Wednesday, February 19th, 2025

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives… Why will India have to take bold steps to counter China in the Indian Ocean?

New Delhi : The year 2024 will be recorded in history as the year India lost its closest ally Sheikh Hasina due to street protests led by Islamists. At the same time, her worst nightmare of being exiled to India also came true. In the last 15 years, Hasina had often been afraid that Islamists supported by foreign powers would try to eliminate her. Because of this he/she will once again have to seek exile in India. Although some of the complaints against Hasina’s rule were genuine, the manner in which she was removed was nothing short of a coup. This dealt a major blow to India’s interests in Bangladesh.

India’s challenge in Bangladesh

India now faces a difficult task of protecting its interests in Bangladesh. That too at a time when the ruling military junta in Myanmar is rapidly losing its grip. The emerging scenario is destabilizing India’s eastern neighbourhood. This is opening the way for forces outside the region to make inroads. This has been felt by successive Indian governments as an encroachment into India’s sphere of influence.

While India has formed partnerships with like-minded countries to counter-balance China’s long-term plans in the Indian Ocean region. India has often maintained its dominant role as the most important player and net security provider in the region.

Dependence on interim government

With favorable arrangements in Bangladesh, India undertakes projects that ensure a win-win situation for both parties. , This includes cross-border energy and connectivity initiatives. Hasina’s sudden departure has left the fate of some of these projects hanging in the balance, while the interim government is yet to take a decision on cross-border initiatives.

The presence of anti-India and fundamentalist elements in the interim administration is not only a headache for the security of the states bordering Bangladesh but also a risk to the achievements of the last 15 years. Holding early elections in Bangladesh, which will bring elected representatives to power, is essential for regional security and stability in the Bay of Bengal.

Army’s influence is decreasing in Myanmar

The reduction of military influence in Myanmar by 2024 was another blow to India’s regional calculations. In that context, the formula launched by Thailand involving all of Myanmar’s immediate neighbors could not have come at a better time. Like Thailand and China, India would also like to avoid power vacuum in Myanmar.

Maldives came on back foot

However, developments in India’s southern neighbors Maldives and Sri Lanka have forced New Delhi to rejoice. Mohammed Muizzu government in Maldives sought economic assistance from India after anti-India rhetoric. It concluded with the state visit of the President to New Delhi.

This major change in bilateral relations was unimaginable in the first few months of 2024. In this, some ministers of Muizzu government continued their India Out campaign. India was also asked to end its ‘military presence’ in Maldives. The Muizzu regime eventually realized the important role of New Delhi in promoting its economy. It is important to keep a close eye on the Maldivian economy as it is still weak.

Relations with Sri Lanka will remain strong

In Sri Lanka, the victory of Aruna Kumara Dissanayake has ensured that close relations between the two countries will continue. Colombo is seeking Indian investment across all sectors as the island nation is determined to revive its economy. Dissanayake, during his/her recent visit to New Delhi, had told our associate newspaper ET that his/her government would not allow any step that would be detrimental to India’s security interests. The next steps may see more Indian investment in Sri Lanka to contribute to its economic reconstruction efforts.

Diplomatic success with China

The major diplomatic success of the Modi government in 2024 was the border agreement for patrolling rights and the beginning of the process of stabilizing relations with China. This had reduced after the Galwan episode. The Kazan summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping started a process of improving relations. This can lead to a balanced and pressure-free economic partnership.

Within two months of the Kazan meeting, meetings between the two foreign ministers and national security advisors took place. This reflects the intentions of both sides ahead of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between India and China and the SCO summit hosted by China.

A lot of effort and rounds of meetings were required to reach an agreement between India and China, while New Delhi tried to stick to the principle of its strategic autonomy. China was trying to build stronger economic ties to increase its financial resources. Still, the taste of halwa comes only after eating it. A balanced approach is needed to normalize relations. Also, the focus should be on building trust before starting work on ambitious plans.

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