Explained: Exit polls will tell whether BJP will form the government or not, know how accurate they are

New Delhi: The mega event of Lok Sabha elections, 2024 is now coming to an end. Everyone is waiting for June 4, when the Election Commission will announce the results after the counting of votes. Everyone is confused as to whose government will be formed? Will the BJP be able to form the government for the third time in a row or will the All India Alliance win this time? But, before that, everyone is also waiting for the exit polls, because these exit polls give a new direction to the common man’s estimates and debates. Let us know what these exit polls are, how accurate their estimates are and what has been the history of their estimates in the previous Lok Sabha elections.

What are exit polls, how are they different from opinion polls?

This time general elections were held for the 18th Lok Sabha. These elections will end on 1st June at 6 pm. Exit polls are the collection of information from voters who have already voted about their favorite candidates or parties. This helps in understanding the political mood of the country after the elections. The estimates of exit polls before the election results affect the market. The reason behind asking voters is that only voters can accurately tell whose government is being formed in the country. The government never conducts any exit polls. Only private agencies conduct this. On the other hand, opinion polls are conducted before the elections and people’s opinion is known. This is just an attempt to know the electoral trend of the voters.

Exit polls were conducted for the first time during Nehru’s era

Exit polls were first conducted in India in 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted a survey for the second Lok Sabha elections in the country. At that time, Jawaharlal Nehru was the Prime Minister. The first major media survey was conducted in the 1980s by election studies expert Pranav Roy along with David Butler. Later, both of them published a book called The Compendium of Indian Elections. In 1996, the government TV channel Doordarshan asked the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls in India. Since then, such opinion surveys are conducted regularly, in which many organizations and private TV channels also participate.

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Who conducts exit polls and why are they conducted?

When voting ends at the last booth of Lok Sabha elections, exit polls are released 30 minutes after that. Many organizations and private channels conduct these opinion surveys together. In this, voters are asked which party or candidate they have voted for. The purpose of exit polls is to provide information about the trends of the elections. Actually, exit polls reflect the sentiments of the common man.

What are the rules and regulations regarding exit polls

According to Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, no person can conduct any kind of exit poll during the election nor can publish it through print, electronic media or other means. During this period, the Election Commission will take cognizance of any exit poll. Exit polls can come only after 30 minutes of the end of voting. That is, voting will be held till 6 pm on June 1, after which exit poll estimates will start coming at 6:30 pm.

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Violating the rules can lead to 2 years imprisonment

If a person violates section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, he/she can be punished with a jail term of up to 2 years or a fine or both. The results of this Lok Sabha election, which lasted for 44 days, are to be counted on June 4. According to Sanjay Kumar of CSDS, exit polls have been continuously being improved since 1957. The sample size has also been increased considerably. About 30 thousand samples are collected at the national level. That is, voters are asked who they have voted for. A single polling strategy cannot be adopted for every polling group. The samples or methods of every polling station can be different.

Are exit polls banned in India

There is no ban on exit polls in India. But, according to the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission has made some rules regarding its publication or broadcast. According to the Commission, exit polls cannot be published during or before voting, as it may influence voters. Let us understand how exit polls are conducted from the graphic given below.

How accurate are these exit polls

Sanjay Kumar of CSDS says that the popularity of exit polls has increased a lot in recent years. According to the CSDS report, the exit polls conducted after the 1998 Lok Sabha elections were almost accurate. However, in the 1999 elections, there was an over-estimate. No one had predicted the victory of BJP in the elections. But after the results came, the BJP-led NDA coalition government was formed at the center.

In 2004, the exit polls were declared as exit polls

Sanjay Kumar says that the results of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections surprised all election pundits. According to the CSDS report, the Congress-led coalition was completely undermined at that time. It was said at that time that the BJP-led coalition, i.e. NDA, was returning to power. However, after the election results, Congress formed the government. The 2004 election was such that it made the exit polls go out of hand.

Exit polls were not successful even in 2009

Before the results of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, all the exit polls were not predicting the Congress government. When the results came, the exit polls fell flat on their face. The Congress-led UPA coalition formed the government again. The UPA had won 262 seats in the 2009 elections as compared to 222 seats in 2004.

In 2014 too, BJP won more than expected

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, election pundits had predicted that the NDA would win 257 to 340 seats. But the NDA surprised everyone by winning 336 seats. In some exit polls, the Congress government was seen forming. But that time, the country’s oldest party was reduced to just 44 seats.

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In 2019 too, the calculations of the election pundits were shaken

Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, election pundits failed to make accurate predictions. Most exit polls had predicted that the NDA would win around 285 seats. But when the results came, it was far beyond the estimates. The NDA won 353 seats. The BJP alone won 303 seats. On the other hand, the Congress got only 52 seats.

Why the history of 5 times has not been good for exit polls

Exit polls have not been accurate in the five Lok Sabha elections from 1999 to 2019. Experts argue that even after casting their vote, voters do not want to tell their vote to anyone soon and they give vague answers. Some voters even deliberately give wrong answers. Apart from this, voters are also under pressure from local leaders, due to which they avoid giving correct information.