Congress is not the only obstacle in the way of Modi’s hat-trick, but Congress’s friends or enemies can become an obstacle

New Delhi: The 44-day long Lok Sabha elections, the Maha Yagya of 2024, have been completed. Now everyone is waiting for June 4, when the results will come. The question that is arising in everyone’s mind is whether the BJP will return to power for the third consecutive time? The BJP itself is claiming to cross 400, but there are 5 states in the way of its claim, which can turn anything upside down. Actually, in these 5 states, the BJP is not directly competing with a national party like Congress. It is seen getting tough competition from regional parties in these states. In this case, only UP is an exception, where despite competing with regional parties, the BJP has been getting big victories. The fate of the BJP will be decided on the basis of performance in these five states. At the same time, the Congress-led All India Alliance is also claiming its victory. It remains to be seen which way this camel of victory sits?

Will the lotus bloom in 5 states or will it wither, this is the big question

According to experts, BJP is stuck in these 5 states of West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Odisha and Maharashtra. It is feared that the fate of BJP rests on these 5 states. Because in other places, either BJP is seen gaining a lead or its performance has not been very good in the last Lok Sabha elections. Only 165 seats of these 5 states will decide the fate of BJP.

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Where there is a direct competition with Congress, BJP benefits more

According to Rajiv Ranjan Singh, a professor at Delhi University and a close observer of political trends, if we analyse the results of the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got a lot of advantage in those states where it had a direct contest with the Congress. For example, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all the 138 seats in such states. Whereas, in the 2014 elections, it won 121 out of 138 seats.

Congress suffers huge loss in face-to-face fight

An analysis of the victory figures of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections shows that there were 190 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections where the Congress had a direct fight with the BJP. Out of these 190 seats, the Congress was able to capture only 15 seats. Whereas, the BJP won the remaining 175 seats.

BJP’s victory margin in 144 seats is more than 10 percent

The special thing is that out of the 175 seats on which BJP won in a direct contest with Congress, the margin of victory was more than 10 percent in 144 seats. That is, in the remaining 31 seats that BJP won, the margin of victory was less than 10 percent.

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There can be a tough competition from Trinamool in West Bengal

In West Bengal, BJP’s fight has been directly with the ruling Trinamool Congress. There are 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal. In the 2019 elections, BJP had to face tough competition from Trinamool. Trinamool had won 22 seats. BJP and PM Narendra Modi have focused a lot on Bengal this time too. That is why a close contest is being predicted here.

This time RJD can give a big challenge in Bihar

Bihar has a total of 40 Lok Sabha seats. Here too, BJP is competing with regional party RJD. Last time, BJP had won 39 out of 40 seats here. But, with the activeness with which RJD’s Tejaswi Yadav has taken charge of the election this time, it will be very difficult for BJP to repeat its previous performance here. Even though BJP has got the support of JDU this time, but the way Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been changing sides, JDU voters may get divided.

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BJP faces tough competition from Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra

There are a total of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra. In 2019, the NDA won 41 seats. Here the BJP contested on 25 seats and won 23. At the same time, its ally Shiv Sena also contested on 23 seats and won 18. But now the scenario has changed. This time there is a Mahayuti alliance with the BJP, in which Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are with the BJP. The Mahayuti is competing with the Maha Vikas Aghadi, in which Sharad Pawar’s NCP is with the Congress and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. In such a situation, it is very difficult to say which side the voters will be in.

Will BJP break its previous record in Assam?

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Assam, BJP had won 9 out of the total 14 seats. Congress had won only 3 seats. In 2014, BJP had won 7 seats in Assam and Congress had won only 3 seats. This time the fight in Assam is considered difficult because the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is becoming a big issue there. All India United Democratic Front is also giving tough competition there.

Close fight with BJD in Odisha

In Odisha, BJP is in direct competition with the ruling BJD. In 2019, BJP had an alliance with BJD, then BJP won 8 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha. At the same time, BJD captured 12 seats. Congress had to be satisfied with just 1 seat.