Every Indian will be crushed in the Israel-Iran war, how many days of diesel-petrol reserves do we have left?

New Delhi: If geo-political tension increases in the Middle East, will India face an oil crisis? India has enough oil reserves for 12 days’ worth of expenses, with additional supplies at refineries that can sustain the country for about 18 days. However, Israel and Iran are being very cautious even by attacking each other. In such a situation, it does not seem that a situation like oil crisis can arise. This is what Ranjan Mathai, former Foreign Secretary of the country and Ambassador to Israel, has to say. he/she said any disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz for more than 30 days could have a significant impact on the global economy and Indian markets. But Israel’s strategy in the war against Iran is changing. Earlier they were trying to cause maximum damage to the enemy, but now they want to avoid direct confrontation.

Concerns will deepen if war spreads in the Gulf

Organized under the aegis of Synergia Foundation on Monday, ‘Middle East Conundrum: Will the Iran-Israel war escalate further?’ Mathai said this during a conversation on the topic ‘The Middle East Quagmire: Will the Iran-Israel War Spiral Further?’ he/she said that it is difficult to predict what the future of the war between the two countries will be, but it seems that both sides are trying to step back. But what if the situation worsens in future? ‘There are concerns that if the war spreads to the Gulf, it could affect the eight million expatriates living there,’ says Mathai.

Right now there is wrestling between Israel and Iran.

In response to Iran’s nearly 200 ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 26, Israel launched direct attacks on military targets in Tehran, Ilam and the western provinces of Khuzestan. But, Israel did not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. “Although Israel has demonstrated that it has the capability to launch lethal and precise strikes against Tehran, it appears to have deliberately avoided targeting Iran’s oil fields and nuclear facilities because that could lead to war and conflict,” Mathai said. could increase and worldwide oil prices could rise. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s reaction to Israel’s targeted air strikes was also restrained.

Israel and Iran are making rapid progress

Khamenei advised neither to exaggerate nor to underestimate Israel’s attacks, while avoiding direct calls for retaliation. Iran vowed to respond to Israel’s attacks on Sunday, but said it did not want a widespread war. Mathai said, ‘Iran needs time (to retaliate). Its economy and internal unity are weakening due to long-standing US sanctions. There are factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and divisions within the Iranian ruling establishment.

On the other hand, Israel has the military and technological capability (to attack Iran), but it needs America’s support. Its economic vulnerability due to the war has also become visible. Israel was spending four to five percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in 2022. Its defense spending has doubled since then. In 2024, it should be about nine percent of its GDP.

If something goes wrong, India will be the first victim!

On the global impact of a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, Mathai said, ‘If there is any disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz, the first victim will be India and other global oil markets.’ The 21-mile-wide waterway, located off Iran’s southern coast, is the world’s most important oil transit route, carrying about one-fifth of global oil trade each day. Mathai said, ‘Iran is facing economic challenges and weakening internal unity. “It aims to achieve some relief by easing sanctions, restoring normal trade and reviving its oil exports.” On the other hand, Israel’s weaknesses are also clearly visible.

Mathai said, ‘Although Israel has formidable military and technological capabilities, its weaknesses are also visible. It currently needs US assistance and therefore must rely on maintaining a solid channel of communication with decision-making officials in Washington. he/she said Israel needs to maintain its dialogue channels with the US, which is its biggest ally and arms supplier.

“The bulk of the missiles for Israel’s missile defense come from the United States as Israel’s industry struggles to replace its rapidly depleting stock,” Mathai said. he/she said another important consequence of the war has been ‘brain drain’ as many young Israelis are moving to America. The rift is also growing between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant as the former’s cabinet ministers have called for the latter’s removal.’

Mathai said renewed efforts were being made by CIA Director William Burns, Mossad chief David Barnia and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed al-Thani for an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)-Hezbollah ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Are. The resolution ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, in which the Council called for a permanent ceasefire based on the creation of a buffer zone.

The risk remains: Mathai

Despite the reduction in the severity of attacks between the two countries, the former Foreign Secretary believes that the risk still remains, which could lead to a major catastrophe in the world. “The first target is likely to be the global oil market, and the countries that stand to lose the most from the collapse of oil trade are China, India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, while the US does not need to worry too much,” he/she said.

The US plays an important role in keeping markets from destabilizing, Mathai said, adding that Russia once had that capability. “But the two-year war in Ukraine has reduced its military capabilities, which has also reduced its influence in West Asia,” he/she said. Discussing India’s role, Mathai said the country has handled the conflict well while maintaining its traditional approach. “One legitimate complaint is that we did not do enough to raise our voice when Palestinians were attacked,” he/she said. he/she said there is a strong ideological feeling within the government that India needs to support Israel more. Meanwhile, Iran is trying to gain time.