How much does Trump mean to India… Know what will be the impact on defence, trade, technology

New Delhi: Trump ‘Raj’ has started once again in America. Experts are expressing various expectations regarding what will be the impact on the relations between India and America after Donald Trump becomes President. According to experts, relations between India and America will deepen with Trump’s arrival. The concern of both the countries regarding China will bring them closer. This trend will remain the same as during the tenure of the last five American Presidents. QUAD will become stronger. India will have good relations in many departments of administration. Political and ideological coordination is also expected to be good. With this, trust between the two countries will increase in defence, intelligence and security matters. Possibilities of cooperation in technology are likely to increase.

India hopes to benefit from Trump’s arrival

Three things will be beneficial for India due to President Trump’s return to America. First, there are good relations between the leaders of the two countries. According to reports, there is a good conversation between PM Modi and Trump. According to Trump’s former NSA Robert O’Brien, Trump sees himself in Modi. This is because of his/her nationalism and his/her popularity among the public. Both the leaders will remember that America had supported India in Doklam, Balakot and Galwan. There is similarity in the nationalist ideologies of both the countries. The Indian government knows how to influence Trump.

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Tension may increase for China

Second, concerns about China connect the two countries. Strategic, defence, supply chain and economic cooperation is the result of this concern. In such a situation, the role of Quad will be very important. Trump takes pride in reviving this group. This is the reason why we want to give a strong message to China by organizing a meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington DC on Tuesday. There is also a possibility that Trump may maintain a strong but cautious stance on China as Joe Biden did. This is good news for Delhi because India can benefit if this happens.

Trump ‘Raj’ is lucky for India like this

And finally, India has been very fortunate in Trump’s selection of national security personnel. Senior to mid-level key officials in the department, including National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Principal Deputy NSA Alex Wong, are understood to have a positive view of India. This has a lot of impact. India needs to create a better economic environment in Washington, an environment that includes trade, outbound and inbound investment and technology.

Trump’s global stance will be monitored

Another important issue is Trump’s global stance. It is not what the US does or does not do with India that is the sole determinant of the relationship. This is what America does to the rest of the world. If America’s relations with Europe deteriorate, or serious doubts arise about America’s credibility in Europe, the task of persuading Europe to move away from China will suddenly become more difficult.

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If America moves towards a deal with China…

If the US decides to stop supporting public health and civil society initiatives in Africa, it only helps the region’s other big power, China. If the US is seen to be making a deal with China, its own allies in the Indo-Pacific will try to make a similar deal before Washington does so to secure their interests.

Ukraine-Russia will be affected

America is the world’s largest economy and militarily most powerful country. It is also the center of many international strategic alliances, economic and financial systems and many important institutions of the world. The arrival of Trump can also have a large-scale impact on the ongoing war in the Middle East and the system after the end of the Ukraine-Russia war.

Trump is considered ‘unpredictable’

Trump is considered unpredictable. In such a situation, it would be too early to say anything. However, a new direction can be seen in the trade relations between India and America under the Trump government, because the Trump administration emphasizes on the policy of ‘America First’, which India may have to face. The question is how India will handle it diplomatically.

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How much impact in South Asia

South Asia includes India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Maldives. India is a rapidly growing economy in South Asia. India has strengthened its position in these countries in the last few years. The way Trump has good relations with PM Modi, India’s position is likely to strengthen in his/her second term. This is because relations with America between Pakistan and Afghanistan have changed a lot.

Investment will increase in India-America

In the last few years, Indian companies have invested billions in America. The last CII report for 2023 shows that 160 Indian companies have invested $40 billion and created 425,000 jobs, which is two-thirds of US investments in India. While it is a topic of discussion at select policy gatherings, the story remains largely untold because of the almost invisible Indian public diplomacy in the US and its failure to communicate with the broader political and public sphere.

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What will be the impact on ‘Make in India’?

Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy approach may increase strategic uncertainty. Questions will be raised on Trump’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific, but at the same time the pressure on India to share the burden will also increase. Defense and technology ties will depend on what India can do for the US. There may be tension in economic relations in both the trade and investment sectors. India will have to explain that ‘Make in India’ and ‘Made in America’ are not against each other. Trump’s decisions on energy, climate, crypto, visa and relations with Europe will also have indirect impacts on India. These can be both good and bad.