Exit poll exposed! Know when the predictions differed from the election results

New Delhi: With the end of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, exit poll estimates have come out. However, it is natural to question how much these exit polls should be trusted, especially when their projections have been proven wrong on several occasions in the last five years. Although exit polling agencies claim that they prepare their forecasts based on the mood of the voters, a closer look at the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections reveals a different picture. Exit polls often predict election results. They are not able to make correct estimates due to which their credibility is now being questioned. The news agency has analyzed some past exit polls. Let’s take a look at when exit polls have been proved wrong.

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2014 Lok Sabha elections

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led NDA won with an overwhelming majority. Many exit polls including Axis My India, Chanakya could not predict this. Although the exit polls had definitely shown that NDA was coming to power, they failed to predict such a huge victory. On an average, eight exit polls had predicted NDA to get 283 seats and UPA to get 105 seats, while the results showed NDA getting 336 seats. At the same time, BJP got 282 seats, UPA got 60 seats and Congress got 44 seats. This shows that the exit polls could not predict the scale of victory.

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2019 Lok Sabha elections

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it was estimated that NDA would get 306 seats and UPA would get 120 seats. But, when the actual results came, the exit polls were proved wrong. NDA won 353 seats and BJP alone won 303 seats. UPA got 93 seats and Congress got only 52 seats. Once again the exit polls failed to gauge the mood of the voters. Voters gave more votes to NDA than expected.

2024 Lok Sabha elections

Most exit polls had predicted a bumper victory for the BJP-led ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. It was also estimated that BJP on its own would win more seats than the majority figure in which NDA was estimated to get 361 to 401 seats. However, the exit poll results proved wrong. NDA got 293 seats and BJP got 240 seats.

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India Today-Axis My India had predicted NDA to get 361-401 seats. News 24-Today’s Chanakya had predicted that NDA will get 400 seats. ABP News-C Voter had predicted NDA to get 353-383 seats, Republic Bharat-P Mark had predicted NDA to get 359 seats. This was a major mistake in the exit poll estimates. Unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to even get a majority on its own and its tally dropped from 63 to 240 out of 303 seats since 2019.

Failed in assembly elections also

Exit poll predictions proved wrong not only in the Lok Sabha elections but also in many assembly elections. In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, exit polls had predicted that BJP would get 61 seats while some exit polls had also predicted it to win 75-80 seats. However, the results were completely different from the exit polls. BJP won 40 seats. Whereas Congress was successful in winning 31 seats. Which was contrary to the exit poll’s prediction of BJP’s clear majority. C Voter had also predicted that BJP would win 72 seats, which proved wrong.

Chhattisgarh: Congress’s estimate, BJP’s government

Similarly, exit polls had predicted a tough contest between Congress and BJP in the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections in 2023. In the exit poll, there was a claim of forming the Congress government again in the state. But when the election results came, BJP returned to power. Once again the exit polls proved completely wrong. BJP formed the government by winning 54 out of 90 assembly seats.

Wrong guess from MP to Bengal

BJP was predicted to get majority in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections of 2023, in which the party was estimated to get 140 to 162 seats. BJP formed the government for the fifth consecutive time in the state by winning 163 out of 230 assembly seats.

In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, many exit polls had predicted BJP to win more seats out of 294 assembly seats. But Trinamool Congress performed brilliantly in the elections and formed the government for the third consecutive time by winning 215 seats. At the same time, BJP won only 77 seats.

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