Monday, February 17th, 2025

Dragon already has its eyes on neighboring countries… Former Indian Ambassador told how America-China relations will be after Trump’s arrival

New Delhi: Donald Trump is about to take oath as President in America, due to which there are fears of upheaval in the equations of the entire world. NBT’s Rahul Pandey spoke to Ashok Kant, former Indian Ambassador to China, about what scenario could emerge this year regarding the relations between America-China, Russia-Ukraine, India-China and America-India. Here are important excerpts from the conversation:Question: How far do you see the tension between America and China going after Trump’s arrival?
answer:
There is a big strategic competition between America and China and this is the biggest indicator of today’s geopolitical situation. This competition escalated during Trump’s first presidency, especially in 2018, when he/she began imposing heavy tariffs on goods coming from China. Then in 2020, President Donald Trump blamed China for Covid, even calling Covid ‘China virus’. This spoiled the relationship very much. When President Joe Biden came to power, he/she did not change much of Donald Trump’s policy.

America considers China as its biggest strategic challenge. This is clearly visible in the US government documents National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy released in October 2022. Similarly, China also believes that America wants to stop and suppress it and slow down its progress. China has never hidden that it wants to become the most influential country in the world. I think this is the fundamental difference between America and China. Both countries want to become the most powerful in the world. This contest will continue even after the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term.

Question: And what impact can this have on India?
answer:
You know, we don’t look at our relations with China or the United States from the perspective of our relations with third countries. But whatever Trump does with China, it will naturally have ramifications everywhere. There will be some impact on us too. But we are confident that India-US relations will remain stable. External Affairs Minister Dr. Jaishankar has also publicly said that there is a strategic convergence between India and America. There are many reasons why the two countries are working together and those factors will remain unchanged even when Donald Trump takes over as President. However there may be areas of problematic differences. For example, you know they have also imposed tariffs on imports from India. Those issues have to be resolved.

Question: Trump had also talked about resolving the Ukraine-Russia war…
answer:
Trump has publicly stated that he/she would resolve the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office. This is not likely to happen. But there is great potential for change in the US stance on the Ukraine conflict. Trump’s approach toward Ukraine is still something that has not been fully defined, but it is expected to be quite different from the Biden administration’s approach. Trump has expressed willingness to negotiate an early end to the conflict. Now, how exactly this will work is still unclear.

Question: India’s old neighbours, with whom we have good relations, for quite some time now we have been seeing that they are leaning more towards China. How is all this happening and what impact do we see it having on India?
answer:
The thing to keep in mind is that China is increasing its penetration around the world and especially in its surrounding countries. In 2013, Xi Jinping called the first ‘Diplomacy with Neighboring Countries’ conference. Since then he/she considers the countries around China as his/her strategic periphery. Due to this, the perimeters of India and China meet and how to handle it is a big challenge. India also wants to maintain its influence. There have been some important changes in recent years. China has invested more money in this area than ever before. For example, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the biggest project of the Belt and Road Initiative.

We have a problem with it because it passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Similarly, it has given loans to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Maldives and increased trade. But this trade is one-way. China-Pakistan relations are quite different as the two countries have been supporting each other since 1963, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, launched in 2015, has further strengthened this relationship. Their cooperation in defense and security has also increased. But except Pakistan, India has strong relations with other countries. We should further strengthen these relations because these countries have more comfortable relations with India and not with China.

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