, which was clearly visible last time.’

China’s aggression will remain a challenge

Experts believe that China’s aggression towards neighbouring countries will remain a challenge. One cannot ignore the fact that since last year, India has been continuously returning to the policy of Neighbourhood First, in which efforts are being made to improve relations with other countries including Nepal and Sri Lanka through economic aid and other efforts. But the policies of many neighbouring countries including Maldives are under the influence of China. In such a situation, Muizzu’s participation in the swearing-in ceremony is a positive sign, but it does not seem that he/she will step back from his/her basic policy of pro-China. On the other hand, Presidential elections are to be held in Sri Lanka this year, so Ranil Wickremesinghe is probably looking for support in terms of geopolitical equations. But despite this, India will have to work continuously on the foreign policy of its neighbours.

Focus on closeness of relations between America and India

Diplomacy with respect to China is such a pivot around which many dimensions of foreign policy are shaped. While on one hand the closeness between China and Russia will have to be found by deepening relations with Russia, on the other hand the challenge is also to maintain a balance with China. China’s insecurity will have to be strengthened further regarding the closeness of relations between America and India. Along with this, Indian strategists would like to keep a constant eye on the US presidential elections, because who will come to power there will decide what will be the closeness of relations between the two countries?