Has Israel trapped India by vowing to wipe out Hezbollah? Understand the Iran-America connection

After Hamas in Palestine, now focus is on Hezbollah in Lebanon

In fact, the Israeli military believes it has been able to significantly reduce Hamas’ capabilities in Gaza. It has destroyed their missile and rocket factories, bombed the tunnels where they stored weapons and ammunition, killed about 15,000 Hamas fighters and eliminated its political chief Ismail Haniyeh and military commander Mohammed Deif.

Meanwhile, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar remains active in Gaza, but Israel is confident the group no longer has the capability to strike back. Therefore, it believes it is time to focus more significantly on Hezbollah, its far more powerful adversary in the north. The first sign of this intention came on July 30, when a top Hezbollah commander, Fouad Shukr, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Israel said he/she was the mastermind of a rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights three days earlier that killed 12 children and teenagers.

Hezbollah has been a source of tension ever since Hamas attacked

On October 7 last year, Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing about 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 hostages. After this, Israel retaliated on a large scale, in which more than 41 thousand Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far. After 11 months of air strikes and ground operations, about 100 hostages are in the custody of Hamas.

During this entire period, Hezbollah has engaged Israel by firing shells and rockets along Israel’s northern border. According to official Israeli government figures, this has displaced 63,439 Israelis from their homes near the border. It is estimated that about 95,000 Lebanese have also been displaced by Israeli rocket and missile attacks in southern Lebanon.

Now the Israeli campaign in the north

A day before the pager explosion in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told US special envoy Amos Hochstein that ‘military action is the only way to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes’. After walkie-talkies and other communications equipment exploded on Wednesday, Galant announced to Israeli Air Force personnel that ‘the center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources and energy to the north.’

Hezbollah attacks near the northern border have killed 26 Israeli civilians and 20 soldiers since the war in Gaza began. More than 450 Hezbollah members and more than 100 civilians have been killed in Israeli shelling in Lebanon in the past 11 months. “I believe we are at the beginning of a new phase in this war, and we need to keep an eye on the situation. We will need continuity over time. This war requires a lot of courage, determination and perseverance,” Gallant said at Ramat David air base in northern Israel.

Hezbollah chief declares – we will definitely get an answer

Hezbollah, on the other hand, is waiting for the right moment. Nasrallah on Thursday vowed to deliver “just punishment” in response to the attacks and promised to ensure that evacuated Israelis could not return to their homes. Will Israel carry out ground operations against Lebanon following this week’s attacks? UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday, “There is a serious risk of a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Lebanon, and everything must be done to avoid that.”

Several scenarios are possible over the next few weeks. Iran is seen as a pragmatic opponent, which will be determined to avenge the humiliation but will not rush to do so. There could be a repeat of the April attack when Iran launched a wave of air strikes on targets in Israel, although with limited effect. Tehran could coordinate with its allies in the so-called axis of resistance Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis to launch attacks on Israel. It could also target Israeli officials in third countries, perhaps after waiting for some time.

Israel can destroy Lebanon

Israel, on the other hand, could launch airstrikes against not only Hezbollah but also the Lebanese state apparatus. It could lead a limited ground incursion into Lebanon, target Hezbollah in villages and tunnels, destroy weapons and missile depots and try to create some sort of buffer zone in southern Lebanon. On Thursday, Israeli supersonic fighter jets flew over Beirut while Nasrallah was speaking.