Desire for change or anti-incumbency wave, understand why the results of Haryana elections are so important?

New Delhi: The results of the assembly elections in Haryana on Tuesday are very important. These results will reveal whether Congress succeeds in snatching one more state from BJP or not. Additionally, these results will also impact the elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where elections are expected to be held soon. According to election surveys and ground reports, Congress’s position seems strong. If Congress wins in Haryana, it will show the strength of opposition parties, especially Congress, in the Hindi heartland. Hindi belt has been a stronghold of BJP for the last decade.

Wave of change in Haryana

Senior journalist Neerja Chaudhary said in an article given in Indian Express, this time the desire for change is clearly visible in Haryana. Even Ahirwal and GT Road areas, which are considered BJP strongholds, may see a close contest. People are expressing this desire for change in their conversations also. he/she gave the example of a driver he/she met at a dhaba in Badshahpur in Gurgaon district, who said, ‘In marketing you are always looking for something new. People are tired of the same old messages… It’s like watching a movie for the sixth time.

What are the internal surveys saying?

Internal surveys of political parties are also telling the same. According to sources, an internal survey of BJP has estimated that Congress may get 60 seats, BJP 20 and regional parties and independent candidates may get 10 seats. Anti-incumbency wave against BJP, unpopularity of Manohar Lal Khattar and inability of new Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini to do anything special may prove beneficial for Congress.

Jat vote against BJP!

This time the Jat community in Haryana, which constitutes about 25% of the population, is seen going with the Congress. In the last elections, the Jat vote was divided between the Congress and regional parties. An atmosphere against BJP had started building in Haryana after the farmers’ agitation against the three agricultural laws. The Jat community participated enthusiastically in this movement. The Jat community was unhappy with the appointment of Manohar Lal Khattar, a Khatri leader from Punjab, as the chief minister in 2014. Last year, the protest by wrestlers against the allegations of sexual exploitation against former BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh also became a major reason for the resentment of the Jat community. The fight of Vinesh Phogat, Sakshi Malik and other women wrestlers became not only a fight for justice but also for Jat respect.

How much influence does Vinesh Phogat have?

Vinesh Phogat, who is contesting from Julana on Congress ticket, has emerged as a new inspiration not only for the girls of the state and the country but also for the male-dominated Jat community. When she was addressing a gathering of men and everyone was listening attentively to her words, it shows a big change coming in the society of Haryana. It is clear that the anger of the Jat community (“Jats say everything on the strength of their teeth”) can prove beneficial for the Congress.

The influence of regional parties decreased

During the election campaign, it was also seen that the influence of regional parties like Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) has reduced. Now it remains to be seen whether Congress will benefit from the weakening of these parties or whether these parties have become weak due to the revival of Congress? The election results will be able to answer this question. On the other hand, the non-Jat vote bank that brought BJP to power in 2014 and 2019 does not appear to be that strong this time.

Jat vs non-Jat issue

The issue of Jat versus non-Jat has always been there in Haryana politics. But this time the election fight seems to be focused on the anti-incumbency wave. People from non-Jat community are also talking about change. Dalit community can play a decisive role in this election. Although the Jat community has dominated Haryana’s politics, a large section of Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) went with the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. Due to this, Congress was successful in winning 5 out of 10 Lok Sabha seats.

All political parties are trying to woo Dalit voters. Even Jat dominated regional parties have formed an alliance with Dalit parties. If Congress government is formed then Jat-Dalit tension can become a problem for it.

Dalit vote will prove decisive

A group going to vote for the Congress in a Dalit colony of Sohna Assembly constituency in Gurgaon district advocated making the party’s Sirsa MP Kumari Selja the Chief Minister. Selja comes from the Dalit community and being a woman may give her an advantage. These people were already thinking about who would run the government and believed that if Selja had “sit at home” as she did for almost two weeks, “then the BJP would have won”. They fear that if Bhupendra Singh Hooda becomes the Chief Minister, the “Jatshahi” will return.

Three leaders submitted their claim for the post of CM

Along with Hooda and Randeep Singh Surjewala, Selja has also staked claim for the post of Chief Minister. However, the three leaders say that only the high command will take the final decision in this regard. But many people, including the Dalit voters of Hari Nagar, feel that the high command has already made up its mind. Hooda, who had a strong hold on the state unit, had his/her say in ticket distribution.

Even if Hooda becomes chief minister again, he/she will not be able to exercise complete discretion this time like he/she did during his/her 10-year tenure from 2005 to 2014. Because this time there is Narendra Modi government in Delhi and Rahul Gandhi’s stature has also increased. Hooda has promised to take all the ’36 communities’ along and give an inclusive government. At one time he/she had even talked about making four Deputy Chief Ministers.

The Dalits of Hari Nagar have suggested a solution to this problem of Congress. If Hooda is made the Chief Minister, then such a formula of power sharing should be made which can be implemented and by which Hooda will listen to Selja and also follow him/her (Sailja).