Has BJP taken full advantage of Hindutva in the North? Extremely populist promises are becoming difficult for the saffron party in the 2024 elections

New Delhi : In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP is leaving no stone unturned to come to power for the third time. The election process will end after the 7th phase of voting on June 1. In such a situation, everyone’s eyes are now fixed on June 4. Before this, BJP and PM Modi have raised the issue of Muslim appeasement and Hindutva for victory. The opposition alleges that BJP is doing all this to distract the public from the real issues in view of its defeat. At the same time, there is also a section of election pundits and political analysts who are talking about a decrease in BJP’s seats. As we know that the Hindi belt or Hindi heartland is a central factor in shaping political power in our country. There are 245 Lok Sabha seats in North India. Excluding Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, the Hindi belt has 226 seats.

The Hindi belt had taught Indira a lesson

According to an article by noted political scientist Suhas Palshikar in the Indian Express, in 1967 the entire Hindi Belt registered its disillusionment with the Congress. This shook the Congress dispensation, but more than that, it ushered in a new politics both within and outside the Congress. In 1977, the Hindi Belt contributed to the defeat of Indira Gandhi’s party and opened the way for a unification of political forces. This unification manifested itself politically as opposition to the Congress. That argument was further extended in 1989 when the Congress was ousted more decisively once again. At all these three points in time, the Hindi Belt behaved more or less in a similar fashion. The fourth moment was the mid-nineties, when the BJP made significant gains in the region in three successive elections. This marked the consolidation of Hindutva politics in the Hindi Belt. It was not simply a case of the BJP replacing the Congress in the region. It was also a case of pre-existing socio-cultural sensibilities transforming themselves into more radical expressions and the region being easily captured by Hindutva politics. The rise of the BJP in the 1990s and its resurgence in 2014 owes itself to the party’s impressive performance here. The BJP won 178 seats in the Hindi Belt in 2019. The BJP’s vote share in all the remaining Hindi Belt states in 2019 was between 50 and 60 per cent. This translates into a massive Hindu vote, according to available data.

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Now BJP cannot increase its support

Muslims would not have voted for the BJP in any significant proportion, according to the article. In other words, the Hindu consolidation that the BJP aims for has been almost completely achieved in this belt. This is often interpreted as the strength of the BJP but it also means that the party reaches a point where it cannot add any more to its support. Secondly, the party has won almost all the seats in many of these states. However, in UP, it still came up short – with just over 60 seats out of 80. In other states of the region, even if the BJP repeats its 2019 performance, it will not help the party increase its strength. Thus, it is very important for the BJP to win more seats in UP to improve its performance in 2019. It cannot win more seats in Bihar, as it is again in alliance with state-level parties. So it has had to share seats with them.

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BJP’s troubles are increasing

The article mentions that though Modi’s popularity and the allure of Hindutva still persist, on the other hand, a decade of power and overt populist promises has left the BJP in a quandary. In this decade and overall, Hindutva has offered its followers symbolic euphoria, mostly unconnected with life conditions. Systematic marginalisation of the imagined enemy. Construction of the Ram temple and limited accommodation of backward castes. Promises of national reconstruction and material advancement as a result of Hindu supremacy have remained distant dreams. A Lokniti pre-poll survey in late March found that 60 per cent of voters in the region mentioned inflation and unemployment as issues that would determine their vote. This proportion was higher than in the south or the east. This brings us to the question: will the Hindi heartland remain charmed by Hindutva despite economic issues and Hindutva rhetoric reaching a peak? Many have commented on ‘Modi fatigue’ but is it possible that there will be ‘Hindutva fatigue’ too? This does not mean that the Hindi belt will suddenly turn away from Hindutva. But the question we must ponder is whether voters, despite their love affair with Hindutva, will begin to exercise agency, assess factors such as performance and look for alternatives?

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The process of change will be difficult

Suhas Palshikar believes that this process, if it begins, will not be limited to any one state in the Hindi belt. As mentioned above, despite state specificities, there appears to be a somewhat similar trend across the region. This is where the challenge lies for the BJP. If there is Hindutva fatigue, it will manifest at varying degrees across the region. If the BJP loses the extra leverage it has gained since 2014 in the region, it could result in the doors of electoral competition sliding. When the campaign began, the competition appeared to be in favour of the incumbent. As it draws to a close, the central question is whether the North, which has periodically distanced itself from major power holders, will upset the BJP, start taking notice of it or hold on to the emotional appeal of Hindutva for some time.