Does Prashant Kishor’s work speak or is it just a mere tongue twister? Look at the track record of electoral understanding

New Delhi: Election analyst Prashant Kishor is constantly in the news for his/her predictions regarding the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections. Along with the big media houses of the country, renowned independent journalists are also asking Prashant Kishore what is going to happen on June 4. he/she is claiming in every interview that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is coming back to power at the Center and Narendra Modi is going to become the Prime Minister for the third time. he/she says that there is no anger visible against BJP and PM Modi on the ground, even if there is mild resentment, BJP does not see any major loss in terms of seats. he/she says that if BJP may lose some seats in its stronghold of North-West India, then it may gain some seats in the South-East. In this way BJP can get a bigger victory in 2019 or even bigger.

BJP opponents disagree with Prashant’s estimates

BJP opponents have raised eyebrows on this. Prashant Kishore also got into an altercation with journalist Karan Thapar who was interviewing for media house The Wire. Karan asked Prashant about his/her analysis and asked how confident he/she was about his/her predictions. he/she said that in May 2022, Prashant Kishore had predicted the defeat of Congress in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, which turned out to be completely wrong, hence he/she is asking how reliable his/her predictions can be this time. So let us also try to know how much Prashant Kishor’s estimates and his/her analytical ability can be trusted. For this, let’s take a look at his/her past predictions and his/her election achievements as a chief strategist for various parties…

I can deal with four like you alone… Prashant Kishor angry at Karan Thapar, chaos on social media

Prashant Kishore’s achievements as an election strategist

1. 2014 Indian Lok Sabha election

Party: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Leader: Narendra Modi
Role: Chief strategist for Modi’s campaign
Result: BJP achieved a historic victory by securing 282 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. For the first time since 1984, a single party won majority on its own.
Success Factors: Focused on Modi’s image as a development-oriented leader, used unique methods of election campaign including ‘chai pe charcha’ and ‘3D rallies’.

2. 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections

Party: Grand alliance of Janata Dal United (JDU), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress
Leader: Nitish Kumar
Role: Chief Strategist
Result: Grand Alliance won 178 out of 243 seats.
Success factors: Created a strong narrative against BJP. Focused on social justice and governance record of Nitish Kumar.

3. 2017 Punjab Assembly Elections

Party: Indian National Congress (INC)
Leader: Amarinder Singh
Role: chief strategist
Result: Congress won 77 out of 117 seats.
Success Factors: Took advantage of anti-incumbency, highlighted issues of drug abuse and unemployment and projected Amarinder Singh as a strong leader.

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4. 2019 Andhra Pradesh Assembly Elections

Party: Yuvajana Shramik Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP)
Leader: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy
Role: chief strategist
Result: YSRCP won 151 out of 175 seats.
Success Factors: Focused on Jagan Mohan Reddy’s ‘Padayatra’ and promises of welfare schemes.

5. 2020 Delhi Assembly Elections

Party: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
Leader: Arvind Kejriwal
Role: chief strategist
Result: AAP won 62 out of 70 seats.
Success Factors: Emphasized Kejriwal’s governance, especially in education and healthcare, and explained to the public that the Aam Aadmi Party’s entire focus would be on the development of Delhi only as the party has no presence anywhere else.

6. 2021 West Bengal Assembly Elections

Party: All India Trinamool Congress (TMC)
Leader: Mamata Banerjee
Role: chief strategist
Result: TMC won 213 out of 294 seats.
Success Factors: Focused on Mamata Banerjee’s local contacts, welfare schemes and countered the BJP’s aggressive campaign. Contrary to BJP’s claim, Prashant Kishor bluntly said that the party would not get 100 seats and in reality BJP was limited to 77 seats. However, P. This was the biggest victory so far for BJP in Bengal.

7. 2015 Delhi Assembly Elections

Party: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
Leader: Arvind Kejriwal
Role: chief strategist
Result: AAP won 67 out of 70 seats.
Success Factors: Focused on local issues, Kejriwal’s clean image and governance promises. However, Prashant Kishor’s participation in this election was limited; AAP largely credited its internal team for the bumper victory.

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Prashant Kishore has also faced some failures as an election strategist.

1. 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections

Party: Alliance of Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP)
Leader: Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav
Role: chief strategist
Result: The alliance won only 54 seats out of 403, with the BJP winning a landslide victory.
Challenges: Failure to effectively counter the BJP’s narrative, internal conflicts within the alliance and inability to strike a chord with the broader voter base.

2. 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly Elections

Party: Indian National Congress (INC)
Leader: Harish Rawat
Role: chief strategist
Result: Congress won only 11 out of 70 seats, while BJP won 57 seats.
Challenges: Strong anti-incumbency wave against the ruling Congress government and effective campaign strategies by the BJP.

3. 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections

Party: Samajwadi Party (SP)
Leader: Akhilesh Yadav
Role: political strategist
Result: BJP formed the government by winning 312 seats, but SP’s performance improved and it won 111 seats. In the 2012 elections, SP had got only 47 seats.
Challenges: The election slogan ‘Kaam Hi Bolta Hai’ was given for SP, but it could not attract the people of Uttar Pradesh. SP could not stand in front of BJP’s very strong organization in the state and its slogans of Hindutva and nationalism.