Delhi or Beijing… where can talks take place to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine?

New Delhi: There is hope for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he/she is ready for peace talks with Ukraine. he/she said this at a time when Ukraine has taken action in Russia’s Kursk region and Moscow has carried out retaliatory air strikes. A Ukrainian military training center was targeted in these attacks, in which more than 50 people were killed and hundreds were injured. Putin has named India, China and Brazil among the countries that can mediate in peace talks. Experts say that India can be a better mediator than China because New Delhi’s stance is more fair than Beijing.

Russia ready to negotiate with Ukraine about war

Addressing the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 5, Putin said that the agreements that could not be implemented during the talks held in Istanbul in March 2022 could become the basis for future peace talks. Putin said, “Are we ready to negotiate with them (Ukraine)? We have never refused to do so, but not on the basis of some temporary demands, but on the basis of the documents that were decided in Istanbul and actually started.”

India will help end the Russia-Ukraine war

he/she also said that he/she is in constant touch with India, China and Brazil regarding the Ukraine war. he/she said that these countries are making serious efforts to resolve the military conflict that has been going on for more than two years. Putin’s statement came a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine. This visit has increased speculation that New Delhi can help start a new dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. Experts say that India has an upper hand over China in the matter of mediating in peace talks because New Delhi’s stance is relatively more impartial than Beijing.

Will Putin give more preference to India than China?

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia newspaper that India could help start a dialogue on Ukraine. Emphasising on the friendship between Modi and Putin, he/she said the Indian prime minister could take the lead in getting information directly from the participants in the conflict as he/she holds frank talks with Putin, Zelensky and the US leaders.

PM Modi’s diplomacy will work

PM Modi visited Moscow in July this year, where he/she told Putin that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. he/she then visited Kiev in August, during which he/she reiterated India’s willingness to contribute in every possible way to an early return to peace. On his/her return to India, Modi spoke to Putin and conveyed India’s readiness to actively support any political or diplomatic solution.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Prime Minister Modi’s relations with Putin, his/her Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky and the US provide India with an excellent opportunity to exert its pressure in global affairs, to use its influence which will push the Americans and the Ukrainians to use greater political will and move forward on the path of a peaceful settlement.

What is India’s stand?

India has been consistently maintaining that it will not initiate any peace process on its own and will mediate only if it is asked to do so. New Delhi has also stressed that lasting peace is possible only if both sides are involved in any initiative. However, for India to play any role it is important that Zelensky also agrees to it. Zelensky had suggested during Modi’s visit that India could consider hosting the next peace summit, but then he/she ruled India out as he/she insisted that only a country that had endorsed the joint communiqué at the first summit could host.

How much impact will Modi’s popularity have?

Modi emerged as the world’s most popular political leader earlier this year, with a 78% approval rating in India, according to a survey report released by US business intelligence company Morning Consult. he/she overtook outgoing US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, who had 37% and 23% approval ratings in their respective countries, respectively. A CNN report in March said Modi played a key role in preventing a nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022. While Russia has denied this, it has neither been confirmed nor denied by India.

Moreover, Modi’s friendship with the Russian President is well-known worldwide. At an event in Moscow in June 2023, Putin described Prime Minister Modi as a great friend of Russia and said that his/her ‘Make in India’ campaign has had a really impressive impact on the country’s economy. Modi was also among the few international leaders who congratulated Putin on his/her re-election in March this year. Putin had registered a landslide victory in the election, further strengthening his/her already strong grip on power. A statement from the Ministry of External Affairs had said that while discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Modi reiterated India’s consistent position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward. On the sidelines of the SCO summit in Uzbekistan last year, Prime Minister Modi had told Putin that the 21st century is not an era of war. Apart from this, India has abstained from Ukraine-related resolutions and voting at the United Nations more than half a dozen times.

What do the experts say?

Shayari Malhotra, Associate Fellow for Europe Affairs at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), believes that India has better chances than China in mediating or brokering peace in the Ukraine war. This is because India is a relatively neutral player compared to China, which signed an unlimited partnership with Russia in February 2022, just before Moscow started the war. China is also assisting Russia’s war efforts by supplying dual-use items. India, on the other hand, has close ties with both Russia and the West, which is assisting Ukraine’s war efforts and hence India can play the role of a bridge power.

At the same time, India has been calling for dialogue and diplomacy, supporting peace. Malhotra further says, India has made it clear that it does not accept the violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Therefore, if India attempts mediation, it will be taken more seriously than China based on India’s overall stance on the war. However, the current time is not favorable for mediation or dialogue as both sides have not yet reached that point in the war. Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region has changed the situation. The upcoming US elections and their results can also play a major role in changing the dynamics and trajectory of this war.