Haryana’s defeat will weaken Congress’ position in INDIA block, impact on upcoming elections.

Author: Asim Ali
The results of Haryana Assembly elections have proved to be a big failure for Congress. The party has lost the momentum it had gained during the Lok Sabha elections. Important assembly elections are to be held in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi in the coming days. The party has put itself in a weak position before this. Congress had high expectations in Haryana. But let us try to understand where his/her strategy fell short and what it means for the central leadership.

trust hooda
In a way, Congress had handed over the command of this election to Bhupendra Hooda faction. Although the party did not announce the candidate for the post of Chief Minister, it was clear that the possible face would be Bhupendra Singh Hooda. This was also expected because the Hooda faction had given tickets to its close ones on 72 out of 90 seats. This extent of control by any one group in Haryana Congress is a completely new thing. Going back in time, in the 1980s the state unit of the party was divided into Bhajanlal and Bansilal factions. From the 1990s, competition began between the factions of Bhajan Lal and Bhupendra Singh Hooda. Since the mid-2000s, other leaders emerged in the state who challenged the strong Hooda faction.

big names out
The Hooda family has become stronger again in the last five years. he/she either expelled his/her rivals from the party or eliminated their influence. For example, we can take the names of Kuldeep Bishnoi, Ashok Tanwar and Kiran Chaudhary, who left the Congress. However, Tanwar had returned just before the elections. Similarly, the influence of senior leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala declined.

advantage of factionalism
The advantage of competition between different factions in Congress is that it helps the party to solve the complex equations of different castes and regions. Also, its image is created as a team under which all kinds of people are working. In other words, factional conflict helps in bringing balance, for example by bringing OBC and Dalit leaders against the influence of Jat leaders.

bad strategy
This time there were some weaknesses in Congress’s strategy, due to which it had to suffer losses. One mistake in this was that by showing Hooda as the chief ministerial candidate and ignoring the other leaders, BJP got the opportunity to push the narrative of Jat versus non-Jat. It must be remembered that Jats constitute only 19% of the population in the state. By showing the fear of Jat dominance, BJP united its main vote bank, upper castes and OBCs. Besides, he/she also secured a large number of Dalit votes.

dalits stay away
The Dalit vote bank in Haryana is about 21% of the total population, but Congress seems not to have been able to take advantage of it. The INLD-BSP alliance getting 6% vote share shows that a large section of Dalits were staying away from the Congress campaign. Barring the last phase, Kumari Selja remained missing from the rest of the election campaign. This also made it difficult to mobilize Dalits in favor of Congress.

challenge of rebels

Rebels and independent candidates posed a lot of challenges in the elections and the Congress strategy failed to face it. 36 rebel Congress leaders were standing in the elections. At the same time, 33 BJP leaders adopted a rebellious stance. The important thing is how the party handled these rebels. This kind of election management becomes important in a state like Haryana, where the victory margin is very small.

vote share
The total vote share of both the parties was almost equal, around 40%. But, in terms of average vote share, BJP got a huge lead over Congress. Here BJP’s data was 45% and Congress’s 40% (based on data till late Tuesday evening). Average vote share means the vote share received by a party in a particular constituency. Congress lost on many hard-fought seats. The reason for this may have been the independents who secured more than 10% vote share or the INLD-BSP alliance.

impact on leadership
This defeat has exposed the problem of a weak high command, which succumbs to the pressure of aging leaders. Hooda was also involved in the G23 rebellion. Sonia Gandhi bowed to his/her demands and gave him/her complete control over party related matters in Haryana. A similar case happened in Rajasthan, where Ashok Gehlot led a successful rebellion. Then there is also the example of Madhya Pradesh. There the old leader Kamal Nath stopped the young leaders from emerging. Congress has faced a shameful defeat in all these states.

weak in alliance
The Gandhi family cannot run away from the responsibility of this failure. Except for the small state of Himachal Pradesh, in the last six years the Congress Party has not been able to defeat the BJP in a direct contest in any state north of Vindhyachal. This shows that there is a serious lack of leadership. Next year, Congress’s position will be weak considering the coordination of seats with NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, JMM in Jharkhand, AAP in Delhi and RJD in Bihar. This means that instead of becoming a strong wall of the INDIA block, Congress will again have to bow before the regional parties and work.