China is again increasing India’s tension in Doklam! What kind of game is Bhutan playing with the dragon? Know each and every thing

Jayanta Kalita, New Delhi: Unpredictability and secrecy are hallmarks of China’s foreign policy. According to a recent report, seven years after the withdrawal of Chinese troops from Bhutan’s strategic area Doklam Plateau, Beijing has constructed at least 22 villages and hamlets in the area. The news has raised concerns among observers of China affairs in Delhi. In 2017, there was a 73-day standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in Doklam, located near the tri-junction between India, Bhutan and China. India had lodged a strong protest against China’s attempt to build a road there. The reason for this was that it could increase the strategic weakness of the Siliguri Corridor. It is a narrow land route between the mainland and northeastern states of India.

Chinese manufacturing exposed near Doklam

Although the border standoff ended with the withdrawal of troops, an October 2024 report published by ‘Turquoise Roof’, a network of Tibetan analysts, has revealed an increase in Chinese construction activity near Doklam. Notably, Thimphu had indicated in March 2023 that it was close to concluding an agreement with China related to the exchange of territory.

Months later, the two sides reportedly signed a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ on Delimitation and Demarcation outlining the responsibilities and functions of the Joint Technical Committee on the Bhutan-China border.

Many questions before India

On paper, Bhutan cannot leave areas near Doklam without India’s consent as the 2007 India-Bhutan Peace Treaty requires India to respect India’s security concerns. This raises many questions before us – Did China force Bhutan to give up the area near the Indian border?

Did Thimphu inform New Delhi about the construction work being done by China near Doklam during the Bhutanese Prime Minister’s recent visit to India or was the matter hushed up to avoid embarrassment? These questions are important because India and China are in the process of resolving their border dispute in eastern Ladakh. Under this, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing and had ‘important discussions’ on 18 December.

hidden dragon

• China has built 22 villages and hamlets within Bhutan’s borders between 2016 and 2024.
• Seven of these cross-border villages are being constructed from early 2023.
• Three out of 19 villages are being upgraded to towns
• China has relocated approximately 7,000 people to these previously uninhabited areas of Bhutan. An unknown number of officers, construction workers, border police and military personnel have also been kept.

How China ‘grabbed’ Bhutan’s land

China has resolved land border disputes with its 12 other neighbours. However, India and Bhutan are the two countries with which it is yet to sign border agreements. In 1990, China reportedly offered a deal whereby Beijing would give up its claims to Bhutan’s north-eastern areas in exchange for Thimphu giving up areas in the west, including the Doklam Plateau.

Although India’s old friend Bhutan did not agree to this agreement at the time, China has gradually encroached on the disputed areas over the years. Analysts call this ‘salami slicing’.

What are experts saying

According to the report ‘Coerced Diplomacy: China’s Cross-Border Village in Bhutan’ by Robert Barnett, research fellow at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, since the 1990s Beijing has made six attempts to annex Bhutan’s territory. Dimensional strategy has been adopted. It said that in the first phase, China sent Tibetan herders to the disputed lands, who drove Bhutanese herders out of those areas.

In the second phase, herders built huts or shelters in disputed areas, ‘Turquoise Roof’ reports. In the third phase, military foot patrols were sent to those areas, ostensibly to assist those herders. In the fourth phase, temporary structures were built for use as military posts, which were later upgraded into permanent structures.

The fifth phase began around 2004. During this period ‘roads were built across the claimed territories, connecting outposts with cities within Tibet (China)’. Construction of villages began in those areas in 2016.

A raw deal for Bhutan?

The October 2023 agreement was signed during the visit of Bhutanese Foreign Minister Dr. Tandi Dorji. he/she had held talks with Sun Weidong, former Chinese Ambassador to India and current Vice Foreign Minister, during the 25th round of border talks between the two countries. China and Bhutan do not have diplomatic relations, but maintain contacts through periodic visits by officials.

Barnett writes that by 2023 the Bhutanese government ‘had no choice but to accept most of China’s negotiating demands.’ But long before Bhutan was forced to enter into an agreement involving the exchange of territories, China had increased cross-border construction activity. Barnett argues kf China is now less likely to return to Bhutan the areas where it has built villages. Those areas include about 80% of the disputed territory that has been taken over by China.

22 villages and settlements of China

Now there are 22 such villages and hamlets. Citing satellite imagery, the report claims that these settlements consist of about 752 residential blocks. These are divided into an estimated 2,284 residential units. Each of these is suitable for a family sized unit. To fill these units, Chinese authorities have relocated or are currently relocating approximately 7,000 people to these previously uninhabited areas of Bhutan. There are also an unknown number of officers, construction workers, border police and military.

To build these villages, China has occupied about 825 square kilometers of land, which was earlier within Bhutan. It covers about 2% of Bhutan’s area. Earlier this year, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that China’s rapid expansion of villages in the area disputed with Bhutan began as part of Beijing’s poverty alleviation plan, which plays a dual national security role.

Why is this a matter of concern for India?

Kalpit Mankikar, Fellow of China Studies at Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, says it is a matter of concern for India that China is building settlements on the border with Bhutan. Such activities are gray zone activities which are the identity of China. They argue that the establishment of Chinese villages and infrastructure is an attempt to change the status quo and expand China’s strategic reach in the region.

The Doklam plateau has been the focal point of these tensions. In 2017, a standoff occurred when China attempted to build a road through the region. This was opposed by India and Bhutan due to security concerns. Mankikar says that although the immediate conflict was resolved, China’s continued infrastructure development in these areas due to their proximity to the Siliguri Corridor could have an impact on India’s security.

China can open new fronts

According to Sriparna Pathak, associate professor of China Studies at OP Jindal Global University, the message here is not just for Bhutan, but more importantly, it is for India. he/she said that although Beijing has withdrawn its troops from Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh, China may open new fronts of war against India. he/she said that this has always been the pattern with China.

Pathak says these incidents in Bhutan are just the tip of the iceberg. In the near future, when China wants to recruit Gorkhas into its army, it could trigger conflict in the central region, which is close to Nepal. Engulfing India from all sides, even militarily, will become the new norm as India ramps up border infrastructure. It is also refusing to give more land to China.

How did the Doklam standoff subside?

• Thirteen rounds of diplomatic talks were held between India and China to resolve the 2017 military standoff in Doklam. In conversation:
• India opposes Chinese claim of sovereignty in Doklam area
• Told Beijing that its action represents a significant change in the status quo, which has serious security implications for India.
• Trijunction point determined unilaterally

Salami Slicing – China’s tried and tested strategy

Pathak believes that Bhutan has not deliberately given its territory to China. Whereas China has built 22 villages illegally and secretly. In this way 2% of Bhutanese territory was taken. She emphasizes that Bhutan has not knowingly agreed to this. This is China’s common tactic of salami slicing, be it on the borders of India, Bhutan or in the South China Sea.

Pathak says that Bhutan itself has said that the decision on the Doklam issue will be taken on a tripartite basis. The Prime Minister of Bhutan visited New Delhi in early December. Met Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar. Although only the economic aspect of relations between the two countries has been discussed in the media, China’s covert activities must have certainly been a topic of discussion between the two sides.

According to China experts, the reason why this matter did not come to light is probably that Bhutan has refused to publicly accept that China has entered its sovereign territory. She further says that any kind of reporting on this issue would mean harming Bhutan’s reputation. Bhutan is a treaty partner of India.