In these attacks, the BLA has targeted police stations and taken over major highways. The BLA has also targeted Punjabi and Sindhi migrant workers, whom the Baloch believe are exploiting Balochistan’s resources.
New dimensions?
Former Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria explains, ‘Targeting Punjabi workers is a new ethnic dimension. This shows that Baloch radicals mainly want to provoke and challenge the Punjabi army.’
Nearly half of those killed in the recent attacks were Punjabi workers. The Baloch are angry about the influx of Punjabis. They believe that Punjabis are taking advantage of economic opportunities in Balochistan, while the Baloch are being pushed back.
A common Baloch citizen believes that he/she has the first right over the natural resources of Balochistan. he/she considers himself a victim of the discriminatory policies of the federal government. For him/her, Punjabi workers are a symbol of the oppression of the Pakistan government.
Bisaria says, “The recent developments are a major security lapse and possibly a coming together of the Afghan/Pashtun and Baloch insurgencies. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the BLA are, if not colluding, then at least coordinating.”
Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of providing financial aid to separatists and Iran of providing them safe haven. India has officially rejected these allegations as baseless. India says Pakistan should introspect on its support to terrorism. It should look in the mirror.
The TTP has been attacking Pakistan in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The Pakistani army has been concerned about the growing alliance between Baloch separatists and the TTP in Balochistan for the past few years. Balochistan also has a significant Pashtun population.
The TTP has supported attacks by Baloch separatists. The TTP has accused the Pakistani army of committing genocide in Balochistan. The TTP says that groups like the BLA and the TTP have the same enemy. The BLA has been declared a terrorist group by both the US and Britain.
The China Angle
China has condemned the attacks and said it is ready to enhance counter-terrorism and security cooperation with Pakistan to maintain regional peace and security. Pakistan hopes to turn resource-rich Balochistan into an economic and energy hub. For this, several projects have been started on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) at a cost of $ 60 billion.
However, the CPEC projects have faced violent insurgency. The BLA and other insurgent groups have targeted CPEC installations, Chinese engineers and workers. They accuse China of arming Pakistan against Baloch separatists and exploiting the province’s natural resources in collusion with Islamabad.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in his/her reaction to the recent attacks has accused the separatists of working to sabotage the CPEC. The BLA is trying to show its strength and capability in the form of multiple attacks across the province. In such a situation, CPEC, which also includes the Gwadar port, will remain vulnerable to the threat of violence.
What can Pakistan do?
Balochistan covers more than 40% of Pakistan’s land area but has a mere 6% population. Balochistan has a long history of political unrest. Since independence, there has been an ongoing insurgency demanding a separate Baloch state. Economic oppression, anti-Punjabi sentiment, military disappearances of Baloch people, fake encounters and rejection of the idea of Baloch nationalism have fueled the insurgency.
Pakistan must find a way to address Baloch discontent politically, rather than subjugate the local population. This is vital to its stability. It is in its interest to do so. To begin with, it must address their grievances, especially the exploitation of resources which remains a sensitive issue.
The perception among locals that they are being denied the benefits of the discovery of Balochistan’s substantial mineral resources has fueled the insurgency.
While the military is currently strong enough to prevent any potential disintegration of Pakistan, it should encourage the federal government to hold a meaningful dialogue with Baloch nationalists to reduce violence. Only through dialogue can we find ways to find a long-term solution.
The Baloch people, with their distinct identity, are traditionally seen as secular and it is in Pakistan’s interest to ensure that they do not work with groups like the TTP which are motivated by extremist religious ideology.
Pakistan must also find a way to include civil rights groups like the Baloch Yakzahti Committee who wish to peacefully raise issues such as enforced disappearances and fake encounters.
Pakistan will continue to accuse India of funding the BLA. In the past, it has justified its crackdown on separatists by talking about their alleged links with the ‘enemy’.
Impact on India?
India will certainly keep a close watch on how the Pakistani army reacts to the surge in attacks by Baloch separatists. Assembly elections are underway in Jammu and Kashmir and India will thwart any attempt to disrupt them. There have been recent terrorist attacks in Jammu, following which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned Pakistan not to use terrorism or proxy war against India.
India believes that Pakistan should introspect why attacks have increased in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan since the Afghan Taliban returned to Kabul? Pakistan was considering the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan as strategically beneficial for itself.